Member Info for Seeing-2020

Ok I have read the AGM resolutions RNS a few times and cant find this 50% thing, I did find the trading days, so clock starts tomorrow .

"*based on the average daily VWAP during the previous 30 trading days"

Maaxx, as WHL pointed out its trading days sk clock starts ticking tomorrow.

Can you post the section on 50% if he hits if a year late, I wasnt aware of that ?

In terms of the press coverage we get that at launch, which I would expect to be pre Sop to encourage orders

Terry, it seems Ford F150 and Mercedes S Class will be in production in 2020 and on the road by 2021, perhaps other models also maybe Byton.

Sop (start of production) is the key milestone for us, we get paid per unit produced not per unit sold. So a slow down in car sales will only impact our revenue if it causes a slowdown in production (which it may do but not as immediate)

Wow, "He noted that the company turns out an F-150 every 52 seconds."

We will be making cash every 52 seconds, 20 years of R&D and now we have a customer paying us every 52 seconds.

I have created a little spreadsheet to track Pauls bonus target, he wins we win its how a CEO bonus scheme should work.

The scheme rules state "an average SP of 6.1p for the 30 trading days to 1st July"

So the clock starts ticking on 19th May, currently the average needed is 6.1p, that will change quickly if SP doesn't move up, current levels until end May and the average needed goes up to 7.33p

Clap for Paul

Steve ,

17th March, forecast reduced for Covid and A$5m cash shortfall identified

1st April, A$8m upfront license fee and Cenkos state we are funded to profit.

"The US$5m upfront non-refundable license fee is worth more than cA$8m and we believe therefore covers the cA$5m cash shortfall to self-financing we estimated in our update from 17 March 2020. "

I'm not expressing any opinions here, just showing I can read

S7, that makes absolutely no sense

They reduced revenue in fleet by A$5m

S7 you are welcome to your own opinion but not your own facts.

17th March Cenkos reduced the Fleet forecast for FY20 due too Covid. See extract below.

1st April they issued their "fully funded" comment following the license deals.

17th March Cenkos
"Installations in 2H/20 will likely be affected by Coronavirus Because of southern hemisphere logistics seasonality (coincidence of summer and Christmas demand peaks), installations were expected to significantly pick up from now until 30 June. We still expect fleet installations to be able to continue in 2H/20, despite supply chain disruption from the Coronavirus, as we estimate the company has already installed another c1500 units since 31 December bringing total connections to c22,000, and it has c5000 units in the current supply chain.

But looking ahead for the next few months, it is clear some transportation fleets will be maxed
out due to stockpiling and increased home deliveries, and this is likely to offset any increased
fleet availability from the reduction in travel in the wake of the corona virus. Additionally,
worker availability for installations is likely to have also reduced and fleet operators and
managers are likely to be cautious on authorising CAPEX and OPEX. So, whilst the company has
contracted revenues (2H/20E total contracted revenues cA$16m) and visibility in its pipeline to
achieve the previous guidance, we have taken a conservative view and effectively halved the
installations forecast for 4Q/FY20 from c5000 to c2500."

Buffet, my estimate would be 4p+ as their average.

I have found holding announcements to account for around 10% of their holding and the average was 4.1p

Indeed, always worth checking how long these knowledgable people have been on LSE and previous posts

TTNYR is a prime example, he makes S7 look genuine
March
"This company has great prospects over the next 5 to 10 years. Hoping to buy some con the cheap next week.

GLA and Keep the faith."

Then a few months later
"Everyone knows its a dog of a share. I also got roped in by the rampers here and have large losses. 

Part of me thinks these rampers must work for SEE in some sort of way like PR. They keep finding obscure magazine articles about little companies no one has heard of installing one or two Seeing machine bits of kit. 

Only a SEE employee could find and post such obscure stuff."

Lombard 1798 fund have a stated policy of taking large stakes in companies and a seat on the board. So this is well planned and makes total sense, its nothing to do with the current sp.

They arent here to talk the price down and try make 20%, we have enough of them already

DT, totally agree , also means they have no plans to sell in the mid term. You dont become 'inside' if you want to sell as it obviously comes with closed periods etc.

We now have over 30% of our shares held by Directors (or the organisation they represent), I assume this will stop any worries (on here) of a cheap takeover.

We have discussed this before, only one Tier One worth partnering with in Korea. Interestingly when they needed a lidar partner they choose the Veoneer lidar partner (velodyne).

So if they needed a DMS partner the Veoneer DMS partner seems logical to me

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191022006225/en/Hyundai-Mobis-Invests-Forms-Partnership-Velodyne-Lidar

Esc, well we have Martyn thinking he is Roger Federer and Viktor doing a rampy note. Hence why I thought it was interesting that he "excludes" Toyota and Ford.

In the same note he claims they will win 50% of VAG, I guess based on their hugely successful design win for the Audi A8 (which never got to Sop), he also claims the recent 4 DW includes Volvo as it mentions Safety and it's a car.

"Smart Eye in late March won four new platforms, whereof two from entirely new OEMs (read
our associated update here). For some of the recently won OEMs, we detected a few
interesting data points in the Q1 report. Smart Eye said the three European premium OEMs
(two existing OEMs and one new) are leading in safety. We think Volvo might be in this group,
simply because it would not make much sense to mention leaders in safety without including
Volvo."

Interesting that in Viktors note this morning he excludes Toyota and Ford from his base case. So if SEYE don't win Toyota or the Ford expansion who does ?

"DMS market and our TAM of
about 70m million cars (excl.
Toyota, Mazda, Iran OEMs and all of
Seeing Machines existing end
customers besides BMW and GM)
which should be compared to the
company's target of 40 percent on a
likely much higher TAM.

We assume
that existing customers can account
for over two thirds of the volumes.
In addition, we assume that Smart
Eye can win 25% of the Chinese
market and ~50% of Volkswagen,
Suzuki, Honda, PSA, Tata and
Mahindra. "

Beef, I think people struggle to understand the tech as you can't say "its the tech in z&y car on sale in the UK"

It will be easier to explain when it's in the S Class.

The real penny dropping moment is when it's in the real high volume models

Ford F Series - SM
Toyota Corolla - tbc
VW Golf - tbc
Honda Civic - tbc
Ford Focus & Fiesta - tbc

That's why the comments by Martyn and Viktor aren't credible, until we know who wins
- Toyota
- VW
- Ford ( expansion)
- Honda

Buffet, the Cenkos forecast assumes no further license deal, imo that's a good way to forecast so ang license deal would be upside. Their Avaition forecast is a total of A$1.3m over the next 3 financial years.

In terms of funded to profit, this is their comment with the latest RNS

"We view today’s licence deal as a positive demonstration of the value of Seeing Machines’ Driver Monitoring technology and the managements’ ability to monetise it. The US$5m upfront non-refundable license fee is worth more than cA$8m and we believe therefore covers the cA$5m cash shortfall to self-financing we estimated in our update from 17 March 2020. For the Tier 1 partner, the license provides greater access to Seeing Machines IP, which de-risks the supply chain to OEMs as well as enabling the Tier 1 to offer more options in terms of integration and
functionality. This will undoubtedly help the Tier 1 secure new DMS business.

Furthermore, it should also help Seeing Machines secure similar deals with other Tier 1 suppliers. Seeing Machines now looksfunded through to profitability, even without including any significant contribution from the Aviation sector, or other specialist operator environments.

We therefore see the current valuation as an attractive entry level for this world leading technology company and iterate our Buy
recommendation and 7.0p price target. We highlight that this valuation is based effectively on Automotive only leaving Fleet and Aviation businesses, which are worth potentially as much, as upside"

Is the key metric, design wins measured in models or programmes ?

Answer is neither, the key metric is getting out tech in production vehicles, compare SM Mercedes and Ford progtess to SEYE JLR (13 models) no progress.

https://www.motor1.com/news/419901/new-ford-f150-facts/

"Ford hasn’t mentioned an official debut date but a recent report suggests production will begin on September 28 at Ford’s Dearborn assembly plant, followed by the F-Series plant in Kansas City on October 26. Provided those dates are accurate, a debut for the new truck should happen by late spring or early summer."

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/04/2021-mercedes-s-class-prepares-to-bloom-as-more-camo-falls/

"Reports from Germany claim the all-new S-Class will be available to order from September 2020, with deliveries to follow in November."