Member Info for Scot126

Dear All - please see below a link to Flight's tweet about the possibility of the long-mooted Alaskan gas pipeline getting to the starting line.

hTTps://x.com/Flight_Useful/status/1764862523243635113?s=20

Why is this a game changer for Pantheon Resources?

A) PANR's gas is

Ok, Shareguru22 - what have you done this time?

A) PANR's gas is

Ok, trying to post my commentary without the weblinks. Hope it works this time.

Dear All - please see below a link to Flight's tweet about the possibility of the long-mooted Alaskan gas pipeline getting to the starting line.

Why is this a game changer for Pantheon Resources?

A) PANR's gas is

[continued from post below, keeps getting chopped in half, sorry.]

Why is this a game changer for Pantheon Resources?

A) PANR's gas is

Dear All - please see below a link to Flight's tweet about the possibility of the long-mooted Alaskan gas pipeline getting to the starting line.

hTTps://x.com/Flight_Useful/status/1764862523243635113?s=20

Why is this a game changer for Pantheon Resources?

A) PANR's gas is

Dear All - please see below a link to Flight's tweet about the possibility of the long-mooted Alaskan gas pipeline getting to the starting line.

hTTps://x.com/Flight_Useful/status/1764862523243635113?s=20

Why is this a game changer for Pantheon Resources?

A) PANR's gas is

04:24

Thanks olderwiser - very useful context.

00:29

Hi Daz1969 - I started my broking career in Oz and as part of that became a licensed SEATS dealer. The Aussie trading system is a matched system with fixed increments on price movements. For stocks trading below an Australian cent, the increments are a tenth of a cent. So looking at today's trading activity on a graph, practically all the volume has traded at 0.5c. From 0.5c there are only two choices if the SP is to move; up to 0.6c or down to 0.4c. It cannot trade at, e.g. 0.52c or 0.48c because the incremental movement is fixed at +/- 0.1c.

IMHO the Aussie trading system is excellent, far superior to the UK and US systems. However it is open to a wee bit of abuse. As an example, 88E could have traded at 0.5c all day but if the very last trade is at 0.6c then it'll show 0.6c as the closing price. This sorta behaviour occurs in all markets but in my experience it's easier in Oz than in other markets to dress up the closing price.

Best thing to do for an accurate picture is to look for a price/volume graph if you can find one. That gives a better representation of the genuine activity throughout the day. Hope that helps.

22/2/24 @ 18:00

Hi 3standsoffbottom – I have a question for you please. To set the scene, philosophically I have zero problem with shorting. I placed my first short in 1997! Where I do have a problem is when there’s a widespread conspiracy to flood the zone with disinformation in order to undermine a company’s reputation, undermine belief in its published data and to allege impropriety on the part of the BoD.

I appreciate fully there’s a fee for allowing your stock to go out on loan. However, is there a point at which you weigh up the stock lending fee against the possibility you’re facilitating not only a deeply unethical short attack but also damaging your medium to long term economic interests?

Totally up to you, of course, if you elect to answer my question. I’m just interested in understanding the thought process with a nod to PANR’s current situation? To be open on my side, I do not allow my broker to lend out my PANR stock.

Hi Grumpyscouser & Sirmark – I note you’re both keeping a beady eye on Mangrove’s short. I do too. I check out the FCA short positions at the same time every day, part of my daily routine! I have to say that I have not observed Mangrove seeking to “get round” the reporting rules on any of their UK positions, current or historical. I’m of the opinion we should just take their published position as accurate, until and unless there is evidence to the contrary.

Part 3; continued from Part 2 below

29th Feb @ 16:34

Hi Goldwater - if you believe an 88E barrel in the ground should be valued at or below a higher classification barrel in the ground in their immediate peer’s acreage then the maths suggests the 88E SP should be approx. 0.2p after the company announces two successful flow tests. Many on this forum think the SP will move higher but they have not offered a single justification for this belief.

Neither of the flow tests are anticipated to be “dusters”. The data collected last year when Hickory-1 was drilled identified the presence of hydrocarbons. The flow tests will be assessing the probability of the discovery being declared commercial or not.

29th Feb @ 07:46

Erskine – I take your point about adults taking responsibility for their actions. Quite right. So, in that spirit, can you inform the forum on what basis you calculate the SP could be 2p in the next fortnight?

- These flow tests won’t be able to upgrade the P50 recoverable resources number so a tenfold upgrade to volume of recoverable oil is a non-starter.

- These flow tests won’t be confirming barrels of liquid gold or higher quality oil because 88E knows the chemical make up of the oil from samples collected last year. So the value of the oil can’t be upgraded.

So, if we know the volume and value of the oil will not increase as a result of these two flow tests, how on earth can you justify the SP increasing by 7 times? Just a random number generator. /end of Part 3

28th Feb @ 08:10

Hi Minden – I strongly disagree with you that “there is no comparison to the past history of drilling results.” Due to the fact 88E is downdip of its immediate peer’s portion of the shared acreage, it is imperative 88E shareholders examine the results from historical drills in the location. The most obvious comparator for Hickory-1 is surely Talitha #A and perhaps the re-entry of Alkaid-2 to test the SMD. Due to the data sharing between 88E and its immediate peer, I hope and pray the frack design will reflect the improved efficiency of the Alkaid-2 re-entry and flow test. Do remember that a successful flow test at Hickory-1 will have a leveraged upside effect on 88E’s immediate neighbour due to its acreage being updip of 88E. Unsuccessful flow tests at 88E’s Hickory-1 will see significant downgrades to 88E’s numbers. This is in stark contrast to the immediate peer because the data collected at Talitha #A will not change one iota so no downside risk for them.

Part 2; continued from Part 1 below

I’d offer a second main reason, more technical in nature. The US OTC punter hordes are nowhere to be seen. They were last spotted departing in 2022 and have not returned since.

Also there’s the shares issued by 88E to the Namibian vendor which will have to be sold in the market in order to fund the 2D seismic study to be undertaken later this year. Plus 88E is being deleted from the AlL Ords Index, effective by COB on 15/3/24.

So, the fundamentals suggest 88E is expensive versus its immediate peer, there’s some identifiable selling which must occur and the punter cohort have not turned up. Perhaps the US punter cohort has moved on from 88E? Hope that helps.

1st March @ 08:46 and 07:57

Musk15 and chrisev1 – the reason a company is deleted from an Index like the All Ords is usually because the market cap has decreased to a level below a set threshold. The other main reason is liquidity in the stock is below the required level. 88E is a pretty liquid stock so I’m 99% certain it’s because the mkt cap is too small to be included after the current revision. For such prolific and outspoken members of this forum, it is surely surprising, nay shocking, you didn’t know this very basic information about equity indices. The deletion of 88E from the index means that tracker funds will have to sell all of their 88E shares by close of business on Friday, 15th March. Hope that helps.

1st 07:21

Musk15 – If either or both of the flow tests at Hickory-1 “flow oil at good rates then we will never see these share prices again.” My question to you is why? I’m pretty sure you mean that the SP will move higher on a successful flow test, correct? But why should that be the case? 88E’s immediate peer has completed a minimum of 7 successful flow tests and yet the market values its barrels of oil in the ground at half the price of an 88E barrel of oil in the ground, before a single flow test has even begun? By what logic or precedent can you offer as support for your belief that the 88E SP will move higher if there is a successful flow test(s)?

29th Feb @ 18:17

Triumph1 – the company has been definitive in its guidance about newsflow. They have told the market to expect a separate and distinct RNS detailing the result from each flow test once each has been completed. So, two RNS. The first one will describe the SFS flow test results and the second will be after the SMD-B test has been completed. Hope that helps.

End of Part 2; see above for Part 3

Part 1

1st March @ 12:46

Learningtoinvest - when an E&P company has a "diversified portfolio" it usually means diversified by location and/or diversified by mature/development/E&P assets owned. Hope that helps.

1st March @ 12:31

Hi Taximan57 – Correction. The Merlin 1 and Merlin 2 wells are located about 100 miles west of Hickory-1. The Merlin wells are on Project Peregrine acreage and haven’t been flow-tested. The Hickory-1 well is the one being flow tested this season. Have a read of some recent RNSs and slide packs and the location is clear to see. Hope that helps.

1st March @ 11:19

Justice2u – Hickory-1 is a vertical test well. The Slope Fan System and Shelf Margin Deltaic horizons are due to be flow-tested over the next 3-4 weeks or so. In order for 88E to add to the Alaskan state production figures mentioned in the Petroleum News article it will require many more appraisal wells to be drilled, infrastructure to be installed to treat the produced hydrocarbons, a Long Term Production Test, permission to tap into TAPS…..we’re talking at least $200m investment required in my estimation, and will take at least another 4-5 years. Hope that helps.

1st March @ 09:25

Musk15 – I can offer a reason. 88E’s immediate peer has invested US$300-400m over the last 14 years or so on the shared acreage. They have drilled 6 wells, flow tested 4 of them (at least 7 horizons tested in four locations) including one LTPT. They have constructed a permanent pad at Alkaid-2, complete with infrastructure to treat the hydrocarbons produced. They have had access to a 3D seismic study for a decade ($80m investment). They have commissioned 3 x IERS, one of which was authored by Netherland Sewell and certified a contingent resource of 963mmbo of saleable liquids. Despite all this activity, all this investment and the terabytes of empirical data collected, the equity market is valuing each of their 2.415bbo recoverable resource at approx. 10p per barrel in the ground. 88E is literally years behind their immediate peer, hundreds of millions of dollars still to invest to obtain the equivalent data and yet, bizarrely, each Project Phoenix barrel in the ground is valued at around 18-19p. This value of 18-19p per 88E barrel in the ground even assumes the two flow tests at Hickory-1 over the next few weeks are a complete success.

End of Part 1; see above for Part 2

Part 2, continued from below.

08:46 and 07:57

Musk15 and chrisev1 – the reason a company is deleted from an Index like the All Ords is usually because the market cap has decreased to a level below a set threshold. The other main reason is liquidity in the stock is below the required level. 88E is a pretty liquid stock so I’m 99% certain it’s because the mkt cap is too small to be included after the current revision. For such prolific and outspoken members of this forum, it is surely surprising, nay shocking, you didn’t know this very basic information about equity indices. The deletion of 88E from the index means that tracker funds will have to sell all of their 88E shares by close of business on Friday, 15th March. Hope that helps.

07:21

Musk15 – If either or both of the flow tests at Hickory-1 “flow oil at good rates then we will never see these share prices again.” My question to you is why? I’m pretty sure you mean that the SP will move higher on a successful flow test, correct? But why should that be the case? 88E’s immediate peer has completed a minimum of 7 successful flow tests and yet the market values its barrels of oil in the ground at half the price of an 88E barrel of oil in the ground, before a single flow test has even begun? By what logic or precedent can you offer as support for your belief that the 88E SP will move higher if there is a successful flow test(s)?

29/2/24 18:17

Triumph1 – the company has been definitive in its guidance about newsflow. They have told the market to expect a separate and distinct RNS detailing the result from each flow test once each has been completed. So, two RNS. The first one will describe the SFS flow test results and the second will be after the SMD-B test has been completed. Hope that helps.

29/2/24

Hi Goldwater - if you believe an 88E barrel in the ground should be valued at or below a higher classification barrel in the ground in their immediate peer’s acreage then the maths suggests the 88E SP should be approx. 0.2p after the company announces two successful flow tests. Many on this forum think the SP will move higher but they have not offered a single justification for this belief.

Neither of the flow tests are anticipated to be “dusters”. The data collected last year when Hickory-1 was drilled identified the presence of hydrocarbons. The flow tests will be assessing the probability of the discovery being declared commercial or not.

End of part 2, see above for part 3.

12:46

Learningtoinvest - when an E&P company has a "diversified portfolio" it usually means diversified by location and/or diversified by mature/development/E&P assets owned. Hope that helps.

12:31

Hi Taximan57 – Correction. The Merlin 1 and Merlin 2 wells are located about 100 miles west of Hickory-1. The Merlin wells are on Project Peregrine acreage and haven’t been flow-tested. The Hickory-1 well is the one being flow tested this season. Have a read of some recent RNSs and slide packs and the location is clear to see. Hope that helps.

11:19

Justice2u – Hickory-1 is a vertical test well. The Slope Fan System and Shelf Margin Deltaic horizons are due to be flow-tested over the next 3-4 weeks or so. In order for 88E to add to the Alaskan state production figures mentioned in the Petroleum News article it will require many more appraisal wells to be drilled, infrastructure to be installed to treat the produced hydrocarbons, a Long Term Production Test, permission to tap into TAPS…..we’re talking at least $200m investment required in my estimation, and will take at least another 4-5 years. Hope that helps.

09:25

Musk15 – I can offer a reason. 88E’s immediate peer has invested US$300-400m over the last 14 years or so on the shared acreage. They have drilled 6 wells, flow tested 4 of them (at least 7 horizons tested in four locations) including one LTPT. They have constructed a permanent pad at Alkaid-2, complete with infrastructure to treat the hydrocarbons produced. They have had access to a 3D seismic study for a decade ($80m investment). They have commissioned 3 x IERS, one of which was authored by Netherland Sewell and certified a contingent resource of 963mmbo of saleable liquids. Despite all this activity, all this investment and the terabytes of empirical data collected, the equity market is valuing each of their 2.415bbo recoverable resource at approx. 10p per barrel in the ground. 88E is literally years behind their immediate peer, hundreds of millions of dollars still to invest to obtain the equivalent data and yet, bizarrely, each Project Phoenix barrel in the ground is valued at around 18-19p. This value of 18-19p per 88E barrel in the ground even assumes the two flow tests at Hickory-1 over the next few weeks are a complete success.

I’d offer a second main reason, more technical in nature. The US OTC punter hordes are nowhere to be seen. They were last spotted departing in 2022 and have not returned since.

Also there’s the shares issued by 88E to the Namibian vendor which will have to be sold in the market in order to fund the 2D seismic study to be undertaken later this year. Plus 88E is being deleted from the AlL Ords Index, effective by COB on 15/3/24.

So, the fundamentals suggest 88E is expensive versus its immediate peer, there’s some identifiable selling which must occur and the punter cohort have not turned up. Perhaps the US punter cohort has moved on from 88E? Hope that helps.

Par

Part 2, continued from below.

12:39

So dull, yet another whinge about a market participant having the gall to carry out and publish fact-based research and comparative analysis on two listed companies who own unequal portions (in quantity and quality) of the same asset. The minute Dave Wall, former MD of 88E, confirmed this fact formally in an RNS, any professional analyst will recognise the imperative to undertake a comparative valuation. The mathematical *fact* that the market is currently valuing a lower quality 88E barrel in the ground at roughly double that of a higher quality PANR barrel in the ground appears to upset SG22 and many others. On a personal level, I can understand their upset. Trouble is, the numbers don't lie and fundamentals always out in the end. As for attracting bad vibes or some such, more gibberish. The attacks are all personal, they never seek to engage on the facts or the maths. Actually, SG22 has had a try at it over the last 24 hours and he's confirmed beyond doubt he's so out of his depth it's pitiful.

16:01

Classy, SG22, making fun of the sector someone is employed in. Pathetic. Actually, have a serve back on me. Your knowledge of spelling and grammar is noticeably below average. "You was" and "your/you're" are staples in your posts. It's not all bad news, SG22, because you're top decile in a specific character trait, self confidence. Admittedly there's no basis for that self-confidence, but you certainly have it in spades. Google "The Dunning-Kruger Effect. /end

Ok, SG22, time for some more schooling. If I were you I'd be hideously embarrassed to be so publicly rebuked on so many *factual* issues (not opinion) over the last few days. The trouble is you lack the self-awareness to acknowledge you're out of your depth ref. knowledge of the E&P sector *and* the ability to read company accounts.

10:17

1) Let's sort out the whole SP performance thing first of all. SG - top to bottom, 88E has moved from US9.2c in 2021 to close at US0.4c on Friday. Compare that to your example of me justifying PANR @ 130p to 25.72p on Friday's close. You say you like numbers. Why don't you work out the % decreases in both cases and tell us?

2) Yep, accounts genius, you've successfully worked out that E&P companies spend money on drilling wells. When that cash is spent, the cashflow statement reflects the movement of cash out of the company to pay for exploration activities. You are a fair dinkum genius to have worked that out, SG22!! The Nobel Prize for Economics is surely yours this year, lol!!

10:24

I'm really glad you posted this gibberish. I knew you would at some point, it was just a matter of time. I was going to point out that you *literally* lack the education to read an E&P company's balance sheet, never mind interpret what it is telling you. To the wider forum, please see olderwiser's comprehensive explanation of "net assets" and "write downs" and "capitalisation of costs v's losses" for E&P companies at 21:53 today. He is, as usual, spot on. It is my assessment that SG22 lacks the education, training or experience to read and understand a set of company accounts.

A concrete example of his triumphant miscomprehension? He genuinely thought the remaining balance on the PANR CB was $17m rather than the correct amount which is a tad under $30m. This is really basic stuff. Note how it was pointed out to him yesterday and yet here he is again today.....posting more gibberish and failing to even acknowledge that he was wrong about the outstanding CB amount. This guy is the very definition of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

11:01

Hi Alfista - FWIW, I have no doubt SG22 is the driving force behind me getting suspended. If, like me, you think this it is deeply unfair that he be permitted to continue his campaign of disseminating factual inaccuracies about both 88E and PANR then the members of this forum will have to pull our fingers out and report him for the deceiver he is. I appreciate fully this forum is more investor focussed v's traders but if we don't fight back against his misinformation this forum will be reading his b0ll0x rather than my fact-based research and analysis. It takes 20 seconds to report each of his posts. It's up to all of us otherwise the deceptive troll wins.

Part 1, see above for Part 2.

09:09

Cool, you're a trader. No worries.

"I just was curious as to why they were getting mor oil at a lower depth and you answered me."

If that's what you've taken from our interaction then knock yourself out.

08:57

Chrisev1 - just for the record, I do not hate 88E and I'm not paid to deramp any company or anybody. Point out a single post where I wish ill on 88E. You won't be able to do so because I don't think that way.

However, let's for the sake of argument say I'm paid a billion dollars to ramp 88E. Why is it that you, chrisev1, and so many others resort to playing the man rather than engaging on the analysis?

Rhetorical question of course. You're terrified that scot126 and Rabito and olderwiser *do* know the facts and it means that 88E is overvalued *even if both flow tests at Hickory-1 are a complete success*.

08:15

Dhb1956dhb - can't help noticing you haven't sought to rebut a single fact or contention about 88E contained in my posts.

Hmmm.....so your thought process was as follows. "I don't like what scot126 is saying here. I've got a bad feeling he knows what he's talking about. Trouble is that I'm in this trade without doing much research about 88E. I know what I'll do! I'll allude to something about his mental health without knowing anything about him. Who cares about all those warnings I hear on the news about Caroline Flack and many others wrt social media. My trading profit is more important to me than behaving like a decent human being."

Pathetic.