Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
So if UK took all of BPs UK profits for 2021 it would give £61.15p back per household saving 1.1% off the annual energy bill.
Maybe someone needs to go and tell Keir Starmer.
Yep, been wondering when someone will actually look at the numbers, but taking huge numbers without context helps drive public sentiment and further their own agendas.
If you look on the BP site, they publicly state that the north sea accounts for approx. 5% of their production.
Not sure if my calculations are correct but if you take the Q2 profits of $9.3b x 5% = $465m = £400m which is already being taxed at marginal rate of 65%
If UK applied a 100% tax to that £400m (i.e. confiscate all UK profits) and split across approx. 27.8m UK households, it would give an incredible £14.39p off your annual energy bill (estimated to be over £5k if January)
They can also offset their loss for Q1, and technically made a H1 loss of $10bn, so in essence, Looney was right in that at windfall tax on BP wont impact their decision, because they have a massive loss to carry forward.
Also factor in that they were trying to sell Andrew, and that 5% production attributable to UK would be even less.
Big Chinese infrastructure players involved and confirmation that Zanaga is in the process of being integrated into their global plans to dominate natural resources in the region i.e. Bauxite plans using the floating port. This is not just about Iron Ore, it's about a globally interconnected supply chain for natural resources. Closely integrating infrastructure can produce synergies that drastically improve your overall profit margins. All helps with the business case and ultimately financing our project.
Yantai are involved in Simandou, a monster in itself, but nothing compared with Zanaga when you consider grades and scale of the resources.
It's also well known the Chinese want in on this to remove their reliance on Australia and Brazil, but remember that Vale and Rio Tinto have a lot to lose if the Chinese get their hands on this. Don't dismiss "the Others" who are surely looking to maintain their market share and profit margins.
Lots to play for here.
COIDIC will be a key part of providing the debt financing and taking an equity stake in the project (if ZIOC can retain a % free carry), otherwise it will be sold.
£12 based on previous calculations.
£20+ based on Simandou.
I'll bring you a doggy bag once I've finished my feast on ZIOC.
Don't be fooled by those predicting a £2 per share takeover. It will be considerably more.
£12 (one of my old targets) would be considered low ball based on the latest figures for Simandou
Given the much smaller funding requirements here, a $20billion bid for the full Zanaga mine wouldn't be hard to achieve.
That means $10billion to ZIOC holders or £25 per share.
Remember there is over £100 of value in this over the life of the mine with plenty of scope to increase the reserves, meaning significant upside still with the buyers.
Buy and hold.
They could initiate a sealed bid process, but would have to announce the highest bid to market for shareholders to approve. At that point it would open up the potential for counter-offers and a mad scramble to secure the assets.
At $131/ton profit you get a valuation of
770 MT (proven) $100.9 BILLION
2.1 BT (probable) $275.1 BILLION
6.9 BT (resource) $903.9 BILLION
Remember they didn't drill the full depth or extent of the ore body, so $1trillion is likely to be exceeded in the long term.
Placing not needed as either full sale, or free carry.
or simply a nuance of the French language.
The new mineral port was always a key component of the SEZ and was planned to be 8km away from the existing port. The SEZ is then slightly further away which correlates with the 14km stretch of motorway.
If you look at the plans for the new port, it's clearly talking about the same thing.
A multifunctional wharf with different berths i.e. the planned 2x 300,000 ton ore berths, 1x 100,000 ton potash berth, and 2x 50,000 ton multifunctional berths.
here's a handy definition: A wharf, quay (/ki?/, also /ke?, kwe?/[1]), or staith(e) is a structure on the shore of a harbour or on the bank of a river or canal where ships may dock to load and unload cargo or passengers.[2] Such a structure includes one or more berths (mooring locations), and may also include piers, warehouses, or other facilities necessary for handling the ships. Wharfs are often considered to be a series of docks in which boats are stationed.
ZIOC's woes?
The company has been advancing steadily for years. It takes time to prove up the extend and grade of a resource that is considered one of the largest in the world.
It takes time to follow through with relevant planning applications, getting the mine ready for development.
It takes time to sort funding for what will be a large scale mine, requiring an even larger amount of funding for infrastructure/port.
All further complicated by the socio-political environment we have in the Congo.
But all issues are slowly being overcome.
Sit tight and hold, or buy at these low levels. You're unlikely to get a good entry once the big news hits.
If in doubt, remember the above.
Zioc hold 50% of one trillion dollars worth of iron ore. Glencore hold the other half.
Interesting developments with the Pursian gulf and Arabians wanting to diversify away from oil into other resources.
Bidding war with the Chinese seems to be in order here.
As soon as a deal is announced it will be too late to buy.
Zioc aren't here to develop stage 1, they are here to sell it to the highest bidder.
It's getting closer with each new development.
RRE should be trading in the £50-60 range, expect even larger gains over the next few months.
Sorry all, I was reading the wrong cell on my spreadsheet - it's £60m profit I've got down for Arran which will give £4.56 profit per year per share.
Apply a suitable E/P ratio and you can add another £20+ to the share price.
I'd prefer a free carry to maximise full future value as they prove-up more of the resource beyond the 770MT, but as you say most of the possible figures banded about are so high everyone will be set for life anyway.
£1.80 special dividend and 20% free carry maybe?
If it wasn't a full takeover, you'd always struggle to decide when to cash-out, so definitely would make it easier.
When trying to value an asset it's easier to use recent examples of prices achieved.
Simandou was that example and at nearly £12 per share that would value ZIOC at £3.3billion - yes a big amount, but given this is approaching a $1 trillion asset - does it seem like a fair price?
If you reduce that to a super low-ball £3 offer (based on % of proven reserves in the ground) that would value ZIOC at £850million which is peanuts for a project of this size, scale and future profitability.
Somewhere in the middle would be preferred - my own target £8 or £9
Sit back and relax.
Don't forget Arran will bring in another 7kboepd net to RRE which should add an extra £150m per year profit, which equates to over £11 per share profit just from Arran.
While we are currently trading at £19
I'd previously done a calculation based on the Simandou purchase that would value ZIOC at £11.95 per share (excluding capex costs) so should be significantly more.
We've also now got confirmed higher grade ore which sells at a higher premium.
Remember that the interested parties in this have been involved for many years. It just takes time to get a project of this scale and complexity (given the nature of the politics/debt of congo) over the line.