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Looks like they are now stating 7,800 for Columbus rather than the 6,900 I stated below.

That's an extra 900 bopd at £25 profit gives over £8 million per year extra profit in the bank.

Just wait for the cash to be declared and ongoing production volumes.

BKR was regularly exceeding 20,000 bopd
BK should provide 5,400 bopd
Erskine should provide 4,000 bopd
Rhum 3 could add a further 7,000 bopd
Columbus should add 6,900 bopd

That's over 43,000 bopd or nearly 16 million barrels per year at £25 profit per barrel that's £400 million profit per year.

Similar thoughts to you Sasa that we should be exceeding 4k bopd easily.

Looking back through the production profiles, we see Erskine was regularly exceeding 3,800 bopd which was brought down by shut-ins.

Sets this up for strong future performance through the new pipeline.

Remember that based on the size of our resource and premium grade concentrate, we had a like-for-like valuation against Simandou putting ZIOC at £11.95 per share.

That was EXCLUDING the vast capex difference and doesn't include the higher premium for pellets that we could produce.

Translation: commercial acceptance The tests are there to see if the product is commercially acceptable to the mills. You don't go through such a process without a view of the outcome. Outcome here should be off- take agreement, ideally linked to the prevailing premium iron ore benchmark.

Other miners have P/E ratios over 30 so it will be down to the market to value that. Given the long life - current feasibility study stating 30 years but more likely 90years production once factor in full size of resource - I think 20 could be achievable. As more conservative you could say 10. I think short life assets generally trade around 5/6 as they need to constantly seek new assets, something which Zioc doesn't need to do. If they throw in a special divided on any deal that would be ideal for all holders.

I prefer to look at future earnings per share and work out a potential share price from that.

Stage 1: 12Mtpa = $1,530,000,000

x 0.45 = $688,500,000

x 0.2 = $137,700,00

x 0.78 = £107,406,000

/ 283,201,033 = £0.38

20 x P/E = £7.59 per share

Stage 2: 30Mtpa = $3,885,000,000

x 0.45 = $1,748,250,000

x 0.2 = $349,650,000

x 0.78 = £272,727,000

/ 283,201,033 = £0.96

20 x P/E = £19.26 per share

This is on the assumption we retain 20% of our 50% in return for the new partner to fund our share of the development costs.

$161.50 / tonne for 65% pellets

Stage 1 opex $24/ton

Cold palletisation $10/ton

= $127.5/ton profit

12Mtpa = $1,530,000,000

9 years = $13,770,000,000

Stage 2 Opex costs reduced to $22/ton + $10/ton cold pellets

= $129.5/ton profit potential

30Mtpa = $3,885,000,000

21 years = $81,585,000,000

Total profit over 30 year life = $95,355,000,000 ($95 billion)

Less $4.2billion capex

= $91,155,000,000

ZIOC share = $41,019,750,000

0.78 exchange rate = £31,995,405,000 (£31.9 billion)

283,201,033 shares = £112.98 per share

And remember this is only the 770 MT proven so far, we have further 2.1 BT probable (3x bigger) and 6.9 BT resource (9x bigger)

The next batch of news should firm up some of these cost estimates and help drive the share price higher.

There is no "suspecting" that they are waiting on third parties.

They have told us who they are waiting on in the recent RNS.

Existing port operators (on export costs)
New technology providers (firm cold pelletisation costs - now we can benchmark against hot)
Traditional "hot" pelletisation costs (leverage against the new technology pricing)
Steelmills to confirm commercial acceptance and possible offtake.

All of these are interlinked.

Remember that it's only been just over 2 weeks since the last update:

o Pellet feed concentrate results confirmed a premium product with an iron ore grade of 67.4% and low impurities is capable of being produced at the Zanaga Iron Ore Project ("Zanaga Project") from haematitic upper level orebody layers

o Positive pellet test results from test work on pellets produced using new cold pelletisation technology with potential to provide significant cost benefits versus traditional pelletisation plants. Process launched by Jumelles, with support of Glencore, to ascertain commercial acceptability of Zanaga cold pellets with a range of steel industry customers

o Cost estimations being secured from pellet plant developers for the potential pelletisation component of the EPP project, including assessment of both cold pelletisation and traditional pelletisation solutions

o Initial high level results indicate major capital and operating cost savings through the development of a cold pelletisation plant solution

o High level cost estimates indicate that a traditional pelletisation plant solution may present a viable economic solution in spite of the higher costs

o Logistics routes for the EPP project to two potential exit ports further defined - firm cost estimates under negotiation, with further results expected in Q4 2018

o Study work underway to ascertain overall project feasibility and scope of operations with the objective of defining the EPP's economics

As you can see, all positive steps forward. They are finalising pricing for transport and export through 2 exit ports, finalising commercial acceptance by steelmills (offtake agreements?), exploring cold and hot palletisation (both of which appear to be commercial).

Refocussing their portfolio on fewer strategic assets that generate high levels of return over long periods of time. Generated $10 billion from shale oil sales and pumping $4 billion into their Australian iron ore mine.

They have an investment framework which basically states that if an asset is worth the investment, they will stump up the cash.

As the 5th largest deposit with a world leading 67% FE would ZIOC feature on their list of future targets?

Didn't they state before year end, so would expect within 8 weeks and before the Christmas shut-down.

What news are you awaiting on Sooty?

RoC have now started the process of approving the draft budget into law (Port/SEZ funding anyone?), also note the frequent references to eliminating corruption (requirement of IMF deal).

All looking good on the Congo frontline.

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Senate President Pierre Ngolo stressed on October 15 in Brazzaville at the opening of the 4th budget session that the examination of the draft budget of the State had always been a moment of responsibility.

"In a particular context of crisis like ours, this session is a moment of high responsibility that does not allow us any lightness or arbitration error. Our seriousness, our maturity and patriotism are here all the more put to the test" said Pierre Ngolo.

The Senate Speaker said that, in addition to the draft state budget, this session has, at its order, cases that set the country on a turning point towards transparency, good governance and the fight against corruption. Deviances profusely decried.

The President of the National Assembly Isidore Mvouba, for its part, noted that the Congolese expected their representatives pledges of their will determined to establish the pledges of good governance of public affairs.

At this session, which will end on December 23, nearly a dozen cases will be submitted for consideration by the two chambers of parliament. Among which the draft law on the obligation of declaration of wealth by the citizens elected or appointed to a senior civil service, the draft law establishing the high authority to fight against corruption.

To these projects, is added the draft budget law for the year 2019 and the bill on the code of urban planning and construction.

To facilitate the export of iron ore and other buried in the Congolese subsoil, the country proposes to build a mineral port, according to Louis-Marie Djama, director general of mines:

"We are talking about a port dedicated to minerals because the existing port of Pointe-Noire is already saturated. The government is working to build a mineral port at Pointe Indienne (upstream of Pointe-Noire) to allow everyone to go to this port to make exports of different types of metals. "

In the past Congo exported potash and polymetals. But the share of solid mines in GDP is still very low.

The Congo also wants to build a new railway line between Pointe-Noire and the Mayoko iron exploitation site, because the current one hardly meets the standards.

http://www.rfi.fr/emission/20180620-le-congo-brazzaville-s-apprete-exporter-premiere-cargaison-minerai-fer

Indeed, but further in the article it mentions the following.

"The Republic of the Congo will place plots of land and buildings in the Maloukou Special Economic Zone at the disposal of the mixed-capital company. "

Note: Maloukou is the Brazzavile SEZ

So same principle here, but they are further advanced in how they are funding the Brazzavile SEZ.

Maybe their share of the port could be the freehold to the land... but seems they are not quite that far along yet, but as can be seen, they are making progress with other SEZ.

http://zes.gouv.cg/fr/cooperation-congo-chine

Sooty - it's confirmation of the process they are currently going through to set-up the operating entity that will actually develop the SEZ and Port.

Once this legal entity is created, 1st step will be to finalise financing which will likely be 70% EXIM, 15% CRBC and 15% RoC.

2nd step will be shovels in the ground.

Looks like we are getting close and closer each day.

On the occasion of the state visit that the President of the Republic Denis Sassou-N'Guesso made on 2 and 9 September 2018 in Beijing in the People's Republic of China, the day after the 3rd China-Africa Cooperation Forum, several agreements cooperation agreements have been signed between the Congolese and Chinese governments.

The first agreement entitled "Framework Agreement for the development of the Pointe-Noire Special Economic Zone in the Republic of Congo" was signed, on the Congolese side, by Jean Jacques Bouya, Minister of Planning, Equipment and Territory , Great Works, and Gilbert Mokoki, Minister of Special Economic Zones. On the Chinese side, by Hu Huaibang, representative of China Overseas Infrastructure Development and Investment Corporation Limited (COIDIC).

According to these provisions, this framework agreement determines the principles of the development agreement that will be signed thereafter. It specifies that the Congo and China will create through their respective structures a mixed capital company under Congolese law called "The Developer" which will carry out, in particular, the development, financing, construction in the special economic zone of Pointe-Noire.

The Republic of Congo will grant the developer the exclusive right to develop the Pointe-Noire Special Economic Zone by means of a development agreement.

In addition, the document states that both parties have the right to transfer and dispose of the shares they own in the share capital of the developer in accordance with the shareholders' agreement, before stressing that the participation of the Republic of Congo will be in contributions, either in cash or in kind, under the conditions to be determined by the shareholders' pact.

Columbus (CPR places this at just over 5 year life with 6.7mmboe net to SQZ – although expect this to extend)

40mcfpd / 5,800 boe = 6,900 boepd

0.7326 x 55 per boe = £40.29

6,900 = £278,000 revenue per day

1,150 condensate ($70/bbl) = $80,500 x 0.76 = £61,200 revenue per day

50% = £170,000 x 365 = £62 revenue million per year

50% share = 4,025 bopd net x £29.57 profit (£10.72 opex) = £120,000 x 365 = £43.5million profit per year

Divided by shares (264,757,820) = £0.16 dividend

X 5 P/E = £0.82

So once Columbus comes online in 2020 (on the back of the Arran field given the go-ahead) this field alone would support the share price of where we are now.

Remeber we're targetting a share price of around £5 just from the BKP deal, so factor in Rhum 3, Columbus and improved production from Erskine and we should see £8 - £10 per share.

Commercial discussions with steel mills ongoing.

Remember we need to finalise EPP costs before agreeing final sale price, which is expected over the next few weeks.

Hold and wait.

Believe we're expecting it to be cleared within 5 days or so.

Standard process and not surprising given the length of shut-in.

Depressurising the line reduces the equilibrium reaction which allows hydrates to crystallise in the first place.

Generally needs managing on an ongoing basis so the methanol should have already been there ready to manage this through production.

Buying opportunity for those in the know as we've now surpassed yesterdays close.