Member Info for Scott22

And he is not connected with company. Not being from England I love interviews by guys named Alastair. Almost as much as I like that the underlying fundamental research was done by Oxford University Geology Department Noble Gasses group.

https://youtu.be/cvWPunRyyhI

seismic can never confirm trap and seal or whether the suspected reservoir is full or not. That requires drilling. And after 5 years He 1 is drilling. The helium in mud is super and markedly increases confidence. The wireline data can confirm a reservoir. A sample can give helium concentration in the reservoir. An appraisal well will be needed to calculate reserves and figure out the production rates expected from one or more reservoirs. They are planning to do the appraisal well (or wells) with the same rig and the same Mitchell drilling crew. That was the beauty of the last capital raise -brilliantly timed.

what you missed was DM clear description (several times) of the steps required for reporting a “show” and a “discovery”. Reporting discovery requires wireline data. They have not acquired wire line data yet. . Therefore you cannot have an RNS about a discovery -YET. Soon, but not yet. Maybe only days.

It is actually not that unusual to have a 50% retracement after a major upward move. Trouble with this one is that the pullback has been so slow and so painfully brutal, lasting already almost 6 months with no relief along the way. But the exhilarating upward surge was more than 12 months long, with no suffering along the way.

Perfect Prae. That trip has exciting connotations as you say.

But we have already had a gas show. He is going there to announce a gas DISCOVERY!

And that is why I have been buying all the way down. My last buy was yesterday at $1.09. I have a limit order in at $1.05. I am going to keep buying unless the story changes for the worse, and frankly if that happens there may not be much chance to salvage much at all. Some days I feel like I am the only one propping up the share price by always having a limit order below current price. (although of course that is not the case, my buys are small). But there are more chapters to be written. I wish I could predict the share price year end 2021, 2022, and 2023. If I could publish those numbers I think a lot of people would be buying hand over fist right now. Or not. That is the way the future works.

At that point (early 2021) the wheels came off for a number of reasons. Chinook well was touted as world class and full of natural gas, but turned out it was full of water and a trace of oil and was injured to boot. Cascadura Deep was touted as best of all (and probably is in terms of pay) but was also injured and was completed with just a fraction of pay and will produce about 20 mmcf/day, below either tested zone at Casca 1ST. (only one of which can be produced).

And then the problems Coho well into production stretched out over more than a year and is still not accomplished. Cascadura production was to occur in second half of 2012 and they will not even have a development plan until September or October and production will slip well into 2022. Royston spud getting later and later and missed all timelines.

Then there is new rig from Canada coming (delayed many months) which will be associated with costs for 120 drilling days a year. The money they have is being spent and the wall of cash that was supposed to be the funding source is no where is sight. Plus there are those who benefit from pushing the shares down.

So that is where we are. There is a lot positive. 3 of first 4 exploratory wells will produce and the turbidite sand model for Ortoire block is prove. Royston is biggest and best prospect and is about to spud. Having one failed (of 5) exploratory well (at Chinook) is to to be expected and even there they are testing for first time a shallow Cruse sand that is found across the Ortoire block - and they may have potential oil up dip from the first Chinook attempt. Not all bad even there. Plus they have no debt - I cannot say how important that is. Plus they have laid out a second phase of exploration that includes steelhead, Kraken (a deep Cretaceous oil prospect that is almost a lottery tick if it hits) and Guabine. Plus oil is at $70 and they are going to get more from the legacy blocks. Plus they are going to test the deep sands under the legacy blocks. Plus they have a great contract with NGC to lay pipe to the drilling pads and buy all natural gas at a fixed price. There is more ahead than behind. The share price has been crushed, but nothing crushing has happened to the company or its future prospects.

The first day the Petrobank shares appeared in my account as Touchstone Exploration (after the acquisition of predecessor company and renaming the shell, which by that time had only some cash) was 1/11/2013 at $2.06. That doesn't seem quite right but that is what my account history shows. The share price quickly dropped in by 2/3 and I added more shares at 65 cente on 11/11/2013 and at 72 cents on 4/09/2014.

The company had the low volume shallow wells on the legacy blocks and a plan to grow production by infill drilling and reworking old wells. They made a little progress off and on but it did not work that well and the shares eventually lost more 90% of their original value. I did not sell any and for that reason continued to follow the company a little bit.

In 2014 they bid (and won ) the concession on the Ortoire block, where exploration had largely failed. They hoped to drill more shallow low volume oil wells. But they spent 5 years studying all the old seismic and old well bore data (Shell was quite accommodating) and they got Xavier Moonan on board, at first as a consultant. He had been studying the geology of Trinidad and was convinced that there was hydrocarbon deposition in turbidite sands on-shore, similar to major off shore discoveries but cheaper to exploit. The Ortoire block seemed the best place to test this hypothesis. Some of his early presentations about turbiditie sands at geology meetings (including one in Houstoon that is still available on You-Tube, were extremely interesting. TXP laid out a five well exploration program to test these sands, largely by twinning well bores that had promising data in support of the hypothesis, though were never fully tested for many reasons, some only because reservoirs of natural gas were not a target in the 50's and 60's.

The early part of the exploration program was pretty spectacular, Coho had overpressurized gas in the Hererra sands and tested out at 10 mmcf/day with proven reserves. Cascadura -1ST was much bigger and better and two zones each tested at more than 20 mmcf/day with larger proven reserves.

Share price marched up to a dollar and I started buying again at $1.04 after a 6 plus year gap. I bought more in 90 cent range including a buy at 94 cents on September 29, 2020.

The higher price allowed some equity sale and the company was fully funded for the plan of work to complete exploration program and do seismic over by Royston, the biggest and most exciting prospect of the initial exploration program. The shares continued to ramo and I continued to buy including some shares at $2.25 on January 21, 2021. By that time I was up 100% on overall position (because of volume buys under $1.00 in 2014 and in Septemberof 2020. Many who had bought shares during the long interval when they were going for 10 to 20 cents had more than a ten bagger in January of 2021.

It is becoming insane.

Maybe we need a little Rudyard Kipling since this is a London Board.

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs,

If you can trust yourself (and Paul and Xavier Moonan too) when men are doubting all of you,

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, ,

Then maybe you can buy this grinding collapse, rather than selling all in panic.

Of course if the story is unraveling as badly as the share price, then that may not be the wisest move. But so far I do not see a fundamental change in the story. They still have gas in the ground at Coho and especially Cascadura, they still have the NGC contract, they still have development wells that will quickly boost production and ramp cash flow, there is some exciting exploration ahead starting with Royston, they still have the canadian rig coming to Trinidad. They have higher oil prices and a new 10 year lease on the legacy lands that will make some drilling there have high return. And they have no debt and money to complete current plans for rest of year. Let's just get it going and see what happens.

They have proven the concept of turbidite sands on land in trinidad with over pressurized gas in multiple sand sheets that can be exploited much cheaper than deep water deposits.

It remains very brutal out there. Just bought shares in US under US $1.10. It is totally understanding to have an impatient tone, or a worse tone for that matter. But the story still seems to be intact. And Xavier Moonan is still working to help make it all happen.

I can only speak for Schwab. Initially I had to go through International desk and trade on AIM with $100 charge. Could only be done with a call, like in the old days. I bought in 10k lots which reduced commission to 1 cent per share. More recently Schwab will also place trade OTC for $50. Again that has to be done in direct call and the charge is $50. They have told me they may allow on-line trading soon as the volume is increasing and there is usually a bid and an ask.

However would use limit orders, especially on OTC. My last trade (also 10k shares) I was able to buy cheaper on AIM with $100 commission than on OTC with $50 commission. It was pretty close however but I did buy them on AIM.

Currently I have 50,000 shares from 5 buys and I am happy to have a seat at the table as we follow this exciting story and watch these first wells (5 years in planning) get drilled.

Update from Paul would not be helpful unless there is actual progress on some item. It might even to counterproductive if it simply indicates that more patience is needed. We need items like:

1. Coho is hooked up to production at 12 mmcf/day and will net $600k per month.
2. Royston drilling is complete and wireline logs indicate 700 feet of natural gas pay with testing to begin immediately.
3. EIA statement has been submitted and accepted for the entire Cascadura project plan. Work is beginning on the second well pad. Meanwhile NGC will connect to the first well pad (where the Casca1ST and Casca deep wells are waiting). Pipeline construction and construction of surface facilities are starting simultaneously with expectation of sales within 60 days.
4. Canadian rig has arrived in Trinidad and has been mobilized to one of the legacy blocks where drilling (of first of four wells) will begin this week.

If Paul has nothing to say in this vein, he should just wait, because we already know that we are waiting. We already know that he is very good at presentations and updates, when he has something to present and update.

I can see getting killed by needing a 250 mile pipeline. But the Coho site was chosen for the first exploratory drill because it is 1.3 km from a major pipeline. And it is over a year now and it is not hooked up.

From May 25 RNS

Requested to complete an Environmental Impact Assessment ("EIA") on the Cascadura development project that will enable us to undertake a pre-approved multi-year program including drilling, completions, facilities, gathering lines and the main sales infrastructure without the time intensive application process that would have previously accompanied each individual workstream.

That is simply wrong. The environmental impact assessment is for the Cascadura project, and not the whole Ortoire block. That was clearly stated in the May 25th RNS and was also mentioned by Paul in two different presenttaions. Paul said that anticipate it will be ready in September time frame and then they will move ahead. Once they have the development plan in place for the Cascadura project, the NGC should run the pipeline extension to the current Cascadura drill pad fairly quickly. Paul said that pipeline construction would not be the factor slowing down production and sales, but it sure has been a negative factor at Coho since all the wellhead facilities there are completed and the pipe is stacked on the ground.

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I like that image. As I said I bought more yesterday, so I am on board.

Agree that actual production from Coho might give a little boost. But that is a few months off. What I said was that the simple announcement of the final plan and the start of pipeline construction might not make a difference.

The RNS about the legacy blocks had lots of info and got us a penny gain. But mopre importantly we did not go down. You all know I think we are oversold and am looking for a reversal and a new uptrend. Nothing imperssive today but maybe we can stop the bleeding and stutter here at around this price and then start to move up with the next little positive piece of news.

I do not think that concrete Coho hook-up plan or Royston Spud announcement will be enough. I think we will need a Royston discovery at this point. The downturn has been long and relatively brutal.

Sorry, should have been clear. TXP has NO money to buy any assets from Shell or anyone else.

TXP has enough money to drill Royston and to drill the 4 wells on the legacy blocks with the new Canadian rig. And to pay for the seismic that is just being completed, and for some limited surface facilities at Cascadura drill pad. (will have to have tanks and truck the liquids). And hopefully for ongoing expenses through year end. (which includes a million for moving Canadian rig from Houston to Trinidad).

A line of credit is not cash, it is an opportunity to go into debt.

Not easy to buy with the share price slowly slip sliding away. The shares and the story just can't seem to generate any momentum or even positive energy, at least for the moment . But there will be numbers and an operational update about July 10 to July 15.

I still wish they would do regular quarter reports that are audited and in same format quarter after quarter, with a format that feels a little more familiar. But it is hard to argue that revenues and earnings are not going sequentially up. Hoping for a huge bump in both those numbers that will bring a little puff of wind to the sails and get JLP moving out of the doldrums.