Member Info for Scott22

DERISK Royston, not derail it. Text editor liked second word better. I prefer first word.

It is becoming clear that the most important number in near term will be the test of the upper 341 feet at Chinook. If Chinook is a world class discovery there has to be prolific nat gas production from that zone. That would also further derail Royston by keeping intact the geological interpretation they have been developing. Cascadura Deep numbers should be great and will have wow factor ( natural gas under great pressure blew out to top of pipe during drilling) but that well is only 900 feet away from Cascadura1-ST and in same reservoir for most part (lowest 180 feet is a different sand). So we are already getting credit for Cascadura discovery - that doubled market cap of company. New well will add reserves and production for sure, but high production at Chinook will be bigger in near term. It would add a whole new reservoir that is very large.

Not really any new information except upgrading the estimated size of the prospect. from 50 plus BCF to 90 plus BCF of helium. That is a pretty sizable target, and hopefully the new seismic will refine their aim.

First attempt in world to drill a pure helium well. No hydrocarbons at all. Presumably Helium and nitrogen. Should be able to tape that with a tiny straw, or at least with a small well bore.

I am the token US buyer. I put in order for 10,000 more today.

I am just kind of fascinated in owning a piece of a company that might drill the works first helium sans hydrocarbons well, where the intent is to capture helium, a much more concentrated helium source than has ever been found before.

Not that often you can be part of a first in the world event. And this next few months will be the result of years of work to get to this point. If they drills helium well I will make a little money. If they don’t drill a helium well I will have paid for a seat at a highly interesting event.

He also said that the new rig is perfect for doing development wells over on the oil blocks over on west side. Those are a lot shallower but they this new rig may be easier to move and set up quickly. Just a guess because of how they describe it.

It was a fine presentation. However there was not one new number and the market needs a new number to move upward. Maybe it will be results from the deepest Cascadura zone, not likely to be the best of the three. They start the hat end of week or over the weekend. Maybe it will be the extended flow test (on pump) of the intermediate zone at Chinook. I was kind of surprised that that won’t even start until next week. Can’t really figure out what the crew over a Chinook site has been going for the last 6 weeks.

It is good that the will release the results as they come.

I am patient. I have been buying recently with idea that this may be last opportunity at this level. I think we all may be able to buy at around this level (give or take 15 cents) until we get a new number of significance.

Yes TXP found what could be a large amount of oil. But a hint is not a number. If wishes were horses, beggars might ride. Meanwhile good chance to add shares at a very reasonable price point.

Bought some today at $1.98 US. Have orders in for $1.95 and $1.90. High conviction. Check back in 6 months and 12 months and see if I was correct.

It is odd that the shares on London market grinding down during session while premarket US has been trending up by a couple cents over last couple of hours. There are some arbitrage opportunities for the bigger players.

The sub thrust flowed 2200 barrels a day but it was mostly all water. Maybe related to a fracture to a deeper water source. I really do not know how that relates to flow rates of the middle zone or water cut there, if any. I guess we will find out. But obviously the initial findings there are different since they decided to do extended flow test in the intermediate zone while they quickly plugged and abandon the lowest zone. (though with plans to test it again 1000 feet up dip at some point in a future well).

We need a new number. Could be almost any number if good.

1. Flow rate from lowest Cascadura Deep well which is a new zone.

2. Flow rate from one or both upper Cascadura Deep zones which really should be awesome.

3. Results from extended flow test at Chinook intermediate zone proving commerciality.

4. Flow rate from upper Chinook Zone proving commercial gas discovery

None of these numbers require new drilling, just delineation of what has already been drilled.

The only one that Paul could possibly comment about on Wednesday would be an update on the prolonged testing (for oil production) on the intermediate zone. That is the most likely of the four to be disappointing and would leave the Chinook well (described as “world class”) with only one more shot (the upper 341 feet of presumed nat gas pay) to even be a commercial well.

i thought it was 2 percent Helium.

He1 is looking for Helium without hydrocarbons/ Maybe Helium and nitrogen? I am not sure what concentration of helium they are looking for but some of the seeps have 11 percent helium (I think I read that).

The reserves update can’t get substantially higher in next few weeks. That is a once a year deal.

As I said before we need a new number to move up.

At Chinook the deepest 68 foot deep bonus zone in sub thrust sheet has zero commercial value but hints at potential if entered higher.

Intermediate 180 foot zone tested light oil and is on extended test for oil with commerciality not yet determined.

Upper 341 feet and primary target they still think is a gas bearing zone but there no production number.

No Cascadura Deep testing yet so no new number there - but those numbers are almond st certain to be good.

So lots of positives but lacking one new number. There may be a buying opportunity for awhile until we get one. Not frustrated (Paul told us to be patient) but positive speculation without a new number will not move share price. Just my opinion of course.

Demand for NG is even higher locally in Trinidad than across the world. The contract with the NGC is a win/win for the company and the country. They need feedstock for petrochemical industry and also for power generation as 100 percent of electricity on Trinidad comes from natural gas powered turbines. The TXP NGC contract will provide nat gas to country at cheaper price than importing LNG or getting it from off shore fields. And at the same time they have agreed to buy all the gas from the Ortoire Block for 30 years at a fixed price that can be reviewed and adjusted after 5 years. They supply all the infrastructure and the price TXP gets at well head (virtually no overhead after well is drilled) assures high profit margin. That price is about $2.50 less a nickel of operating cost and 12.5 % taxes.
And they are not locked out of upside if there is an oil shock because the gas has significant liquids that they sell separately - and there may even be oil yet to be discovered - Kracken anyone? From this point demand and price for nat gas are simply not a concern. Not true for most small energy companies. And the amount of nat gas they have is much greater that the market realizes.

NO but I might tomorrow.

Kind of funny that folks get worried about 1 pence changes while things are just simmering here - but Gamestock can go up $100 (like tonight after market) and probably down $100 in the morning and no one thinks anything off it. Not to mention a bitcoin jumping or falling $5,000 in one day for no particularly good reason.

I think I can live with a pence change, or even a two pence change. The idea is to have some skin in the game as I watch this play out over the next three months. I enjoyed watching the interview with CEO Minchin on ProActive.

I am not sure what to expect. First of all it is not a proven discovery well until it flows commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.

Chinook is a BIG structure and it is deeper than the Cascadura structure. I am hoping it is similarly charged with liquids rich natural gas under pressure. It is only 1.3 km away from Cascadura but it is a different structure so we won't really know for sure until it is tested. I hope we don't get faked out by modest flow rates (even if commercial) from the 68 feet of pay in lowest zone. (like 10mmcf/day which would be excellent but not "world class"). That will be the first number we will see if they release the results as they come in. I am hoping that the upper two zones will flow similar to the Cascadura1-ST zones which would be truly amazing.

Chinook is much bigger in area than Cascadura, also deeper by quite a bit. Will be very interesting to see what the pressures and flow rates actually are. The first Chinook zone they are testing will be the smallest, only 68 feet of pay, but by far the deepest zone to be tested so far. Pressures may even higher since deeper but not for certain. Also unsure whether the well will flow the same, but they are similar sands. We will just have to see. Exciting times.

Cascadura1-ST 1. Deep zone- 162 feet of pay (6056 to 6218) - flow tested 5500 boe/d (equipment constrained)
2. Upper zone 345 feet of pay (5570-5915) - flow tested 5500 boe/d (equipment constrained)

Chinook 1. Deepest zone - 68 feet of pay (9750-10003)
2. Middle zone - 180 feet of pay (8850-9150)
3. Upper zone - 341 feet of pay (8154-8710)

Good recap and summary. That sums up why we are here and why I am still buying (modestly but steadily) as long as shares are where they are now. Just seems compelling compared to the other holdings that I now have (and compelling compared to my new ideas that I am researching).

We need a number to move up. Even a good flow test number from the lowest Chinook zone (confirming that is is a discovery or even better a "world class" discovery - their words, not mine).

I am hoping we get one number on March 10 - from Chinook since I am not worried about Cascadura Deep.

Cascadura Deep has plenty of pay in the same prolific Herrera zone that caused all the pressure problems 900 feet away at Cascadura1-ST - they encountered the same high pressure that blew the gas to the top of the pipe at this well too, so that they had difficulty controlling the well and could not proceed to the planned test of deeper zone. The scenario is the same as what happened at Cascadura1-ST. There are some new sands they are testing, that could add some spice, but virtually no chance they won't get good production from this well.

That was 80 feet of net pay in Cruse