Member Info for Scott22

Another complementary idea (in addition to DME which I own). Royal Helium trades on venture part of Vancouver stock exchange and is difficult to buy in US through usual channels. They have a very interesting Helium/Nitrogen zone that appears to have a good seal and they will try to do what helium 1 is planning - build their own modular processing plant which will be easier because the nitrogen can be vented, like He1 will do, unlike the complex processing required to separate very small amounts of helium from natural gas like in QATAR. I think they are closer to proving a commercial reservoir of helium though hopefully Helium1 is not far behind. And maybe even this month.

Helium 1 is my best idea by a mile, DME is interesting and I have profits there on small position, and RHC.TSXV is interesting. Does anyone own RHC based on their helium research.

I am finding it more interesting. It is a one trick pony with a CEO and a couple of non-executive board members. At first blush it seems to be designed to enrich a few. But they do have a very good idea and have done quite fantastic work on accumulating a big potential source of minerals especially tailings. The deal with JLP would provide cash faster than other avenues though still a year or two away. The other beauty of it is that JLP with provide all the capital investment for the project. So far I cannot buy it in US, though I haven't talked to SCH international desk yet. I am thinking I could probably buy it for a $100 commission plus some charges over there. Does anyone own it. I have learned that Caerus was the god of opportunity, luck, and favorable moments. I have also learned that the word copper is derived from aes cyprium ( metal of cyprus) and that eventually was simplified to cuprum and that morphed into the word copper in English.

You are right. They will not set casing until they have drilled to 400 meters and done wireline (but not DST) on the upper 400 feet of the well bore including the first potential reservoir (the shallowest). I am going to revise my post to make it more accurate.

Why would anyone bail out now when all we know is the results of the first 70 meters (of planned 1200 meters) through the first of 3 possible traps. And what we know about the shallowest potential trap is that there is an effective seal of shale with shows of 2% helium from mud below that.

Next we will learn the wireline results from the first 400 meters before that upper 400 meters is cased and cemented. That will give more information about the shallowest of the three potential traps. They will not do DST on that part of the well. Next they will drill to 1200 meters and do wireline of that segment from 400 to 1200 meters, which includes 2 deeper potential reservoirs. After the wireline of the lower segment they will do DST if any helium pay zones are defined and will attempt to collect gas samples to give more accurate measurement of helium in those two deeper reservoirs (if identified and confirmed as traps with seals). And all that is going to happen in next 2-3 weeks. (not years).

Don't let the collywobbles get to you.

In January at my grandson's college some of the students were putting their loan grants into Bitcoin at $50,000 and others were buying it on credit cards. I guess the smart ones were buying GME before rocket day and the really dumb ones were buying GME over $500 when the prediction was a run to $1000.

I think holding He1 at this price is totally fine because it is backed by a real potential resource and that potential is supported by real science (Oxford Geology Department no less) and 5 years of preparatory work to get to the point of drilling this first well.

Why would anyone bail out now when all we know is the results of the first 70 meters (of planned 1200 meters) through the first of 3 possible traps. And what we know about the shallowest potential trap is that there is an effective seal of shale with shows of 2% helium from mud below that.

Next we will learn the wireline results from the first 70 meters before that is cased and cemented, then a little more about the first 400 meters (where the second potential trap is located) and finally we will learn about the third potential trap above 1200 meters, plus get the wireline results from the rest of the well, and maybe one or more helium samples. And all that is going to happen in next 2-3 weeks. (not years).

It is like getting tickets to Hamilton, waiting a year, and then selling them to someone in line for half price because you might be disappointed. I am going to keep my seat for the next three weeks. And actually I am going to keep my seat for the next 4 months , no matter how this first well plays out.

They didn’t know that the Coho gas was totally dry (unlike Cascadura gas that has liquids) and the initial plan was to run it through the Shell Processing plant. Wonder if the fact that the Coho gas has no liquids and can go straight into main gas pipeline somehow changed the equation.

good points. the billion plus share count does weight Jubilee down a bit and make it a little harder to climb. and Caerus was starting at a tiny market cap (kind of appropriate for two full time employees and no revenues in sight and no money to mine anything. For JBL, it is just an interesting opportunity. and it will take some upfront investment capital and a lag to first production of a year or more. But they be nice thing is that they can fund it (once a “go” decision is made) from cash flow.

Shell being a big barrier doesn’t make a lot of sense. Not disputing it. But they have a lot of excess capacity, they had discussed it before drilling, and we are talking about 10 mmcf/day of gas. What would they accomplish by playing hardball on that small amount. Surely they have no ability to block production at Cascadura (potentially 20 times greater), at Royston (more than that) or at any other Ortoire site.

I read too quickly and missed that the Oil Mininster actually said Cascadura AND CHINOOK for Q4, 2021. At first I thought he meant the two Cascadura wells already completed and tested.

"Touchstone’s Cascadura and Chinook field are expected to come on line in the
fourth quarter 2021."

Yeah I missed that - Maybe Cruse at Chinook has had a good test and can add somewhere near 10 mmcf/day . Because Q4 2021 is way too quick to drill up dip wells at Chinook and complete them - and those up dip Chinook wells are supposed to produce oil and not gas (god willing). Two reasons why Cruse might have an undisclosed natural gas discovery.

But probably a reach. Maybe the oil minister just misspoke and was talking about the two cascadura wells and not the two different fields.

Still seems odd that Caerus shares have been a rocket since they announced that they exploring partnership with Jubilee. Just the mention of Jubilee has moved their shares north. But not ours.

Also, shares up just (a little, but up) in Canada and US today

Some comments today by the energy minister at a conference. Posted on the Canada Stockhouse board. I love this, it fits with increased sense of urgency. Maybe this will help the trend shift.

Comments from Trinidad's Energy Minister today

Opening address by Energy Minister Stuart Young at the (SPETT) International Energy Resources Conference and Exhibition 28th June 2021

https://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Ministers-Speech-SPETT-Keynote-Address.pdf

Extracts below:

"The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on both oil and gas production.
Whereas oil production has rebounded to the 2019 level, gas production is taking a
little longer to regain the momentum that was dampened by plant turnarounds,
reduced demand due to low petrochemical prices and operational issues including
infrastructure work to bring on new production. The issues that impacted on gas
production in 2020 and so far in 2021 have been largely addressed or mitigated."

"Over the next 18 months, new gas production is projected to come onstream from
all of the upstream operators. BHP’s Ruby project is already on stream and
Touchstone’s Coho field is due to come onstream in the third quarter 2021.
Touchstone’s Cascadura and Chinook field are expected to come on line in the
fourth quarter 2021."

And this one:-
"An Onshore Competitive Bid Round will follow the Deep Water Competitive Bid
round. The recent successes onshore by Touchstone and Challenger Energy Group
have served to confirm that great potential still exists onshore. There has been
significant interest in onshore acreage by both potential investors as well as current
Operators. In July 2020, Heritage issued an EOI to global and local energy
companies to express their interest in a joint venture to explore the deeper
perspectivity of its North West District. Three IOCs were shortlisted and a
preferred partner will be selected by the end of 2021. The Ministry intends to build
on such interest and will be offering several blocks in the onshore bid-round.
Extensive 2D and 3D datasets and well data are available to enable the evaluation
of the blocks."

I like your optimism and the path ahead seems pretty clear. Just the time to get there may be a little longer. The chance of Casca 1ST and Casca Deep coming on line by December 2021 seems pretty low. I am hoping for mid 2022. But I am also hoping that by mid 2022 they will be all prepared to drill series of Cascadura project development wells and will be all prepared to hook each new well up as soon as it is completed.

you are mostly right . They will do wireline on this first interval and then case it. They will not do DST testing on this shallowest zone because of instability of well bore. Then they will drill to bottom, do wireline on entire depth and DST testing on one or more deeper pay zones, if identified. They have communicated this plan clearly. The only thing new that we should have this week is wireline results on top zone. They probably won’t have a sample to measure Helium concentration more directly right now. They will be monitoring Helium concentrations continuously in the mud as they drill to total depth (that is what provided the show that was reported last week). So they may be able to report additional shows as they drill ahead.

yeah but maybe it will matter to NGC, may increase their urgency to get our products into their pipelines

That seems very low compared to potential resource and potential future revenues and profits.

Just looking at GameStock numbers. Market Cap 15 billion. Forward PE is 551. Of course they do have revenues now (5 billion last year) but price per sales is greater than 3 and those sales are losing money with operating margin of negative 3.5 % and EBITDA of minus 110 million last year.

The interesting thing is that they are raising equity at these high share prices to help transition company to a different business model.

Similarly a price spike would really help He1 since they could do a relatively small equity raise to fund the first modular helium plant, and then fund more units from ongoing profits. I know I am getting ahead of myself, but it could unfold that way. Selling 10 million new shares at 5 pounds would totally solidify the finances for the next stage.

Hooking up the completed Coho and Casca (2) wells will boost cash flow faster than anything. The investment has already already been made. Just turn the spigot. Unfortunately no hose for the gas to pour into.

Love Xavier Moonan - I follow his Twitter feed and his FB page. These recent tweets are great. He is thinking about geology and especially the opportunities for TXP on the Ortoire block and also on the legacy blocks. I am sure he is also evaluating land that might be come available for leases in future bidding rounds on adjacent land. (Though Paul thinks we have the most prospective fairway on the Ortoire block as compared to land to north and south).

Comparing the Q1 2021 financials to the Q4 2020 numbers:

1. They do have term loan of 7.2 million.

2. Receivables are about 6 million end of Q1, up from 4 million Accounts payable AND accrued liabilities were steady at 11.9 million. Some of the accrued liabilities may not have call on cash in near future, but it that does includes rig mobilization from Canada and also some drilling obligations for new rig (120 days a year , an obligation that begins when rig arrives. They also have to pay to demobilize the rig in three years unless the contract is renewed. I am hoping they can keep it busy for 10 years.

3. Cash dropped from 24.2 to 15.4 million. That is a draw down of almost 9 million in one quarter. (Might add that if Coho had gone on line in June 2020 that cash would be 6 million higher).

They have current exploration spending of at least 3 million a quarter and that will increase somewhat. They have exploration commitments in 2021 that total about 9 million. They likely will add development drilling but not likely I think until 2022 since they are not even submitting the Cascadura project plan until September or October.

The 15 million in cash is going to be much lower by end of 2021. It will not be good if the two Cascadura wells do not get hooked up into sales until well into 2022. That is part of our current problem, at the least it is worrying and puts a damper on share price.

Everything is taking a long time. And I am not blaming TXP for rain related issues on the Chinook road. I am not even blaming them for EVERYTHING going so slow. But the shares had been on a 12 month rocket ride because they were executing and having good results on a series of wells and proving the turbidite sands model. You can't expect the rocket ride to continue unless they continue to make progress. They have just stalled out for awhile and that has been reflected in the share price.

For just one example this was press release from December 19, 2019 all in italics for emphasis. It has not been raining all the time since December 2019.

"Final testing of the Coho-1 exploration well displayed natural gas rates that greatly exceeded the Company’s expectations and is expected to materially contribute to our near-term growth. With production testing and analysis completed and verified independently, the Company has a clear indication of the potential of Coho-1 and is moving forward to bring the well on stream in the first half of 2020."

The story has not changed. More good things are ahead. I believe in Xavier Moonan. And Paul Baay. I am still buying. But they have contributed to the pullback. Maybe it was just releasing this paragraph in all italics for special emphasis.