Member Info for Scot126

19:36

Hi BoomtittyBoom - trades marked by market makers after 16:35 are invariably "OTD" orders, or "over the day" orders. This sees market makers and brokers execute an order throughout the trading day incrementally in order to, eg. accumulate stock without driving the SP up *or* to sell a line of stock without driving the SP down. The two larger orders to which you refer which were marked after 16:35 on Thursday look very much like that to me.

Another alternative for stocks like 88E which are traded on multiple exchanges (ASX, AIM, OTC and [Germany???]) is that brokers may be looking to balance up their books by accessing an overseas pool of liquidity. That business has to be marked also. Hope that helps.

Hi SuperRoty - I appreciate fully you're a loyal disciple of OMJ's trading strategy. But do you really believe there's any evidence to suggest the US mug casino OTC punters which delivered ill-informed speculative spikes in 2021 and 2022 are still hanging around 88E? A quick look at the 88E twitter account will soon disabuse anyone of that foolhardy notion. Calls to shut down the company and sad tales of folk losing their savings point to no such wave in 2024. Quite the opposite.

Another question which no-one on this forum is prepared to confront. Why should an investor or a trader purchase 88E shares when ***even on a 100% success case for the Hickory-1 flow tests of the SMD and SFS horizons*** they would be paying more for an 88E barrel of oil in the ground v's a higher classification barrel of oil in the ground for PANR? Now that 88E has debt on its balance sheet, that sole comparator of difference is no longer valid. Buying 88E simply doesn't make mathematical sense, does it SuperRoty? Why not admit to this forum that you're simply here to play pass the parcel in the hope that when the music stops you'll have traded in and out of 88E and will be long gone? Why not admit it?

09:19

Hi sporazene - I think I understand where you're coming from when you describe your assumption that "vendor financing [is] unlikely to be concluded until the IER is finalised." The reason I think I understand your way of thinking is because, initially, I suspected that may be the case too. But I was wrong.

I asked an O&G industry veteran (non-PANR employee) why the likes of Baker Hughes/SLB/NABORS/Halliburton et al. wouldn't just wait for the IER to be published before making a decision whether to move forward with PANR or not. He described to me that "the usual suspects" (as Jay described the 6 oil field service firms [OFS] who had already signed NDAs and had access to the dataroom) would have hundreds of in-house experts who themselves could analyse PANR's dataset without relying on any input from external experts. He further informed me that the in-house geologists/reservoir engineers/geophysicists/civil engineers/logistics specialists/drillers/completion engineers/project managers/seismic experts traditionally had a rather superior view of their own skillset v's those of IER/CPR authors! "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach." Of course that's all rather unfair but you catch the drift.

When I heard this response it reminded me of a time when Phillip Gobe and Jay were asked about commissioning an IER back in the Texas days. They both confirmed that when they were on the other side of the table, say at ARCO, executives in the larger companies would rely completely on their own in-house analysis of the raw data and would more or less discard the findings of the IER authors.

I think the message I took from these interactions was that IERs/CPRs are incredibly useful for the equity markets, for specialist funders, for banks and commodity trading houses. The Netherland Sewell IERs have definitely benefited PANR shareholders. I hope we're all noting that the bears/trolls no longer say outlandish stuff like "there is no oil" and "there is no regional seal between Talitha and Theta West" and "PANR directors have made up the data and are lying to the market", etc, etc. The Netherland Sewell studies and industry-leading professional reputation have seen off that angle of attack, no question.

What is clear to me after investigating this matter further is that the industry corporates *always* do their own analysis. Remember Schlumberger has worked for >12 months on a 13m cell reservoir analysis on the Basin Floor Fan. That data will be available to all the other parties in the dataroom.

The new leases? The associated seismic data will be added to the dataroom now that the leases have been secured in the latest auction. It will be a very simple process to allow those parties who have already signed NDAs to have the terms extended to include the data associated with the extra 66k acres. Dead easy.

Summary: news about vendor finance truly *could* arrive any time from January onwards.

Dear All - PANR re-joined both the FTSE AIM 100 *and* FTSE AIM 50 in the December review. PANR isn't strictly in the top 50 by mkt cap but it scores very highly in liquidity (stock turnover) and has a very high free float. I *suspect* those added factors have assisted PANR in re-joining the AIM 50 index, likely at the expense of a few companies with slightly higher mkt caps.

Looks like the index changes were implemented at cob on Friday,15th December, becoming effective on the open on Monday, 18th December. Russell took the data from PANR mkt cap/liquidity/free float at the close of business

on Monday, 20th November (along with data from all the other index members).

 

There's been a rather noticeable uptick in volume over the last week or so, hasn't there? With no sign of Mangrove adding to or reducing their position, I'd have thought it's not unreasonable to hold these index revisions responsible for the enhanced volume. I have zero idea how long this enhanced volume will continue. For all I know the index funds could have completed their re-weighting?

  

 

"FTSE Russell will review the FTSE AIM Index Series on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December each year. The constituent reviews are based on data from the close of business on the Monday 4 weeks prior to the review effective date. Any constituent changes are implemented after the close of business on the third Friday of the review month (i.e. effective Monday)."

 

"FTSE Russell announces the quarterly changes to the FTSE AIM UK 50, FTSE AIM 100 and FTSE AIM All-Share Indices. The changes will be applied after the close of business on Friday, 15 December 2023 and will be effective on Monday, 18 December 2023."

 

Thank you, boom.boom. That makes sense.

Chrisev1 - remember it's a series of flow tests, not drilling this winter season,

From experience up the road, each distinct flow test takes approx 7-10 days. Identify the zone, check it for safety, perforate, frack, flow back, capture flow data and then plug off that interval and move up to the next shallowest zone.

Perhaps you can ask Brom ("I've always found management replies very quickly when I contact them.") to confirm with 88E management if they plan on announcing the initial results from each flow test as and when the data is collected, ie. if 88E flow tests 4 intervals then 4 RNSs. Alternatively, the company *may* opt not to say anything to the market until the whole program is completed.

My *opinion*. Because phones and laptops work fine in the Alaska North Slope, it's probably best practice to announce each flow test result in turn. To adopt the alternative strategy opens the company up to information leaks.

Best of luck to 88E and all its contractors for a safe and successful winter season.

11:47

Why would my presence at the AGM affect your decision to attend, sharenovice22?

16:29

Just some simple fact-checking.

1) main strategy for PANR is to source vendor and offtake capital as described in recent RNSs and webinars. Six "usual suspects" have signed NDAs and are in the dataroom currently.

2) I'm an investor not a trader. You are 100% welcome to judge my investment in PANR when I sell my shares, and not a millisecond before then.

3) Here's the thing about fundamentals, sharenovice22. Fundamentals don't change with the SP. Fundamentals change when empirical data is uncovered and published, e.g.. Dmax.

4) I don't make recommendations because I'm not licensed to do so. I *do* discuss comparative valuations and back it up with research and maths, all fully transparent. You do not because you do not understand how to do so.

5) You keep worrying about personal feelings and I'll keep my attention on the maths. Here's some maths for you. 130p -> 23p or 9.2c -> 0.3c?

6) You recognise 88E is a trading stock ref. "Spike". Not my game. Relies on casino punters for success. Fundamentals rely on facts, science, data, maths and risk assessment.

Toddle off, fantasist.

Lol, shareguru22, nice try. You'll find both this forum and set of shareholders are far more au fait with the fundamentals of both companies than the casino punters on the 88E forum.

Members of this forum know that the quantity and quality of PANR's portions of the shared reservoir are *vastly* superior to those of 88E. And this is no empty assertion. PANR has the empirical data, be it a decade of 3D seismic or from the six wells drilled since 2015, which fully supports my earlier statement.

The upside associated with each company's Alaskan assets is, on the fundamentals, solely in PANR's favour. A reminder to all readers that PANR's portion of the shared reservoir is updip of 88E's and also offers a clear advantage when calculating Dmax.

The only way for 88E to have more SP upside v's PANR based on the upcoming test of Hickory-1 is if I there's another tsunami of US OTC uninformed punters.....and most commentators think that time has passed. Don't believe me? Look at the cries of anguish from the formal 88E Army members on Twitter.

Keep at it, shareguru22. You'll get laughed off this forum for sure. And you'll also be hit with questions like the following. Why should an investor pay more for an 88E barrel of oil in the ground when PANR's barrels are updip, have a higher classification, and are an order of magnitude larger in scale than 88E?

Toddle along now, shareguru22. Let the grown ups do their maths here and you can stick to you factless fantasies elsewhere. Lol.

20:14

It's a pressure bomb, not pressure bulb - fyi. :)

23:12

cbaron - I'm not going to argue with you. To the west of Kodiak, Bob describes "the shelf EDGE dropping off suddenly." Nowhere in the Kodiak briefing does he mention the presence of a "shelf deltaic system."

You've misheard, I'm afraid. Kodiak is a Basin Floor Fan System and the new acreage at Ahpun East is a Shelf Margin Deltaic.

18:42

olderwiser and Rabito79 - please feel free to jump in if I've got the following wrong?

cbaron - I *think* you've not fully understood what Bob was telling us. I'll copy your post and insert the corrections within brackets [....]

"We have everything to the east accessible from the Dalton corridor [true, using long laterals], without the expense of dealing with the Sag River [also true, confirmed by Jay explicitly] and everything to the west to the extent that the shelf margin thins significantly at its landward boundary [Correction. The leases out to the west of the Kodiak chimney comprise the Lower Basin Floor Fans]. Great result!"

[The Ahpun East area is made up Shelf Margin Deltaic type reservoirs, not dissimilar to the SMD at Alkaid but shallower and with better Dmax properties.]

[It was the BFF Lower which Bob described as hitting a metaphorical brick wall just a short distance away from the new boundary, as evidenced by core and other data from historical wells drilled in the 1980s.

Hope that makes sense. If it doesn't make sense to cbaron and the folk who ticked his post then perhaps review the webinar, focussing on bob's description of the new leases. Good stuff.

Dear All - as you can see below, I have no need to exaggerate when I state I have contacts in the market. The reason I don't need to exaggerate is because I worked in the equity markets for 25 years.

Kever, on the other hand, makes stuff up. There was no WH Ireland note which pointed their clients to a figure of $150m being required for PANR to achieve self-sustaining production at Aphun. The correct figure was and always has been $120m.

It seems the moderators on lse are sensitive types. Therefore I'll say the following. *Some* may say that Kever invented a mythical WH Ireland broker note and chose to publish his disinformation on a public forum, which would infer Kewver is a confirmed liar.....but I couldn't possibly comment.

All - Buy, sell or hold PANR but please do not base your decision on anything Kever says.

Part 2 of WH Ireland reaction

Upcoming webinar: Consistent with its philosophy of providing complete technical disclosure, Pantheon will be hosting an investor meeting on Thursday 14th December 2023 at 5:00 GMT – we believe that will be one of the more exciting presentations provided by the company due to the sheer scale of the resource secured via the leasing program and the updip nature of the Kodiak acreage. /end

Dear All - please find below WH Ireland's reaction to today's RNS. dated 14/12/23.

Pantheon Resources

Successful Acquisition of Leases Over Updip Kodiak and Eastern Ahpun

Pantheon Resources announced that pursuant to its leasing programme it has been awarded 66,240 acres on the North Slope covering i) substantially all of the anticipated remaining conventional reservoir potential in the Kodiak Field (43,200 acres) and ii) the eastern extent of the Ahpun Field (23,040 acres). Importantly, the newly acquired Kodiak acreage is updip (higher, shallower) relative to the main body of the field and therefore expected to benefit from better reservoir quality (less compression, higher permeability and higher porosity). In the case of the newly acquired Kodiak acreage, the company believes that the ultimate resource classification will be determined following reviews with Netherland, Sewell and Associates (“NSA”) and SLB. In the case of the new Ahpun acreage, the company stated that it believes the resources would be classified as “prospective” until drilling results (the confirmation of producible hydrocarbons) provide confidence to reclassify the resource as “contingent resources” and ultimately as “reserves”.

Terms: Pantheon’s winning bids averaged $31.83 per acre including fees. The company detailed that when the leases are officially awarded by the state of Alaska, estimated in 4-6 months’ time, they will come with a 10-year initial term, an annual rental of $10/acre and royalty rates of 16.67% (28,800 acres) and 12.5% (37,440 acres).

Significance: We believe the successful licence award is significant for Pantheon Resources because it secures the substantial entirety of the updip / better resource potential of Kodiak and the vast eastern potential of Ahpun. The newly awarded resources would also be included in the expected forthcoming request for development consents from the State of Alaska.

Stealth: Pantheon has extensive proprietary 3D seismic data acquired in 2014. Critically, the company moved big on its leasing program prior to that seismic data becoming partially available to the public in 2024. Prior to today’s announcement, we believe that for commercial reasons the company has been discreet publicly in respect of the potential of its newly acquired leases. We believe it is a mistake to confuse that discretion with the potential significance of the newly acquired leases.

Resource Updates: We believe the new lease awards heighten the interest in the forthcoming resource updates expected to be provided in early 2024 by NSA – representing a critical forthcoming milestone prior to an FID decision expected for Ahpun by end 2025. In today’s announcement, the company provided its own resource assessments and chances of success (see Table 1) – we are talking about the award of world-class resources.

Part 1 - see above for Part 2.

Dear All - Canaccord note below

Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production | Flash Update

New leases complete control of the potential development areas

PANR-AIM | Price 17p | Market Cap £159.9M

SPECULATIVE BUY Unchanged

PRICE TARGET 105p Unchanged

Canaccord Genuity view

Acquisition of leases expands Kodiak and Ahpun coverage

Pantheon has been awarded over 66,000 acres of new licences on the Alaska North Slope, neighbouring its current 193,000 acres. The company believes that this gives it essentially all of the remaining conventional reservoir potential to the north and west of the Kodiak field, and the full potential extension of resources to the east of the Ahpun field.

This is a significant step, and with 100% working interest across all this new area and the rest of the company's licences, Pantheon's position and control is secured for the long term.

Kodiak: Pantheon has added 43,200 acres to the north and west of its current licences, over an area which the company believes - from the drilling results to date and the 3D seismic data - to offer improved reservoir quality and a significant potential uplift to the resource base.

Ahpun: Pantheon has added 23,040 acres to the east of the currently defined field which could be largely conveniently accessed from the west side of the Sag river. Notably, Pantheon sees potential for improved reservoir quality in shallower reservoirs than currently evaluated.

Timetable: The 3D seismic data which covers Pantheon's current licence area and beyond is due to become publicly available in 2024 and so it was essentially to tie up the maximum development potential ahead of potential competitor interest. This licence award achieves that.

While Pantheon has achieved the winning bids ($32/acre), the leases will be formally award by the State of Alaska in 4-6 months. Royalty rates are typical for the area, ranging from 12.5% to 16.7%. The licences have a 10-year initial term.

Volumetrics: The company has estimated best case gross (at 100% WI and pre-royalty) recoverable resources of c.1 billion barrels (63% Western Kodiak leases; 37% Eastern Ahpun leases) associated with the new licence awards. These are based on a range of recovery factors from 8-20% depending on reservoir specifics.

Pantheon believes the Kodiak area licences resources have a >90% chance of success, and the Ahpun area licences have 70% chance of success.

Independent resources report: A full review of all the licence area (previous and new) is underway and being conducted by Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSAI) and SLB (formerly Schlumberger). The company is targeting NSAI to provide its report on Kodiak in Q1 24 and on Ahpun in Q2 24. We anticipate those will be important updates with potentially significant market impact.

Valuation, target price and rating:

Pending those independent resource updates, we maintain our risked NPV10 based target price of 105p and our Speculative BUY rating.

Back of the envelope calculations. The leases Pantheon secured in the Alaskan State auction yesterday look like they'll deliver an upgrade to the Technically Recoverable Resource of c.30%.....and the SP is up 8%?????

This is an outstanding result for shareholders. Plus the RNS is replete with detailed and substantive information. Good stuff. Very much looking forward to the webinar.

Kodiak - the chimney part of this Unit excites me, and obviously excites Bob! Note how the company is no longer shying away from describing reservoir quality as meeting the threshold for "conventional" status. Note also that the company is now stating in RNSs that the Kodiak model sees RFs of "up to 20%". It was flagged as a possibility a few webinars ago but they're no longer mincing their words. Secrecy is "no longer a consideration." That's emphatic - love it!

Aphun to the east of Dalton/TAPS.

Got to welcome anything near the roadside and, in part, within the disturbed corridor. Will long laterals allow PANR access to these resources without building bridges over the Sag River? Looks like it. Keep an eye on Armstrong's exploration activity this winter. They secured leases to the east of the Dalton last year.

Excellent RNS. Well done to Bob and technical team.

I've already received an email inviting me to join up for the webinar this evening. See RNS for details.

PANR just picked up another 66k acres in the latest Alaska DNR lease auction. All *contiguous* to existing PANR leases.

hTTps://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/E342DF860CA149C9B93192004563CE32/Fall%202023%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Lease%20Sales%20Results%20Package.pdf

Looks like PANR has bid c.$2m for the 66k acres. Pages 5 and 6 of the pdf (link above) are the pertinent ones for PANR and 88E.

Looks like two main areas have been secured by PANR. A cluster of blocks to the west of the Kodiak chimney (BFF Lower as was) and a thin strip of new blocks immediately to the east of Dalton/TAPS, opposite Alkaid/Talitha and north of 88E Phoenix project.

Interestingly, to me anyway, is that the new blocks to the east of Dalton/TAPS extend southwards to the border with 88E. Is PANR thinking the impending flow tests of the SMD and SFS at Hickory-1 will have positive implications for their far larger updip portions of these reservoirs?

I'd have thought PANR will publish an RNS at 7am tomorrow.

Looks like PANR bid $31.20 per acre in their area of Alaska v's an average of $35 per acre paid by all parties across the North Slope Areawide region.

Hmmmm, odd. Last year 88E secured some acreage to the north of PANR, either side of the Dalton/TAPS, just on the southern edge of Deadhorse. 88E cunningly named it Leonis, PANR's former title for some acreage handed back to the state a couple of years ago further to the west. Well, it looks like a non-88E subsidiary has "infilled" the 88E Leonis project blocks. I wonder who is behind "Arctic Circle Exploration LLC"???? I'll investigate further!

PANR just picked up another 66k acres in the latest Alaska DNR lease auction. All *contiguous* to existing leases. What have Bob and his technical wizards come up with now???!!! :

hTTps://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/E342DF860CA149C9B93192004563CE32/Fall%202023%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Lease%20Sales%20Results%20Package.pdf

Ok, looks like PANR has bid c.$2m for the 66k acres. Pages 5 and 6 of the pdf (link above) are the pertinent ones for PANR.

Looks like two main areas have been secured by PANR. A cluster of blocks to the west of the Kodiak chimney (BFF Lower as was) and a thin strip of new blocks immediately to the east of Dalton/TAPS, opposite Alkaid/Talitha.

Interestingly, to me anyway, is that the new blocks to the east of Dalton/TAPS extend southwards to the border with 88E. Is PANR thinking the impending flow tests of the SMD and SFS at Hickory-1 will have positive implications for the northern, larger updip portions of these reservoirs?

I'd have thought we'll get an RNS at 7am tomorrow.

Looks like PANR bid $31.20 per acre in their area of Alaska v's an average of $35 per acre paid by all parties across the North Slope Areawide region.

Hmmmm, odd. Some will remember 88E secured some acreage to the north of PANR, either side of the Dalton/TAPS, just on the southern edge of Deadhorse. They cunningly named it Leonis, PANR's former title for some acreage handed back to the state a couple of years ago. Well, it looks like a non-88E subsidiary has "infilled" the 88E Leonis project. I wonder who is behind "Arctic Circle Exploration LLC"???? I'll investigate further!

......or perhaps poor spelling and grammar is a prerequisite for joining the troll army?!