Member Info for Seeing-2020

Q1 (quarter ending Sept 25) Seeing Machines achieved 510k units

To get to 750k they need an increase of 240k units

So what do we know

Automotive

- general safety regulations mandate DMS from July 2026 in Europe

- OEMs would need to ramp up production several quarters in advance

- SM are "in production" with the top 3 (by volume) VW, Stellantis & Renault

Thank you LIF, just sharing my workings hopefully its useful for some people.

Cashflow breakeven.

Its just a matter of time now, is it next week, or next month.

The company are very clear what is required

Automotive license revenue (95%+ margin)

750,000 cars on the road in a quarter

Guardian Gen3 Sales (40-50% margin + high margin ARR on the monitoring)

6,000 units sold in a quarter

So clearly some unknowns, but one can SEE the potential value of this contract alone and how transformational it could be for a company the size of Seeing Machines

A 5 year contract

Hardware

Revenue $56m

Monitoring $55m

Margin

Hardware $22m

Monitoring $40m

3 year contract

Revenue

Hardware $56m

Monitoring $33m

Margin

Hardware $22m

Monitoring $24m

A 1 year contract:

Revenue

Hardware $56m

Monitoring $11m

Margin

Hardware $22m

Monitoring $8m

So the total of the contract would then depend on the contract life. SM Guardian contracts tend to be 1-5 years.

I will model 3 options:

The margin on that $11.6m would again need an assumption, the margin is "very high" on monitoring and one would expect it improves further with Gen3 as less false positives.

So my prudent assumption is 70%

$11.6m * 70% = $8m

I would expect Amazon would negotiate a volume discount, I am assuming $1m per 6k cost to Amazon

70,000/6,000 * $1m = $11.6m ARR

The company said at the Townhall in April

"Every 6k units sold adds $1.8-2m of ARR"

Then we have the important monthly monitoring fees, this works akin to a saas model and produces ARR (annual recurring revenue).

Hardware only:

Revenue = 70,000 * $800 = $56m

Margin = $56m * 40% = $22m

So, what is the potential volumes?

AI Overview

Amazon has tens of thousands of vehicles across its network, with specific numbers including about 40,000 semi-trucks, 30,000+ branded delivery vans, and approximately 99 Amazon Air cargo planes. The company is also actively expanding its electric fleet, with over 100,000 electric delivery vehicles planned for the road by 2030 through its partnership with Rivian.

Vehicle numbers by type:

Semi-trucks: Approximately 40,000

Delivery vans: Over 30,000 branded vans worldwide

Cargo planes: Around 99 in the Amazon Air fleet

Electric vehicles (EVs):

Amazon has deployed nearly 50 heavy-duty electric trucks in Southern California.

The company has started to deploy the UK's largest-ever order of electric trucks, with 160 eHGVs joining the network there.

A larger goal is to have 100,000 electric delivery vehicles on the road by 2030.

Hardware element

Stifel have estimated the ASP at $800

Margin, Stifel estimated at 40%

What's the potential value of the Amazon deal?

what's the evidence

Paul said "high 10's of thousands of units"

Thats a fair point, but we would still need the monitoring "sale" to the operator, in this example Amazon.

If I was Jeff I would get Rivian and SM talking

Seeingisbelievin, you have my sympathy.

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I noticed a change of tone on Auto contracts, from "decsions expected" to "awards in next month or two"

Awards not decsions