Member Info for Scott22

DM has explained that their isn't a fixed market price for helium. A lot of end users make their own deals and the prices they pay are not public information. But China uses a lot of helium and they import it all. Apparently you (at least someone) can aggregate all the import data that gives prices and duty paid etc. Best estimate from that is a $350-375 per MCF price, about 100 times natural gas. Price of helium also depends om hop pure it is which is related to the processing.

Those are nice videos - the hippos in the Rukwa video are amazing. And the waterfall and the lake. Beautiful and truly remote part of the world. Thanks for posting the links. I can see why DM is determined to work with the local people and minimize disruption.

The rain in Tanzain....
Falls mainly on the plain

Drill baby drill! This is fun. I am willing to lose my investment here if we (including DM and Lorne and the Oxford Universary Geology professors) are all wrong. I have 2 year target of US $3-5 and 5 year target of US $5-10. I also have a rigorous practice of reviewing my holdings periodically to make sure the story is still intact and the valuation makes sense. But I have no plans to sell unless I am convinced the shares have become very overvalued relative to other opportunities.

I only wish we were holding three Aces. I see it more like we are holding two aces and are about to get the flop. If we get an ace on the flop, then we are in good shape and still have two more cards as things proceed to boost us even further.

But the bettors on a negative outcome have a couple of knaves. If they get another jack on the flop then we will fall behind and have to regroup and hope for an Ace on the turn or on the river.

After my last post I decided to write e-mail to IR at Touchstone. Sometimes they do respond. I'll let you know. Also if you listen to Paul's next presentation on May 25, see if he addresses any of this.

Hi,

I don't like to complain and I am actually a huge supporter of TXP. I love the geology and Xavier Moonan is a rock star. Paul is doing a great job. The new additions to leadership positions are awesome. There are a lot of good things ahead.

But it has been getting a little frustrating.

The authorities in Trinidad keep crying that they are short of natural gas. I am getting a clue as to why that is the case.

The biggest thing lacking is urgency - not so much from TXP but from the NGC and the government. Then we need execution - from TXP and NGC.

The Coho well has been ready to deliver gas for over a year. All the infrastructure is complete at the well head and ready to go. You literally have to turn a valve. But the pipe is sitting there and not in the ground. It is a pipeline to nowhere so to speak. And the location of Coho was the reason you drilled it first - it is three km from an operational pipeline. The pipeline to nowhere has also been approved and permitted (a long arduous process). I keep thinking, what exactly is going to make this easier or even possible next month or the one after or the one after.

Paul is talking again in London on May 25. It is nice to have these updates and pep talks. I have listened to every one (in real time) for years. But a month has gone by. It will not be well received if there is nothing new.

I have a series of questions for him to consider:

Have the plans for Coho come together? If not why not? Are you going to drill a second well at Coho to get a little more production there?

Has NGC has started construction on spur to Cascadura. If not why not?

Are development wells at Cascadura permitted. If so how many? If not why not?

Is there a more solid timeline on arrival of the Canadian rig . If not why not?

Have you have learned something at Chinook? If not why not?

Do you have a spud date for Royston? That is exciting in itself.

Thanks so much. Keep working. Increase the sense of urgency. Pressure NGC to do the same. I did read about the recent talks with NGC with plans for follow-up talks. Convert that talk into action.

Now it let me copy it - sorry I messed that up.

Also, Helium One Global Ltd HLOGF is listed on the us otc. Its a young london company, so can be bought on their exchange as well. Take a look. Its ground floor now, and first drills in the ground in a couple weeks. Could be the best deposit in the world (estimating 200 billion us dollars worth). Its chart may soon look like DME's.

I guess I cannot copy it. I will paraphrase. maybe we will get more buying in US OTC.

Helium 1 listed on US OTC. It is a young london company, can be bought on lse as well. Take a look. Ground floor now. First drills in a few weeks. Could be best deposit in world - estimate of US$200 B worth. Chart may soon look like DME chart.

They consider us ground floor. They also recognize that the size of our potential resource is many times what they have.

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They (the authorities in Trinidad) keep crying that they are short of natural gas. I am getting a clue as to why that is the case.

The biggest thing we are lacking is urgency (not so much from TXP but from the NGC and the government. Then we need execution - from TXP and NGC.

The Coho well has been ready to deliver gas for over a year. All the infrastructure is complete at the well head and ready to go. They literally have to turn a valve. But the pipe is sitting there and not in the ground. It is a pipeline to nowhere so to speak. And the location of Coho was the reason they drilled it first - it is three km from an operational pipeline. The pipeline to nowhere has also been approved and permitted (a long arduous process). I keep thinking, what exactly is going to make this easier or even possible next month or the one after or the one after.

https://newsday.co.tt/2021/05/20/touchstone-exploration-an-onshore-success-story/

Now let’s hope we can gut some momentum going and keep adding discoveries and start converting those discoveries into production.

It is all good. I do like investing and I have done well with it over the years. I do have basically good health. I am mostly just kidding to my son but there is some truth in it when you hit mid 70's. I do think it is good to have some input and honest feedback. And it is good to articulate your decisions out loud to someone, to have it on the record, and to be accountable for good and bad decisions. In fact that is what is most useful about a good message board. There you can find broad content knowledge, more focused knowledge of the company, a range of analytic skills, feedback, alternate ideas, and a place to be record for your own assessments. Even some entertainment. When a board turns south however it is best to exit.

Of course many people leave the whole thing to their money manager, but I have always felt my finances are more important to me than to them. And early on I didn't have enough invested that they had any interest.

Over the last couple of years I have become increasingly convinced that the transition away from hydrocarbons toward clean energy is going to require growth in certain other natural resources especially lithium, nickel, PMG metals, and copper. I found helium as another resource that will be increasingly important as technology advances. I want to have some investments in this space, mainly in the special situations/turnarounds part of my portfolio (anyone old enough to have been influenced by Peter Lynch will know what I mean). That is only 5-10%. Overall I have a very diversified and balanced portfolio and not a basket of risky AIM companies. Not that there is anything wrong with that at the right age and with some deep content knowledge and some analytic bent and a little luck thrown in.

With full apologies to inthevoid, I also find that I do not read as accurately as I age, in addition to not spelling as accurately.

When I read his last post I initially though he was saying “my inmate lack of social interaction skills”. But it was “my innate lack” of same.

I do have my son follow my investment trades. I have told him to monitor me in case I start doing off the wall absurd things in my account. So he can take away my car keys at the appropriate time. I am hoping that investing in He1 at my age is not such an indicator . Some of my friends might think that. But so far I have been able to convince him that the story is interesting and worthy of an appropriately sized speculative investment. But he has also not found it compelling enough to buy any shares himself.

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God willing and traps full and seals holding

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I have no problem with that. But right now everything is waiting. No hookup is in sight for Coho. No development well is planned at Coho. The timing of the NGC spur to Cascadura is totally unknown. There are no development wells planned at Cascadura. The best we can hope for from Chinook is pretty good evidence that up dip wells might be productive. But those Chinook up dip wells (if indicated) are a couple of years away.

Royston is moving ahead. That is very good. But it would also be good to balance activities that will bring in cash with the activities that are expending cash. I just would like to see a little more sense of urgency from TXP but also from NGC. They have to get these two discoveries (Coho and Cascadura) into production.

I think that is due to the announcement that DME has started to drill the fourth well, and that the expected timeline for results is 10 days. Pretty impressive if they do that. No one has any patience these days. That's why we had people in US putting stimulus checks (and students in US putting student loan checks) - right into bitcoin. So they could double their money in a few weeks.

I added some more shares He1 shares today. I got a cheaper price (a couple of pennies) on AIM than on US OTC. I thought I had the full position that I wanted - but I decided to beef it up as the story is really going to start to play out quickly (one way or the other) with the drilling of the Tai structure. When I started buying He1 it really was not trading in US but now daily volumes are pretty solid, about 150k shares per day as HLOGF as compared to 15 million on AIM.
I guess technically it is really not arbitrage unless you buy on one market and sell on the other simultaneously - and pocket the spread.

I liked the word "pinched". That was not a word we used when we were grabbing sweet corn off the back of the canning company trucks when they stopped, looked, and listened at the railroad tracks running through our little town. We would steal some from the fields too. No maize though.

Although now I think about it, the post may have some relevance to TXP. DME is drilling three development wells in 10 days each. TXP needs one more well at Coho to boost production from that discovery. Probably won't be this year. It would also really help to have three more development wells at Cascadura ready to go by the time NGC gets that 200 mmcf/day spur to the site up and running . Probably won't be this year. Somehow they have to be able to put pedal to metal and makes things happen just a little faster. To do that they need help from NGC - not just meetings but action.

Good interview but not brand new. That was done before the new 2D seismic had been completed and before the latest round of equity raise that funds He1 through the appraisal wells.

However it is fun to listen to, even if not up to date. After DM explains the globally important resource part and the 1 BCF for 100 years part and the ability to influence the market because the economics are pure helium economics and not related to hydrocarbon economics - at that point the interviewer jumps in with this question, without a bit of irony: "So you are effectively the Saudi Arabia of Helium?" More impressively DM answers instantly and authoritatively - "ABSOLUTELY".

Let's hope so. That little exchange is the stuff of dreams.

So sorry - I am losing it. That post was for the Helium One board - but I had just checked this one and put it here by mistake. Helium 1 is one of my three AIM stocks, I like it but I like TXP better. (my 3rd is JLP, kind of a motley collection but all with promise in different ways)