Member Info for Scott22

If that interpretation is correct they can stick a straw in it and prove it. Or at the least a very small well bore.

it does seem like more than a seep

Nitrogen is found in some natural gas deposits, usually at marginal edges of petroleum pools, generated from source rock, somewhat temperature dependent. Nitrogen in these pools often less than 10%. These gas deposits can also have some acid gases like CO2 (carbon dioxide) and HS (hydrogen sulfide) that have to be dealt with, as well as hydrocarbons including methane.

The nitrogen is not a problem. The atmosphere is 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen and traces of other gases of which argon at 0.9% is the largest component. Carbon dioxide (the big problem in terms of climate) is 0.4% and there are trace amounts of helium, neon, and methane (also a global warming problem). Important greenhouse gasses are CO2, methane, and N2O - some others.

Nitrogen dioxide is a by production of combustion and is a pollutant. (think acid rain and respiratory irritant).

N2O is nitrous oxide or dinitrogen oxide or laughing gas is in the atmosphere at about 300 parts per billion. It is the third most important greenhouse gas. There are natural sources mostly from nitrogen cycle of bacteria and fungi in soils and the ocean. There are also human sources from produced N2O that have led to 20% increase in N2O levels since 1750.

The nitrogen in the Holbrook basin is found 2 specific layers of a 28 layer stratigraphic sedimentary system that does have hydrocarbons. (mainly in the Cocino sandstone but also in Fort Apache limestone). It is probably from source rock. There is 4-10% helium and there are up to 4% CO2 and up to 2.5% methane in their well samples. There are good salt seals. Helium was produced from these layers for more than 15 years (in the past, mainly from one small area called the pinto dome) and production is being restarted by Desert Mountain Helium - higher helium price is making production there more economic

There is also nitrogen than can be "exhaled" from volcanoes in absence of sedimentary organic sources. This type of nitrogen could migrate with helium in a system totally independent of hydrocarbons. Maybe that is what is happening at Rukwa with the gas mixture trapped in conventional traps and hopefully sealed. No gas had been tested from a well (maybe soon!). The gas tested from the seeps is mainly nitrogen and helium. There are traces of other gasses.

I might also add it that not only is the geology very different in Tanzania than in Holbrook basin in Arizona - the magnitude of potential helium gas in place is many times higher. However the helium has been proven in Holbrook basin. Proving recoverable commercial reservoirs of Helium in this unique geology in Tanzania is what the excitement is all about. Helium totally independent of any hydrocarbon system migrating from the crust of the earth and being trapped and sealed in conventional reservoirs. With the nitrogen straight from volcanic exhalations? Just getting samples from wells will be amazing and very interesting to the geology scientists at oxford, I am

Highlandmatt: maybe not what?

beckmans: this is not the worst performing stock I have owned in 40 years of investing that includes the October 87 crash, the russian flu, the Y2K meltdown, the dot.com bubble, the 2009 meltdown, or even the March 2020 "hey the pandemic is real" collapse. (parenthetically it seems we may be sailing towards another downdraft market event, but who really knows). You must have led a charmed life on the investment front. Here is one that I held - Wells Fargo - then considered a pretty stable bank (and the pillar of Buffett's holdings then) - $41 in September 2008 to $10 on February 20, 2009 . Looking back further to October 1987 - EVERY stock that I owned then did worse than TXP has done recently. In fact the performance of TXP from inception in 2014 to 2 years ago was a LOT worse than the recent little slide. It dropped by 90% during those long years, from $2.50 when it formed a new company by combining Petrobank's cash with the old Touchstone - all the way down to that 20 cent range. That was a heck of a lot bigger drop than this recent little slide. I got my first TXP shares from my holdings in Petrobank and I did not sell them. ( I did add 10 times more as the story changed with the Ortoire exploration piece and I am nicely profitable after 6 years of being deep in the red on those original shares)

So TXP went up 10 fold , and then pulled back by a third. The stock pulled back, but the story is still intact. TXP is by far my highest conviction stock in the "high risk speculative positions" part of my portfolio.

The extended pressure build up testing at Cascadura Deep will be interesting. It will give them more information about the reservoir and help them peg the right initial production figure when they bring it online into the NGC pipeline spur. It is possible that it might come on higher than the 23 mmcf/day from the 24 hour flow test, again depending on the reservoir characteristics. Paul hinted about that on one of the calls. Would be nice to see that well come on at 30 mmcf/day and that might happen. Not that big a deal since more Cascadura development wells are coming. But any little upside surprises right now are welcome. Regardless what the final number, the production form Casca Deep will much more than current production by TXP. And the production from cascadura1-ST will be more than from Casca deep.

No, I was understanding you clearly and agreeing with you. The reason there was so much pre-work done is because it is a wild and kind of exciting project to go out and drill for helium reservoirs in total absence of a hydrocarbon system. They have had to think hard and carefully about the underlying premise (and do some pre-work for sure) to get it to the point of spending dollars to test it with with the drill bit. I am glad I have a seat to watch it play out. (using some of my dollars I suppose) And it has been fun to learn more about helium and the underlying geological research that has been done and actually is being done as they collect real time data on every well bore as they go.

" I have never had an oil and gas with so much pre-work being carried before. "

Partly because there is no oil and no "natural gas". There has never been a well drilled at a conventional reservoir (with a trap and a seal) looking to exploit migration of helium totally independent of migration of hydrocarbons. These will be the first greenfield pure helium wells ever drilled. Other wells have discovered helium enriched stratigraphic intervals but usually by accident looking for hydrocarbons in an area with known source rock for hydrocarbons.

As mentioned on the Canadian board. Trying to think of what might reverse the brutal down trend.

I actually don't think the story has unravelled as badly as the share price. It is still pretty much intact though Chinook result certainly has derailed the shares for awhile.

There are a lot of potential positives ahead, but at this point to be effective they will likely have to include a new number.

1. Coho on-line at XX mmcf/day.

2. Development well at Coho permitted and then spud (likely would take testing of the result).

3. Pipeline to Cascadura site permitted and construction started. (Likely will take - two cascadura wells on-line at XX mmcf/day.

4. Revenues reflecting those well hook-ups (at least a few quarters away).

5. Permitting of new pad at Cascadura and permitting new development wells there (likely won't move needle much). Will not have results from any new wells there until into 2022.

6. RESULTS AT ROYSTON. Will need more than "feet of pay". Will need 24 hour flow test results. XX mmcf/day and XX BOE/day. This is biggest potential mover of share price in next 3 months.

7. Results of Chinook testing. Probably not much help until they drill and test an updip well and show commercial oil production. That is at least 1-2 years away.

There are others - development drilling in west legacy fields (likely would need to see jump in BOPD in a quarter report to have any impact.) A deep well discovery in west legacy area would be huge but is an absolute wild card right now. Obviously Kracken hit would be monumental but that suspense will build in 2022 and the results from that will be very end of 2022, or into 2023. They also could hit on additional prospects like steelhead and guabine but there won't be anything there for 1-2 years.

I am from the middle of the US (Minnesota) . Over here we talk "oof-da" and "you betcha" and we think anyone with a British accent is very smart and anyone from Oxford must be truly brilliant. So I am putting a lot of stock (literally in this case) in those Oxford geologists who spent years laying the groundwork for this attempt. If they are wrong about the whole thing (having along the way awarded several prestigious PhD’s to graduate students who did some of the leg work), what exactly do they say? What is the Oxford equivalent of “Oops”.

Actually it is very fun to have a seat to watch the next six months play out. Oxford has laid the foundation. The team that has been assembled includes DM with project management and operational experience in Africa and geology training and background, Ian Stalker who has long experience on his side, Lorna who has specific geological expertise in Africa and seismic chops, and Mitchell Drilling. That team has a pretty good chance of cracking the nut, pulling it off and moving from theory toward discovery with path to exploitation. If so that would be brilliant. There must be an oxford term for that - would it be a simple "well done", or maybe "jolly good".

I am from Minnesota and not Yorkshire. Over here we think anyone with a British accent is very smart and anyone from Oxford must be truly brilliant. So I am putting a lot of stock (literally in this case) in those Oxford geologists who spent years laying the groundwork for his attempt. If they are wrong about he whole thing (having along the way awarded several prestigious PhD’s to graduate students who did some of the leg work), what exactly do they say? What is the Oxford equivalent of “Oops”. Actually it is very fun to have a seat to watch the next six months play out.

NGC agreement is for all of fhe natural gas that is discovered on the Ortoire block.

Agreement does not include liquids including oil. Those are sold by company. NGC provides all infrastructure for natural gas right from well head. . TXP has to provide (pay for) own infrastructure for the liquids.

Historically the Krakken it is a gigantic mythological deep sea creature off Norway that gobbles up ships. I am trying to figure out how it got used on the label of Trinidadian rum, with a reasonable rendering of the creature. (usually shown as a giant squid with various configurations of arms (usually two) , tentacles and sometimes a tail).

Helium 1 does not have the money to drill 10 wells let alone 100 or 1000.

I bet the company that drilled the first few north sea wells (or the companies that drilled the first 100) did not do that well.
Still I am betting on a helium discovery in these first 4 wells. Why not? Worth a flier. Story is so interesting that it is worth paying for a seat to watch it all play out during the next 6 months - with more interest because of skin in the game.

It is a multi-decade agreement with NGC. I think Paul said 25 years at one point but the press releases from TXP and from NGC used the term multi-decade. Either side can ask for a pricing review after 5 years.

Now all the need is a pipeline to connect to??

A better use for sure than filling the big orange inflatable Donald Trump.

I am going to put all new investment money in TXP as long as share price stays below $2 US. The downside is protected by the proven discovery at Cascadura that can be easily expoited. The upside with a Royston discovery is substantial. And Krakken is a lottery ticket.

Why not - “Have a krakken weekend”. That is my new phrase after Katie Pilbeam’s “Let’s get krakken” introduction to Paul’s last talk.

Great presentation, and DM did give overview of the compelling story, which we are all getting pretty familiar with.

But there was some new information for sure.

1. Not only did he confirm that seismic program was successfully completed and high quality, and informed a change in the first drill target - he actually showed images of the new seismic, and marked them up to do some illustration and teaching.

2. Very clear explanations of the drilling plan including monitoring the mud in real time (for helium shows) and the adaptation of wire line procedures to be able to document a helium discovery indicating a reservoir - with some details. Also clear description of the sophisticated tools they will have on site. Finally if there is a discovery they will attempt to flow the well to get a gas sample to confirm the helium concentration in the reservoir, rather than from seeps where the helium may be diluted.

3. They are set up to do appraisal right after exploration. That will allow them the kind of quantitative assessment they need to do further planning toward production late 2023.

4. Talked in detail about commercial development the modules that cost 50 million. Money raise likely needed for first one but subsequent ones will be self funding. Much cheaper than natural gas processing plant and commercially available. Payback will be less than 12 months.

5. Talked about scale of project. 50 BCF of helium equivalent to 20 TCF natural gas. They might even have 200 BCF of helium. They have potential to supply 15 percent of world’s helium needs for next 100 years.

Anyway the story is almost to good to be true, but if it plays out as planned in the discovery process (next few months) and that leads to production in 2-3 years, the company will be valuable and contributing to economy of the country.

So we should keep happening for good traps and good seals. This is pretty historic. No one has ever hunted for “conventional” reservoirs of helium that migrated independent of hydrocarbons and have collected in conventional traps with effective seals. I put the quotes around conventional because these would be conventional structures for hydrocarbons and could be drained by a few long lasting vertical wells. But it is hard to call something conventional that has never been discovered before in history.

You are right, Cascadura is worth more than the current market cap.

An addition to your timeline might be that TXP won the bidding concession for the Ortoire block on February 3, 2014. I was a shareholder already back then due to the combination of Petrobank (which I owned) with the precursor old Touchstone (mostly the legacy low production oil wells to the west) which was held by a venture capital group in Toronto and was being run by Paul Baay. By that point Petrobank was only a shell with some cash, having spun off Lightstream Resources and Petrobakken and petrominerales.

Anyway TXP spent about 5 years making the plan for the Ortoire 5 well exploration project that ends with Royston. They got help from Shell in accessing a lot of the data and studied all the old well bores and seismic. Think how far this has come. The probability of getting to this point was a lot less than the probability of development of Coho and especially Cascadura (almost a given) , making something of Chinook, and finding a discovery at Royston. Krakken - I still can't even get my head around what that would mean. Stuff of dreams is right.

Paul has been a steady leader, he is highly skilled. And I love Xavier Moonan. He has had major influence in setting the path weare on. I follow his FB page and his Twitter feed. He has huge enthusiasm, has deep knowledge of Trinidad Geology, is a master teacher. His promotion to leadership position was a really good thing for the company. (I like the other promotions as well). I would like nothing better than for Xavier and Paul and the whole team to pull this off. Even to the point of finding Krakken to be exactly what they think it could be.