Member Info for seanhunter

I long ago predicted a 77p buy out price for our 85% of Cascabel - reduced to 61p due to the dilution since then.

This isn't the £1.30 or £3 some of you dream of, I know, but please bear in mind that BHP have taken a 6% chunk at 26p a share just by nibbling their way in... so lets keep it real.

Some fantastic posts and analysis today (Savshare, Qualibashi etc), reflecting the fact that the techtonic plates under us are shifting - and for the better. The gloomy future of dilution, spending, dilution, spending I feared has vanished, because it is clear that things are finally starting to move - a very nice surprise in the current copper price downtrend.

I think the scenario laid out by Savshare earlier could be our route to 61p - and fairly quickly too.

My only caveat - this is not a guaranteed "win-win" just yet for us PIs: if there is any nastiness between BHP, Newcrest and Nick, we could be the collateral damage. My biggest fear is that Nick may be too precious and way too willing to cut his nose off to spite his face - and thus ours - by printing more shares to dilute the BHP holding. I hope he talks a good game, but leads us to the best deal we can *realistically* expect for Cascabel in a timely fashion. Sell Cascabel, move on to new targets.

We have a golden opportunity right in our hands, if we don't fumble it. I reckon there's an 80% chance from here of a happy ending, a 20% chance of this ending up with us PIs diluted on the sidelines wondering wtf went wrong. In terms of timeline, I have a feeling the dam has burst, so it could play out very quickly indeed.

GLA

Maybach, without todays news my opinion would have remained pretty much the same.

When the facts change, my opinions change.

Now, you have - I see - been making an absolute fool of yourself harping on at me when I've not even been posting here, accusing me of being MikeBrady etc or someone who simply posts in order to manipulate the share price.

OK, perhaps you are just an emotional, flighty fool who cannot stand discussion - but lets assume you are not. There are plenty of long termers on here who have known me on here for 2 years. They might not like me or my posts, but they know where I always stand regarding dilution and I'm sure they will vouch that I am indeed a genuine poster and not just a troll using different names or someone stupid enough to think I can affect the SP of a £400M company.

I hold here and I also trade. I have always been transparent about that. My views are often strongly expressed, often wrong, but always honest and I only ever post as me.

Now, I honestly don't have time to go round in circles with you, so can I ask you to just give it a rest and stop accusing me of imaginary crimes? Cheers.

My thoughts exactly Shippy, this could be a starting gun, or to mix my metaphors a watershed and a milestone, lol. One of the big boys has shown his hand - this changes everything and clears up a lot of doubt. Fantastic news for LTHs and traders alike - we know what BHP have paid, and that sets a new level from here on in to work around, plus the other big boys will no doubt be very,very aware that things are finally moving again. This is a big big day for SOLG.

On hols at the mo, but great news to wake up to. Welcome onboard BHP!! My very last post on here said we could have done with them involved, hostile are not and whether Nick likes it or not, they are the investors friend and that means us. A most welcome kick up the ass/vote of confidence and positive sign afetr all the drift.

Hopefully a further placing can be avoided now - no more paddling our own canoe rubbish - or at least a further placing now at something decent like 22p from which we should actually bounce nback from for a change.

All short term worries now, this is a gamechanger - manna from heaven - and I expect things to start to develop quite quickly from here on in. Good old BHP - we are cooking by gas now. Fasten seatbelts and GLA.

The most telling this is that the market ascribes ZERO value to the cash Solg holds.

Paddle our own canoe. Ignore us at your peril. Blind Freddy.

I wish to feck BHP had secured a seat on the board. They neef a rocket up their arses.

Nick likes to sit on a huge pile of cash. It guarantees his job and his mates's job for life. It cushions him from criticism.

Dilution coming....

No the same way St Nick didnt provide us with an explanation why he threw us under the bus for 25p when we were at 32p.

It landed us here at 21p.

If you are going to be passive aggressive angry with someone it probably shouldnt be me at No1 in your list.

I didnt dilute us. That was St Nick.

Sean is merely postulating that there will likely be another fundraising soon.

Our CEO likes to sit on a huge pile of cash.

The new shares to raise this cash have to be at a significant discount to current SP.

With SOLG, the market tends to value this new cash in the bank at zero for some reason, but does punish us for the new shares.

Ergo - a placing at 16p to raise another £45million for Nick to chuck on the pile, followed by a price collapse to around 11p.

Just like his 25p placing back at 32p has landed us here at 21p.

I'm just putting it out there. Argue against it if you will. Reason with it. Counter it. But no need to call me a troll, or a fake, or a basher or an "infestor" or "infestation". If that's the way you think - in the language of knee jerk hate, lashing out, mind closed to any views that aren't 100% positive - why on earth would you come on a discussion board? Do you understand what discussion entails?

If you must call me names, Handsome Sean will do nicely thank you. It is the most fitting, I assure you.

"Thank god for the billiton involvement which was derided in 2016. Its giving the market a marker "<br /><br />Wrong Jim.<br /><br />If BHP should offer the same amount of money today for the same % of the company, it would equate to about 16p a share thanks to the 2 recent dilutions. 16p happens to be the highest level I think the next placing will be at. <br /><br />Ongoing dilution - and the willingness to use it as the FIRST choice - is self-evident in its effects. Me pointing that out doesn't make me "negative" or that I've "lost faith". Faith was never part of it - this is a financial investment, not a religious pilgrimage.<br /><br />I see we have a new generation of believers on this board who can brook no criticism of progress or even handle the basics of mining share reality... its notable that some of the older cheerleaders are much quieter these days. <br /><br />I would hope that anyone who has given up on this share has moved on. Those of us who remain invested are entitled to call it as we see it - good or bad or indifferent. If you can't handle other opinions then this probably isn't the game for you as the stockmarket has much bigger shocks up its sleeve for the optimistic investor than people like me warning about dilution.

Some good points there Maybach and well argued... but the long termers on here know me and where I'm coming from. No, I'm not trying to talk the share price down. And, I've said that I'm guessing about certain things. No agenda here, just calling it as I see it. Nick and more cash and more dilution is a no brainer for me.

I've ruffled a few feathers on here in the past - didn't really mean to but my style could be nicer - but I would guess now that many who dismissed me at first are slowly coming round to my way of thinking.

We are a long, long way from the days of the shrill "Ignore us at your peril!!" stuff. Reality set in with me a while back, it is setting in with others now.

Nothing takes away from the bottom line that this could be HUGE.

But let the scales fall from your eyes.

And don't forget earthling that while I like to trade, I do stay in here in the hope that a takeover bid (my target 77p pre dilution, 61p now) will be announced one bright morning in a surprise RNS.

It's not impossible, it's not even that unlikely... and I don't want to be out for it. The risks are multiplying, but that one reward might just be worth it. It seemed tantalisingly imminent once, it may do again.

Bit of a binary bet though - it's either a takeover offer or slow death by dilution.

I had an extra 42000 in at under 22p that I sold for 23.6p. I continue to hold/trade 57000 on a permanent basis.

Knowing that dilution is coming isn't the problem - its knowing whether to be in or out when the hammer falls.

I've seen you post some interesting thoughts on the KAZ board. What a situation there. i was in and out of there for a few months - sometimes in big - but luckily Lloyds fell way into my buying zone and I switched the funds into there, so luckily missed the crash. No more AIM for me.

KAZ is a good example - for the ultra faithful here - of how a CEO and board can put the long, long term interests of the company before the interests of the existing shareholders. Im old fashioned enough to believe that the shareholders ARE the company, but it doesn't always work out like that. One day they just throw you under the bus to pay for their longer term plans. OK if you can live forever and finally get hold of that jam one day, but no investment should put you underwater for years on end.

Earthling won't welcome my post but he has been raising a very important issue re "going for gold".

This change of emphasis is very disheartening for those of us who have seen it before - when the initial promise starts to fade, change the goal. I've seen it in Sula (which also had a CEO called Nick, a saint who could do no wrong in the eyes of the ultra loyalists) where the main direction went from gold, to iron ore, back to gold and then on to (non-existent) coltan, diluting as he went.. The company is now worth about 0.0001% of what it was, and is called African Battery Metals, chasing after lithium or unobtainium of some other such pipedream. It's rarely a good sign.

What happened to the biggest copper discovery in the last 20 years or whatever it is supposed to be?

I think BNC amongst others has hinted on here that Aggy is perhaps turning out to be nothing like we expected. Alpala "improves" in every way, but still doesn't rock the market nor does there seem to be any interested major anywhere on the horizon for the foreseeable future. I'm a great believer in a PEA as a transformative event, but that will take time and money and SOLG is burning through cash on a very broad front - a strategy that manifested itself when Aggy drilling got put back this time last year, and all the work going on on the edges on different tenements, speading our resources more thinly.

All well and good in the very long term - SOLG could easily provide its team with jobs for life. For investors who won't live forever, the payday continues to recede into the distance, jam tomorrow into infinity... unless of course a major strikes. I would hope a PEA might invite such a thing.

Meantime though there is definitely a gravitational pull down on this share - dark matter known to the market but not to us, keeping us in a very tight 21-22p range almost impossible to trade. Me, I suspect a further dilution very very soon. I know NM is sitting on about £40M, but I think a big pile of money is his comfort blanket, more important than short or medium term shareholder value. Just my opinion but I reckon:

A further fundraising of about £45Million in the next couple of months @

281,000,000 new shares at 16p

or

321,000,000 new shares at 14p.

My guess, to guarantee we attract the cash from the kind of hungry sharks and motley collection of shorters we bent over for the last time, it will be the lower figure - and it will knock the SP down to about 11p for a bit.

No sweat of course to the long term holders. This will just be Nick lining up his ducks in a row and playing a blinder. Again.

Thanks very much for that info sxxswe, I haven't contacted them recently to see if it was possible yet. Good to see the process is up and running.

Do you mind me asking what price you got?

Hey hardy78 mate, I think daily volume is just really low on this one - most days one or two biggish trades, some even none.

Glad to hear you have your shares - but it is possible yet to sell them?

I think form your posts you are probably still like me - willing to hold on for a bit to see this rise to 22/23cents at least? What's your intentions short term?

SP is still recovering fom the massive dilution at STEL takeover - which I think took everyone by surprise as it didn't tie in with the 23 cent "theoretical" price quoted before.

Still up nicely on this deal but what a drag this process is - these ones in my SIPP so no hurry, but must be painful for those who needed a quick in-out trade.

HL were fairly good at getting the shares into my account and mmessaging us re. how it was all supposed to work... But it all has dragged on a bit. Not in a hurry to sell as i believe the theoretical post-merger SP quoted of 23cents back at the start of the process is probably fair value and worth holding out for... But come on in this electronic age ot shouldnt take 3 months plus.

Has anyone else been able to sell their NWF shares yet? I'm with HL but last time I tried things were still not ready to go. The £ / AUD$ rate is pretty favourable right now, but it grates that we have missed out on a bid of 20 cents a few weeks back - quite frustrating.

Also, from the UK we have to give instructions to sell overnight - the brokers here haven't covered themselves in glory, and i wouldn't pyt it past the numpties to sell for 15p or whatever, when you have no up to the minute control over it.

Does anyone have experience with this - are we still able to say "sell only at 19 cents or above" etc when leaving a sell instruction?

Cheers guys.

Why hasnt jimiley been committed yet?

In other news Ronin1, fire is very important in human history (I learned this from the Royal Wedding). Without air we couldnt breathe. You need a heart to live. As for copper, the market isnt recognising its supreme value this particular morning.

Added an extra 42000 this morning at an ave of 21.94 and shall be happy to sell at 60p. Actually will sell these at 22.6p. Hopefully this afternoon... I like my jam today.