Member Info for Scott22

Another item was that may be good for us but also may have damped share price rise a little is Paul's clear message that no one is talking to him right now about buying the company (he even said there was nothing happening that he was not able to disclose). Even though I strongly prefer TXP to stay independent and let all the possibilities unfold, it might raises a little worry for some investors that if the story is this good, why doesn't BP or Shell want to grab it and take it from here. Maybe some investors bought it looking for that to happen. But personally I'll take a little drop here any day for a longer runway as a stand alone.

On very last call Paul was talking about discussions about collaboration on some projects with some other companies on nearby acres. Here he made it clear that they believe that have the very best spots in terms or the turbidite fairway. Thinner to the north, tails off to nothing to the south. He said outright that he did not think they were going to find any exploration prospects better than the ones they already have.

I am still curious about the land to the east where TXP legacy shallow oil wells are. Is there anything in deeper sands over there. No comments about that but Xavier must have some opinions about that.

I agree - if share price falls I see it as a buying opportunity.

Conference started at 6 pm in London so market was closed in London. We will see where it opens tomorrow.

Too may delays. Everything slipping by months. All is well but timelines keep shifting which no one likes.

OVV has some Montney wells where they are drilling them including long laterals in one day. Fracking them in one day. Hooked to sales the next day. (literally).

Coho timeline has many months for every step. First several months to drill. Then many months to test. More than a year to get it hooked up. And that has not happened. We are hoping for the first 10 mmcf of natural gas into sales by the end of April.

They have to get things moving at a better clip. If Trinidad is really hungry for natural gas feedstock, they are not showing that very well.

I think Touchstone shares might slip down below $2 US until chinook deep zone test and then maybe to $1.50 if chinook tests poorly. Barring any more information in the meantime, I am going to start to add again below $2.00, if we see that.

This is the first Paul Baay at Pro-Active that was not exciting, only because it lacked one new number or one milestone actually completed. But it still looks great going into the 1-2 year time frame and it is still my highest conviction small stock.

Still HUGELY great story.

But slow going on many fronts will slow share price incline. Still maybe some time to take a breath and add more.

The next important piece of the puzzle is the test of Chinook. The test of Casca deep will be good (even great)and the only important new target zone wasn't able to be drilled. But the deepest zone at Chinook is really a new horizon and as I said the next piece of the puzzle. Remmeber that the cascadura deep test was a bit constrained by the amount of volume the testing equipment could handle. Hopefully this new testing set up will be more robust. Disappointing that testing equipment and crew won't be at Chinook until February 1 and that we probably won't have numbers until end of February. Positive in that they plan to flip it back and forth between Chinook and Cascadura deep and maybe move things along a little quicker.

After that it will just be a story of getting things done (connecting pipe to major pipelines and also hook-ups) and getting gas and liquids into sales at Coho but more importantly at Cascadura (and Chinook too).

Obviously Royston next big piece and should be drilled first half of the year and if a discovery should be tested late 2021. Kracken (possible oil pool below Royston will be well into 2022.

There is a lot going on but I think share price may tread water or slide a bit until: 1. Chinook test, 2) Royston Preliminary results, 3. Sales actually happening and the wall of cash actually appears.

I think the December presentation slide deck might be new? They still have first page of October presentation on the home page. December presentation mentions the NGC contract being final. But nothing new about Chinook testing, which as I said is next piece of the puzzle.

There is a December corporate presentation on web site but nothing new. We need a number on the testing of the lowest zone at Chinook, that is next piece of the puzzle. Agree he cannot give us that today unless there is a press release first. He could say that the lower zone tested well and they will release the results of all three zones by end of January - but he probably can't even say that.

You are right

Gas analysis indicated pure, sweet, dry gas with 98.7% methane, no hydrogen sulfide and negligible associated liquids

NGC Tweet

"Unwavering Committment"

I surely like that, even though they only signed the agreement a couple of weeks ago and have yet to hook up anything to production. Coho is to come on production by end of March. There is a gas processing plant already operational very close to Coho so hopefully TXP will be able to get the liquids into sales as soon as gas starts to flow.

License extension is in time, as in additional years. I hope they also retain (or acquire) the right to drill a few deeper wells if there is a consideration that the Herrera turbiditie sands may be charged with gas on that side of the island as well. Why not?

Might as well give us two press releases. They will know from the flow tests if the well (on or more zones) is really good, and then the pressure tests and reserves will just be another boost.

It is very clear in comparing the image on the presentation by the Shell guy that the actual image is of the Cascadura ST site during testing . There is a video of gas flaring at that site on the Touchstone website and it is exactly the same layout.

I had hoped he had gotten an image of testing of Chinook well. But that still does not mean he may have heard something positive about Chinook testing. Though it is more likely he just mixed up Chinook and Cascadura. In any even he showed a Cascadura testing image.

Little touchstone can handle a lot more gas since they do not have to concern themselves with collecting systems, pipelines, gas processing plants. They just hook up at the well head. Sort of like having a great mid-stream partner to take over the capital needs and the technical and permitting requirements of that part of the business.

I guess we will be looking for a flare in the night sky. Or will be waiting for someone to report that to us. Still it is the details of the tests from the three zones that will be most interesting. Especially the results from the lowest zone, which is deeper that anything at Casca ST or Casca deep - and may give a clue to the deepest zone at Casca that we could not get to even in the "deep" well, because of high pressure gas flowing to the surface and making it unsafe to proceed (not to mention the total footage of pay they had already encountered).

They are going to test three zones at Chinook, starting with the lowest and moving uphole. Each zone could take a week. The results of the lowest test would be very material insider information, as a positive test of any zone would move the Chinook well from promising into a proven discovery well with established commercial reserves. Since this is the first test in a prospect that is estimated to be even bigger than the already proven Cascadura discovery, it will be very important.

Maybe that is why the directors sold some of their options shares right away. That was probably their only chance before year end as they likely will not be able to trade TXP shares after the results of the first tested stage of Chinook are available to them.

Cormark would not have made TXP a top pick without some sense that the upcoming Chinook tests have a high probability of being very good. The Chinook testing will have biggest positive impact.

The later Cascadura Deep testing should really be okay and just add some additional quantitative color to the discovery there. Good results in all three sands would be great of course but at least the upper zone seems to be almost a sure thing.

Sorry. Probably overstated - gas price was $3.34 NMX on 10/30/ 2020 but that was after a long climb. Dropped to $2.39 11/08 and today $2.70. It has been rightly pointed out that the world market is much wider than US pricing and that the price at Henry Hub in Texas and the price in western Canada often subject to local forces and trade to their own beat.

Still I am happy to have price locked in at price that assures a very good return.

Timing of finalizing negotiations and signing the deal looks pretty good right now. There is also an inflation rider. There is a chance for company or the NGC to re-open discussions about pricing - but not for 5 years. The agreement is for 25 years. I am happy to have highly profitable price locked in for 5 years.

I think that is part of downward pressure on share price in Canada - maybe soem people don't know that TXP is now immune to changes in Nat Gas price. (either way of course).

I added more today at $1.55 US but my TXP tank is about full. I agree with the comment that TXP is a little addicting with the story and all the upcoming news we are expecting, with the next big one the Chinook test results.

I added a little more today at $1.55 US. I think my TXP tank is about full though I know a lot of posters here have much more.

Cormark Securities analyst Garett Ursu upgraded Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP-T) to “top pick” from “buy” with a $4 target, up from $3.75. The average is $3.31.

Thanks everyone. I understand need for early stage companies to issue low cost equity. And that is done a little differently over there. It does open up possibility to keep most of future reward with company insiders and early investors if the options deals are too egregious.

If anyone here is interested check out the TXP board and do some due diligence. That is a small Canadian company operating in Trinidad, a company that I have owned for years and has had an a remarkable transformation in the last year. There were producing small amounts of oil from mediocre shallow oil pools and were having a hard time growing. But they have held some exploration acres for a few years and have done some pretty intense geological work and have discovered an incredible natural gas system on an island that is starving for natural gas to feed petrochemical industry, electricity generation (100% of electricity on the island comes from natural gas) and also LNG export operation. Anyway they have 4 discovery wells, evidence of huge resource, brand new contract with National Gas Company to buy all the gas at good price (and provide all the infrastructure which relieves capital burden on a tiny company). Anyway maybe you all know about it, but it is my highest conviction buy right now.

Jubilee is my first buy on London Stock exchange. I have been following the TXP board on this site (Canadian company with operations in Trinidad but also trades on London Stock Exchange and has a lot of interest here). I heard about Jubilee through that board and have bought a few shares (10,000) just to follow along and get to know the company and the story better.

Anyway the thing that seems odd to me just comparing with US investing is the sheer number of shares out there. There are 2.1 B with hundreds of millions tied up in options. In US a tiny public company with 2.1 B shares trading for a dime would be delisted and would have astronomically high odds of going BK. Is that just the way things are done on LSE, or is that at all unusual to this company?

For sure