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Excellent! Don’t know why it didn’t move the shares. He did talk a lot about all the new construction, most of which is going to start producing soon, in coming months. That spending could make numbers weak this quarter. But I really doubt hat because strong commodity prices plus some modest growth will be bring n a veritable wall of cash.

So Heritage already has some costs for all the on site work at Coho and there will be more for the production facility at Cascadura. They will want some cash coming in too, as soon as possible.

Exit strategies are also tough in small cap binary plays. If they announce a total bust on well one (Tai, the anointed must drill well) then shares will drop instantly. Stop limits will just be by-passed. Who knew what you will get for your shares with a stop loss. Not likely the number you set.

Anyway on a happier note, if they announce a really good result at Tai, you will not be able to buy any shares at the current price.

“I don’t think chat sites can normally influence SP”

Except maybe WallStreetBets?

Thanks. As I now understand it the approval was required from government (oil and gas ministry or something like that) and had nothing to with Heritage. Do you know if Heritage has to pay 20% of all costs after a well is cased? If that is true then they are running up quite a bill all the way back to Coho - and the must also be getting eager to get production and revenues happening.

2 pence is .02 pounds, not .002 pounds. The latter is two tenths of a pence. I think that is right. Though US (and UK too) still a little decimal challenged.

That is good. But I thought the rig was already there. Where did they move it to while waiting to test the Cruse? It wouldn’t have made sense to move it away, and then back again. Who is doing the testing of the Cruse interval. Is it the same group that was working for months to try to understand what went wrong the lower zones and what they actually learned?

The problem with a smallish dividend is the astronomical share count of 2.25 B. I know I am still getting used to AIM (the market cap is what matters, right?) but that share count means there is no small dividend - two pence is 45 million pence a year and 2 pence a quarter is 180 million pounds a year. I think you are off by a decimal point. 5 million pounds would give a dividend of 0.045 pence.

So Heritage had to pay for 20% of the prolonged testing at Chinook
before the well (lower part anyway) was sealed off and abandoned. There was no mention of any approval then. I would bet seriously that did not happen.

Thanks, I actually agree with you and I am continuing to BUY and build my position. I am just trying to understand and explain why the share price is languishing and not flourishing. They have confirmed the geological model, have two discoveries (three wells) all ready to hook up to pipe, have a clear path to 200 mmcf/day with a couple of low risk development wells at Cascadura, have near certainty of being able to self fund development wells at Cascadura and the next exciting phase of exploration. Plus Royston is already funded as the final well of the first exploration phase. The story is just compelling and remains intact. But they do need revenues from sales. That piece is necessary for the story to play out beyond the Royston results. It is hard but if cannot be impossible. The cannot do development drilling at Cascadura or at Royston (if a discovery) without that cash. Many a small company has gone off the rails for inability to execute in timely manner. That is why shares are languishing, in my opinion. The fact that it is somewhat explainable (as you outline) is what keeps the risk to reward ratio favorable (more reward please). In fact the chance of reward is much higher now than when I started building my position by more than 10 times from my initial 2013 holdings from the Petrobank purchase and reorganization.

They are not going to do a flow test. They are going to try to collect a little gas in a bladder they place down hole (sort of like the bladder in a camel back used to carry water while hiking) . Now if the gas does flow naturally to the surface that will be good and they will take a sample. In that case they would likely increase the mud weight to prevent the gas kick so they can continue drilling. That would, needless to say, be very exciting. Think of a gas kick of 10% Helium and 90% nitrogen flowing up from an overpressurized reservoir. Dreams come true.

As I see it the biggest problem is various delays which decrease confidence that company can execute plans. Biggest short term problem is getting production and revenues growing - otherwise company finances will not support development drilling or next phase of exploration. New equity at current share price would be a disaster, as would taking on debt without revenues to service the debt. Not that anyone would give them lab with current revenue stream.
The recent operations update of May 25 had a couple of items that list rate the problem. 1. The service rig is at Chinook. They announced they are going to test the 20 feet of gas in the shallow Cruse. formation, uphold from where the well was plugged. But they say “we will begin as soon as we get approval”. What is that about, how can you drill a well, test it for months, and not have approval to do a simple uphold test? Who will approve it? An agency of the government already has a contract to buy any gas they find. We should have the results already -you can’t make it a big drawn out process (and expensive) to get that piece of information. 2. Delay wasannounced in moving the rig into Royston pad - because of need to add soil stabilizer to the road. I used to make roads. “Soil stabilizer” is a pretty broad term to increase load capability and reduce dust and erosion of “dirt road. The process can use different compounds including more modern polymers, but also oil based or cement based or crushed rocks or mine waste. It usually follows grading and some gravel. It is short of paving the road. Anyway , they have had more than a year to get this access road planned and ready. How can this be a hang-up right now. Makes very little sense.

These kind of items increase expense and detract from confidence. There is total urgency to get cash flowing - absence of cash month after month is annoying, but absence of cash for another year or more actually is a threat to financial ntegeity of the company.

hope not. been there, done that. don’t read this one that way. For one thing cons usually don’t have five years of research by the oxford geology department including a couple of PhD theses.

You are right about many things and I have been reading your posts. But personally (and just my opinion) in this particular case finding a globally importance resource of a high demand gas would be a world event.

In the end TA and FA are not perfect, but (again my opinion) FA is better if you have a very long time frame. In the end if you would tell me the exact price of one stock two months from now - that would be all I would need. I would leverage the heck out of it and cash in. But somehow 80 percent of all options expire worthless (admittedly some are insurance for hedging against losses). You would think the best of TA or of FA might reverse that ratio. Anyway, my best to you and to He1 and especially right now to Tai.

it is a fluff piece and a little over the top. But I like the enthusiasm.
I actually agree with most of it. There is plenty of opportunity ahead right on Ortoire block. I do not agree that they have specific expertise about turbidite sands elsewhere in world to give them global opportunities. Most of the huge conventional hydrocarbon finds worldwide in last 20 years have been turbidite sands, including everything in Gulf of Mexico. But they were not expected on-shore in Trinidad.

no but there will be an instagram photo??

I have been involved in many reversals, Oct 1987, 1998 Russian Flu, Y2k price drop, Great Recession Financial Drop , Covid Collapse.

TA predicted none of them. There are always a few people who look backwards and say they called it (different people for each of the events using different tools) but the vast majority of TA trend predictors missed all of these. And as you know we are going to have a reset sometime in near to middle timeframe. Has to happen. But I don’t know when it will happen. Timing it is very difficult. Sentiment at each of those downturns made it feel like one should sell all - very bad idea. Most of the money I have made in my entire investing career has been from decisions to buy (and what to buy) at those time points.

With individual companies it is even harder, and the smaller the company the harder yet. I won’t go on but I could give lots of specific examples. TA in He1 is not going to define whether they identify a globally important helium resource and are able to successfully exploit it. If they do, the shares will not reverse and tumble downwards.

TA is powerful tool in confirming trends and strengths of trends. If stock is in uptrend - like He1 - it can help with assessing how strong the trend is and confirming that some temporary pull backs are just expected components of intact trend.

Trouble is that TA is not very good (in fact never proven of value) in predicting reversal of a trend. That is especially important in small companies since many reversals in these small companies are not due to external factors but are due to company specific events (like no helium at TAI as hideous example). If such a thing should happen then TA would quickly validate a strong down trend. It is just NOT going to be able to predict that (hopefully imagined) reversal from the current uptrend.

Xavier even joked about that (“graveyard of geologists”) at the first academic presentation that I heard him do. It was an invited talk about the turbidite sands deposition model. In Houston. About 10 years before Coho and especially Cascadura. If Royston is a one TCF discovery it will not be the graveyard of anyone. If Kraken is a big oil pool similar to Exxon finds off surinam (admittedly a long shot), then Trinidad may be the ticket to valhalla for this geologist, where he earns lasting fame.

he has been working....