Member Info for Seeing-2020

https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2020/04/23/when-your-car-can-see-more-you-can?cmpid=1946&linkId=87439804

Maaaxxx, tbh I had almost forgotten about FCA, this was our RNS in Feb 2019

"Seeing Machines is working alongside a major Tier 1 partner to deliver the new program via its highly scalable FOVIO Chip, with mass production scheduled from late 2020, and an estimated lifetime revenue of A$6M for the initially planned car models. While classified as a small value program (according to previously provided guidelines), this initial OEM win is considered strategic with a significant potential for volume/model expansion with increasing demand for driver monitoring systems, globally. It should be noted that volume projections can change materially and, as is typical in automotive industry contracts, there are no guarantees on the level of overall revenues beyond engineering milestone payments."

To me this looks like its due later in 2020. Ford F-150 was due to launch on 29th April and is now rumoured for June (which fits with the July production and Q3 from Veoneer).

The good news from all this is we have a number of Sop's (start of production) this year and (apart from upfront license or NRE) thats when our cash starts flowing inward.

my best guesstimates
1) Ford F-150 - launch June, production July
2) Mercedes S Class , Launch & Sop Sept
3) FCA - RAM? - Sop late 2020
4) Byton - Sop 2020

If I was looking in on this from Japan I would be thinking "actually these guys can deliver the Chip and get to Sop"

Gazza, thank you for saying that.

I was thinking my 4 hours of research on Aviation got no comments . I'm glad you found it helpful.

I share so someone else doesnt have to do the same thing.

So then I looked at L3 in a bit more detail, questions I had for myself
- are they stable ?
- is their financial position strong ?

Things I found
1) They merged with Harris last year and became a much larger organisation L3Harris $41bn market cap
https://www.harris.com/investors

2) They sold a business in Feb 2020 for $1bn cash
https://www.airport-technology.com/news/l3harris-airport-security-business-leidos/

3) They are helping out US businesses, so clearly they are very stable
https://www.army-technology.com/news/l3harris-supports-us-suppliers-and-regional-economies-during-covid-19/

Next financial results due out Tuesday 5th May

So I found a very useful website called flight global that does an Aviation 'census' report

2 reports I downloaded
a) Civil Simulator Census 2019
b) Military Simulator Census 2019

Key Finding
1) 1,351 Civil simulators ; CAE 56% , L3 19%
2) 2,800 Military Simulator; CAE 21%, L3 18%

So Military is double Civil, that surprised me, and our client L3 is a very big player.

With all obvious issues with Civil aviation its very heartening to me that the bigger market is military as by definition thats a government backed market.

I went on a bit of an Aviation [research] journey yesterday, I thought I would share my findings , as it surprised me

The facts I started with
1) 4,000 + retrofit opportunity for FFS (full flight simulators) - Pat Nolan CMD
2) We have a contract announced with L3 Commercial - 12th Dec 2018 RNS

My incorrect assumptions
1) Civil aviation is the majority of that 4,000
2) L3 are relatively small compared with CAE

I never understood this, I asked many people and no one can explain it

https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/07/gm-cruise-raises-1-5b-at-a-19b-valuation-from-softbank-and-honda/

"This investment increases Cruise’s post-money valuation to $19 billion, inclusive of SoftBank’s previously announced investment commitment. Cruise has secured capital commitments totaling $7.25 billion in the past year, according to the company.

Esc, I think we have seen press stuff on the 22 models. Nothing announced from SM, but imo we would continue to provide the DMS for supercruise.

I was always amazed GM paid $1bn for Cruise and with Softbank investment it went to something crazy like $15bn (from memory).

DMS will be in all cars in the next few years, the autonomous cars on the other hand, who knows.

Part 3 , the final part

The challenge for car companies is to aggressively promote car sharing when what they really want to do is sell cars. Car companies spend billions of dollars on advertising and incentives to sell cars. Car sharing is a hobby and it is a hobby that, should it become too successful, could threaten the primary business.

In the end, it all comes back to Tesla. Tesla has already solved this problem. Tesla Network has car sharing and ride hailing baked into its long-term plans as an inherent function built into the vehicle. Car sharing and ride hailing, when available directly from Tesla, won't require additional hardware, a new organization or a new brand - it will simply be an extension of the Tesla value proposition.

This was the opportunity presented by Maven - to be an inherent part of all GM vehicles and an integrated part of the GM value proposition - perhaps under the OnStar brand. This is the core of the missed opportunity.

The shuttering of Maven is an ominous note to be struck within the wider GM family. GM is burning $250M/quarter at its Cruise Automation self-driving car unit in San Francisco.

GM has its own, in-house automated driving initiative in Super/Ultra Cruise. Super Cruise and Ultra Cruise Level 2 automated driving features are already being deployed on GM vehicles - with 22 models expected to be outfitted with the technology by the end of 2021. Super and Ultra Cruise are being developed with unique mapping and localization technology unlike anything Cruise Automation is working on.

GM has clearly indicated that the Cruise Automation path to market is not an aftermarket kit or fitment on mass produced, consumer-oriented vehicles - it is a full-blown robo-taxi. GM's in-house team - at the Warren Tech Center - is already delivering a value proposition, Super Cruise, for which consumers are paying...happily.

By comparison, Cruise is looking like an expensive distraction and, like the $500M Lyft investment, a gamble. As a separate operation, like Maven, Cruise may find itself cut loose if not shut down - though Softbank, Honda, and other investors will have a say. With the termination of Maven, GM has shown, once again, it is able to cut its losses. In the time of COVID-19, though, we are starting to get close to the bone.

Part 2

Neither Maven nor Lyft brands were leveraged on the OnStar platform or as part of GM's Global Connected Consumer group, within which OnStar resides. There might have been a scenario where every GM vehicle was enabled for Lyft or Maven activation. In fact, the OnStar brand - in which GM has invested hundreds of millions of dollars over more than two decades - could have been repositioned as a mobility brand.

Such a strategy would have superseded Elon Musk's plans to launch Tesla Network automated shared vehicles via over-the-air software update. OnStar could have begun its evolution and return to being a brand-defining service for General Motors. But, no, that didn't happen either.

Without a plan to leverage Maven through GM's fleet operations, its dealer operations, or as a brand builder and customer finder, Maven meandered into irrelevance and found its meaning as a cost center - a science experiment. Maven couldn't absorb large volumes of off-lease vehicles; it couldn't pioneer new car models to be shared from splashy city center showrooms; it couldn't redefine car sharing.

Maven was a careful, cautious, foray into an arena dominated by local community supported car sharing operators, pure plays, and rental car companies. Rental car companies, in particular, kept the pressure on in what is a low margin marketplace.

Car sharing is a capital intensive business requiring millions of dollars to support wheels on the street. Add in the logistical element of cleaning, insuring, repairing, recovering, and paying for parking and parking infractions and there is precious little cash left over.

The final blow for car sharing operators lacking patience is the inability to drive volume. Yandex is one of the few operators in the world that has found the magic wand to drive customer interest in shared cars - super cheap rates. For GM, such a strategy would only stimulate the bleeding. It would also undermine the company's primary business: selling cars.

Part 1

Changing the automotive industry for the better - saving lives, fuel, money, time

General Motors' announced shut down of the Maven car sharing service was hardly a surprise, especially coming in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the time of its demise, Maven was only operating in four or five cities, down from a high of 17. The venture was doomed from the start, and its departure is a cautionary tale for Toyota, Renault, BMW, Daimler and other auto makers flirting with car sharing.

General Motors told the Automotive News that it learned a lot from Maven and its sister division Maven Gig. The group did collect vehicle data to track charging and usage of Bolt EV's on the Maven Gig platform and GM got its first real taste of running a connected fleet of vehicles and directly managing a B2C service.

The reason that Maven was doomed from day one is the fact that it was born an orphan. Maven was never part of existing GM operations. Though run by executives drawn from GM's fleet division it was not part of GM's fleet operation. Though leveraging OnStar's connectivity and call center, Maven relied on its own add-on hardware for vehicle access and customer service was separate from OnStar.

Stunning to me from day one was the introduction of the Maven brand itself. Though vaguely clever, GM's marketing executives must have realized that it would take millions of dollars to build the Maven brand into a recognizable corrolary brand under the General Motors umbrella.

By opting for the Maven brand and standing up a separate team outside of any existing division and without sufficient marketing support or C-level support within the larger organization, Maven was left to subsist on its own with no particular direction. What was Maven's purpose in life? Was it intended to attract new customers to the brand? Was it intended to open new markets? Was it a platform to trial new technologies and business models? Was it intended to fend off competitive threats? Was it intended to supply cars to Uber/Lyft/Via drivers? Was it intended to provide loaner cars for dealers - potentially displacing existing Uber/Lyft or rental car providers?

None of this was clearly defined. Making matters more confusing was the failure to integrate the Maven strategy with the $500M investment in Lyft - that is now looking more ill-conceived than ever.

A Lyft-Maven one-two punch might have been a powerful launch statement for the car sharing offer. GM could have announced its $500M Lyft investment along with the Maven launch with incentives for drivers to use Maven vehicles at attractive rates. Needless to say that didn't happen.

Interesting article about Maven, Cruise, Supercruise

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rogerclanctot_lyft-maven-cruise-super-cruise-toyota-activity-6659409631397371904-mYNu

Buffet, I wouldn't worry about their sp personally. Cash is king and they look to have done a good job protecting cash, they have divested from areas not seen as important, its clear DMS is hugely important for them going forward.

They recently split from Zenuity, at a macro level the "autonomous vehicle" dream could be over when we get out the other side of this. GM also divested Maven and rumours about the future viability of Cruise also.

My prediction ; Cars will have drivers and smartphones and other distractions will still exist

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/veoneer-financial-report-january---march-2020-301046718.html

"Cash balance increased to $970 million due to strong cash flow performance and proceeds from the VNBS-Asia divestiture"

Anyone remember the excitement when we won this DW (it's still out largest win ever ) , "mass production" and it was also our first win for the Chip. Well winning the contract is great but delivering and getting it to production is far more important. Can't wait for the press coverage on the new F-150.

"4 June 2018
Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE, “Seeing Machines” or the “Group”), an industry leader in computer vision technologies which enable machines to see, understand and assist people, has secured a program design win, working with a major Tier 1 partner, with a global US-headquartered automotive OEM.

As a result of the design win, the Group expects to deliver its FOVIO driver monitoring technology into multiple vehicle platforms for mass production from 2020.
The estimated revenue value of this program is over A$50M based on initial included models and lifetime volume projections. The first material production revenue is expected to be recognised in Seeing Machines’2021 financial year. There also remains potential for further program growth based on additional vehicle models added during the program"

Paul has stated we have a July 2020 production launch

Veoneer have stated it's a high performing DMS fir a US OEM

Looks like the best selling truck in the world to me, which is also the best selling car or truck in USA

Click on the presentation

https://www.veoneer.com/en/investors

Slide 10: Q3 20 launch

"Driver Monitoring System
•Drowsiness, Distraction,
Attention Zones,
Identification, Precise Eye Gaze
•Lead launch: US based OEM

If you click on the link in the linkedin article the paper is worth a read

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rodney-mudford-b9097b5a_90-days-to-94-fewer-fatigue-events-activity-6659267834029449216-inVT

Last time I remember volume like that was when Pengana (Hunter Hall) shares where taken up.

Total volume today was about 2m apart from that trade so if it's a legitimate trade it wasn't filled today

Also the maths as Lewbo pointed out, £2m / 75m shares is 2.66p not 2.3p, 2.3p was just the mid when the trade showed up on LSE.

Let's seeing we get a TR1, that's the only way we know for sure

Breaking, a week ago you described yourself as a novice who was considering his / her first ever trade.

One week later you offer an opinion on the complexity of market makers.

Give it another week and you will be govenor of the bank of England at current learning curve

I guess they have a new S Class to launch soon enough

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/daimler_our-outlets-across-germany-are-re-opening-activity-6659013273280622592-MV2N