Member Info for Scott22

I thought of that after I posted. Likely they can’t say they will hook it up until it is a proven discovery with estimated flow rates. I sure can’t see why they wouldn’t hook it up since it was drilled on the same pad as Cascadura1-ST. And that pad is the terminus of the new pipeline NGC is building that by report has a 250 MMCF/day capacity.

2021 work plan includes bringing Coho and Cascadura1-ST into production. No mention of Chinook. And no mention of Cascadura Deep their best well by far.

Since they are only producing the upper zone at Cascadura1-ST (half of the discovery), that will slow somewhat the ramp of production we were expecting by end of year - to 50 MMCF/day as compared to the 100 MMCF/day I was expecting. Hopefully cascadura will be producing a lot more than the upper zone of Cascadura1-ST fairly early in 2022.

Reminder - there are some important differences between TXP and other small EP companies about to ramp production.

1. Zero debt (really big item).

2. Wells are cheaper - no horizontals and fracking like shale wells

3. Wells are tapping conventional reservoirs in pressurized sands that will produce for many years, not peter off in 18 months like shale wells.

4. Guaranteed price for all the gas at very profitable rate. Upside potential for the liquids.

5. timing of cash flow ramp will easily cover all the costs of 2 rig drilling program. No need for dilutive equity raises or for any borrowing.

There are not many if any oil and gas companies at this stage of development that have all these positives.

Trading as if Coho is small pool, Cascadura has a couple of good to great zones.

Certainly zero for Cascadura Deep deep zone, zero for chinook, zero for Royston. Zero for portfolio of 21 other prospects on Ortoire. Zero for possibility of meaningful growth in oil production from patchwork of western legacy lands.

Happy if that is from Paul. I have only one ask. Try to include the words “world class” in the RNS. (relating to Chinook rather than Cascadura Deep - which is world class for sure)

Still waiting. I am beginning to think that nothing will really help short term except good natural gas flow rates from upper 341 feet of pay. Lower zone a bust, though it inkles of oil riches way updip. Middle zone unknown but not gas, and oil at modest rates will not help fill the new pipe that NGC is building later this year. And that upper zone at Chinook won’t be tested for many weeks, unless they jump over there while the first tested zone at Cascadura Deep undergoes a pressure build up test before they move uphole there.

Anyway a world class discovery well has to produce at high level and be highly profitable. Chinook not there yet.

How about Thursday or maybe next Monday for next piece of information, and please - with a new number.

Your take on Cascadura is conservative. Monster discovery.

Your take on Chinook is speculative at this point. LOTS of potential. Most important short term is to prove that the upper 341 feet is a productive gas zone (likely liquids rich).
Given the huge size of the Chinook structure, that would add huge reserves as you mention. It would also add another pricing discovery, more development locations, additional cash flow before end of year.

The middle oil zone being tested is an unknown - could range from not commercial to marginally commercial to commercial to hugely commercial. The third zone is an unknown. There is opportunity to spend a few million to drill a well 1200 feet up dip in a structure that has trace oil and huge water drive nearer the bottom. That is exciting but not a slam dunk and can wait a bit.

You are absolutely right that the entire portfolio of prospects art is stunning.

I continue to have high conviction. I am happily adding share, got some at US$ 1.95 on Friday. That opportunity will end if some of these questions have positive answers. On the other hand some disappointing answers at chinook and the lowest zone at cascadura deep (only previously untested zone there) will likely lead (short term) to lower share prices and even better “bargain”. If so the buying opportunity may continue through Royston results.

That as big as they get. Looking around it seems that some of the 56 inch pipelines have capacity of 6 BCF/day.

always a good sign but nothing really can happen until we get a new number (or a few new numbers). Until
then it is all noise.

I am glad they are investing in an experienced (right experience too) geologist to add to team right now.

Share price depends solely on whether they drill the world’s first pure helium well, finding a trap holding helium gas in absence of hydrocarbons. All else is just noise.

Maybe both

Recent article about huge activity off Guyana and Surinam highlight current situation in Trinidad. Touchstone gets a lot of attention just forCoho and first Cascadura well.
If Cascadura Deep is a huge well as expected, if Chinook is
a productive field, and if Royston is gas filled reservoir, Touchstone will go from big story to huge story. All that could happen in next few months.

https://oilnow.gy/featured/guyana-suriname-leading-caribbean-drilling-what-about-tt/?fbclid=IwAR2fEl6RvttO_ozZAK1DaU6nlyN18fp4ov7I19dNTh_u2NDEVrRYhIdu6Gw

I had really expected one number. Otherwise why schedule a paid promotional interview? And we do not have one new number yet. But I remember the gal asking Paul - “What is the biggest risk?”. And he said - “Delays.”.

He did not say “Chinook might be a bust”. He did not say - “Worry about Cascadura Deep not being hugely prolific.”

Paul was teasing about a flare like this one - kind of doubt we will get that from any gas component of the middle chinook zone.

https://twitter.com/silent_trades/status/1367735295001595907?s=21

https://twitter.com/silent_trades/status/1367735295001595907?s=21

Paul said they would release results on each zone as they were tested. He joked about it being hard to hide a giant flare, likely talking about expected results on upper two cascadura deep zones and hoped for results on deepest CD zone and upper chinook zone.

But if they are getting serious oil production from the chinook middle zone, it might also be hard to hide the oil trucks coming and going. They don’t. have big tanks there - they might even be collecting the oil in tanker trucks.

The Chinook test that really matters is the test for gas in the highest 341 feet. And that is weeks away.

they also may need to drill a few more wells to produce known zones. For example they are only planning to produce one of two equally prolific zones from the Cascadura1-ST well. (the upper one).

They can likely produce the lower zone from the Cascadura Deep well, but maybe could not produce the upper zone (for additional output) or the new lowest zone, not yet proven. They are doing a careful analysis which will be refined as they get more results, to design the optimal plan to produce at Cascadura discovery.

I hope they will need to do similar planning to produce Chinook, but that depends on proving that upper 341 foot zone.

Nobody ever said Cascadura1-ST wasn’t a monster well. No one ever said that Cascadura Deep is not very likely a monster well. No one ever said that TXP did not handle the high pressures and high flows at those 2 wells in an expert manner.

All I am saying is that I am eager to learn if they have discovered another productive reservoir at Chinook. It is obvious the stock price has plateaued and is waiting on that information. Meanwhile I am not frustrated by the timing - in fact I have been using it as an opportunity to build my position.

I don’t have cold feet - still buying. I am just eager for Chinook results from the top sand, because that will prove up another discovery. They have been talking about development wells at Chinook, too early in my opinion
until that upper zone produces. Maybe they had big gas shows while drilling but they talked about that at Cascadura Deep but not at Chinook. Anyway I am happily buying - I won’t even mention my one reservation because it has little to do with the company or its prospects. I have high conviction. If Chinook is a bust I still won’t sell but I will hold for awhile to see where it settles.

Coho is what it is. Cascadura is a proven world class discovery much bigger than Coho. The Cascadura1-ST well can only be produced from one of two prolific zones, because of size of pipe. Cascadura Deep can at vey least produce equal amount. There is also room for a couple of more development wells’s at Cascadura. All that is solid. And the “deep” of cascadura deep has yet to be entered, which is an upside potential.

But Chinook is a little more dicey. The lowest zone was water with trace of oil - sets up another uptick well but that will be also be exploratory well. The middle zone has some oil and is going on pump but may or not produce anything. The upper 341 feet could be high production gas zone, which would not only give us another productive reservoir with room for development wells but would also make Royston an even better prospect. But is could also be non-productive. Right now Chinook is just an exploratory well waiting to be tested. If Chinook and Royston are both non- productive, then the share price is probably about right. So again, the 341 feet of “pay” at Chinook is the total key to the next up leg.