Member Info for Scot126

14:26

Stas20 - thank you for this excellent post.

I have rightfully been accused of verbosity in my writing style. So I'll get down to business by referring to the most important sentence contained in your post.

You asked, "Do PANR have 4 times the asset value [of 88E.....PANR mkt cap £380m, 88E mkt cap £90m]?"

There are not many members of this forum who have asked this question publicly. For some it will be because they don't see much, if any, connection between 88E's SP and the assets it owns, preferring simply to bet on the nice, shiny object and hope the SP moves up rather than down because it's the equivalent to a Saturday night trip down to the casino.

Others may not wish to ask the question of themselves or others because they fear the answer, which in turn will confirm that uneasy feeling in their stomach that they've picked the wrong horse and should have done more reading before investing. Note how no-one has engaged with you on this most crucial of questions, Stas20? Illuminating, isn't it?

Still, I’ll try to answer your question because it’s essential someone does. By the way, folk like Brom are perfectly capable of answering your question. He chooses not to because he knows the answer will disappoint the 88E shareholders who follow this forum.

Yes, IMO PANR’s asset base is worth many multiples of 88E’s asset base. I have posted frequently that on 88E’s best day, and no matter how hard I try, I cannot justify 88E’s mkt cap being any greater than 1/7th of PANR’s mkt cap. After today’s news from Netherland Sewell confirming PANR’s new updip acreage ( at BFF/Kodiak) possesses superior reservoir characteristics v’s the downdip parts of the BFF then I am compelled to re-calculate that assessment. I cannot now justify 88E’s mkt cap being any more than 1/10th of PANR’s mkt cap on any given day.

Looking again at my model, the percentage of PANR’s recoverable resources as guided by management, which has subsequently been upgraded and classified as contingent resources, has increased from 42.6% to 53% (PANR’s contingent resources today moved from 1.04bbo to 1.283bbo). Looking at 88E, only 27.5% of its Project Phoenix recoverable resources, as guided by management, is classified as contingent resources.

Stas20 – a question. When you examine the 88E asset base, where specifically are you identifying sufficient value to support your implicit argument that “surely 88E is worth more than a quarter of PANR’s mkt cap”, ref. the final paragraph in your post timed at 14:26 today?

FWIW, in theory you are spot on about the mathematical effects of a share consolidation. The trouble is that in the real world a company like 88E usually undertakes a share consolidation as a prelude to re-launching the narrative of the investment case and seeks to raise fresh capital as part of that process. I'm guessing that’s what RBO was getting at when he suggested you read a book about equity markets

Dear All - I've now had a moment to re-read the RNS and to mull over it. Something new occurred, to me anyway, which I thought worth highlighting.

I think we're all aware from webinars and Proactive interviews of Jay's saying, "Big oilfields get bigger and bigger."

I am happy to be corrected but I cannot recall a previous PANR RNS where Bob Rosenthal has, proverbially, opened the floodgates by giving tacit permission to shareholders to adjust their hopes/expectations to include the Upper Case figures, or High Estimate (3C). Knowing Bob a wee bit, I don't think he would have been comfortable being formally quoted in such a manner had he not possessed, in his own mind and cautious character, pretty concrete supportive data to deliver such a nudge to shareholders.

Have a look at the difference between the Best and High Estimates for marketable liquids within Kodiak. The Best Estimate is 1208mmbo and the High Estimate is 2814mmbo. I suggest that Bob Rosenthal's quote in today's RNS is quite intentional on the Board's part and we would do well to keep Bob's language in mind.

"Bob Rosenthal, Technical Director of Pantheon commented:

"This NSAI report reveals the true scale of the Kodiak Field now that we have secured leases over its full extent. The potential upside is vast - NSAI recognise a high estimate in excess of 2.8 billion barrels of recoverable marketable liquids and nearly 12 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. As we drill wells and obtain additional data, our goal is to progressively move the 'best case estimate' towards NSAI's 'high case estimate' over time.

"Discovering a billion-barrel oil accumulation is what companies dream about and the Independent Expert Report by NSAI validates our Company's significant achievements over the past decade. We can now turn our attention to development, along with our growing Ahpun resource, to turn these volumes to cashflow and value for shareholders."

Dear All - please find below a first reaction summary from Canaccord, dated 9/4/24. TP remains at 85p, fyi.

"Kodiak contingents

Canaccord Genuity view

Pantheon has today released an independent expert's report (IER) conducted by Netherland, Sewell & Associates which accesses [scot126 - "assesses", surely?] the gross contingent resources of the Kodiak acreage in Northern Alaska. The IER presents a 1C, 2C, and 3C estimate for the field:

• Best estimate (2C) of 425.8 mmbbl of oil, 782.1 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 5,396.3 bcf of residue gas.

• Low estimate (1C) of 168.5 mmbbl of oil, 299.9 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 2,175.4 bcf of residue gas.

• High estimate (3C) of 1,029.7 mmbbl of oil, 1,811.6 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 11,748.6 bcf of residue gas.

The IER's 2C estimate represents a 25% increase in Kodiak's reserves [scot126 - "contingent resources", surely?] from the previous report made in August 2023 to 1,208 mmbbl, recognising c.43,000 of the c.66,000 acres of the expanded acreage footprint.

Valuation, target price and rating

We note that this announcement confirms the scale of the opportunity presented by Kodiak for Pantheon, and supports an attractive outlook for the company. However, we leave our target price and rating unchanged while we digest the impact, especially considering the need for further appraisal and the nearer-term focus on Ahpun.

10:40

It's your money to with as you wish, Barno61. In case anyone reading your post thinks as you do about the relative valuations of PANR and 88E, I would pose the following question. If the volume and quality of producible O&G on PANR's acreage was 10x the size of 88E's, would it still make sense to declare a "dead cert".

FWIW - I assess the value of PANR's updip, higher classification barrels of oil in the ground to be well over 10x the market cap of 88E at time of writing.

I will update my "per barrel in the ground" model later today and revert to the forums.

10:07

Ah, Brevarthan/Troughsnout - wouldn't have been a proper upgrade without you sprinkling your forked-tongue content all over the forum. Firstly, I'm delighted your short position is delivering a much reduced profit over the last couple of weeks. I feel somewhat reassured that karma still exists when unethical and deceitful folk like you get hit where it hurts - in your pocket.

Brevarthan's latest post sees him insinuating PANR has timed today's RNS for maximum impact in attracting UK ISA funds in the new financial year. Naturally Troughsnout omits to mention that the NSAI updated IER on Kodiak (incorporating the new acreage secured in the Dec '23 SoA lease auction) was due to be delivered by "the end of Q1'24." The company helpfully published a holding RNS on 28/3/24 giving shareholders a heads up that the IER would be a few days late.

I can't help wondering if NSAI *hadn't* delivered the IER this week whether Brevarthen/Troughsnout would have posted some conspiracy theory about, eg. "David Hobbs' dog eating the IER" or "NSAI is blackmailing PANR for an extra $100k in fees if PANR wished their preferred resource number to be declared in the IER."

You're a greedy, dishonest, unethical villain, Brevarthan. We are still waiting for your risked/unrisked valuation model of PANR to be published. We are still waiting for your answers to olderwiser's brutal obliteration of your "research" note dated 26/2/24. We are still waiting for you to apologise for the factual errors contained within that note and for the subsequent errors in interpretation based on those fundamental errors of fact. We are waiting for you to formally withdraw your note dated 26/2/24.

Brevarthan - I beseech you to increase your short asap.

09:05

Dave73 - I am not exaggerating or being dramatic for effect. I would be absolutely furious if the company was sold for 80p. The asset is worth many multiples of that price. It's time for the market to wake up to the enormity of the asset *and* the supportive empirical data collected by PANR/GB since 2010, costing >$300m to collect.

07:39

That should be "Topset" and not "Topless" ......lol, predictive text or Prof Freud?!

07:28

Hi chriscom - actually, 2 more IERs are expected shortly. One on the Alkaid ZOI and another on the SMD, now called Ahpun Topless.

Excellent news from PANR today. Be very clear on the following:

- Netherland Sewell is recognised globally by the O&G sector as one of the Top 3 or 4 Independent Experts. Do not allow anyone to belittle their bona fides or get away with "they would say that, wouldn't they....they're getting paid for their work by PANR so PANR can tell them what to say in the IER." That's complete nonsense. If Netherland Sewell is to maintain its professional reputation such that it's used by firms like Exxon then they don't conduct themselves in that manner. Ever. If any bears repeat that nonsense today, be sure to ridicule them publicly, and robustly.

- very simple maths might see the SP increase by >10% today. The addition of c.245mmbo P50 contingent resource at Kodiak adds approx 10% to the recoverable resources across Kodiak and Ahpun. It also increases PANR's contingent resource by 24%.

- It's becoming more and more obvious that the oil service firms are waiting for these 3 IERs to arrive prior to signing off on possible vendor finance. I suspect we'll hear more about that tomorrow. To me, that means these negotiations are dead serious.

- Recent descriptions of PANR's gas volumes support the contention that PANR is genuinely a cornerstone stakeholder in the supply of low CO2 gas for the proposed Alaska gas pipeline. Here's how I think of the base case. Even if PANR gives the gas away for free, it means there will be no requirement to drill and maintain 500 gas re-election wells. This could save PANR up to $5bn from its capex budget. This has the effect of improving the projects NAV, but even more importantly for the short term will improve the IRR such that external finance becomes easier to attract. Good stuff and keep an eye on any announcement from Governor Dunleavy in the next couple of months.

- really looking forward to the webinar tomorrow. To anyone who hasn't signed up for it, it's dead easy....takes less than 2 mins.

15:31

Neversatisfied - I understand the question you're posing in your post timed at 15:31. I *think* but am not certain, that when Rabito79 refers to "cut off" and "cut it" he's referring to *removing* (cutting?) data from certain calculations rather than cutting short on the timing of the actual flow test?

Perhaps Rabito79 could confirm what he meant? I, too, am having trouble understanding how 88E management could report such headline flow rates but only collect 25 stk barrels of oil over the whole exercise. It just leaves me asking more questions just like everyone else.

I hope and trust 88E management address this matter transparently in their next communications with the market because shareholders are entitled to a full explanation. Leaving all these question marks hanging over an important RNS relaying data from a flow test will only lead to damaged management credibility now and in the future.

These are legitimate questions being posed by olderwiser and Rabito79. If they weren't legitimate why the problem giving a definitive answer? And why has there been no response from 88E management to multiple requests for clarification?

08:57

Mystic - shows how poor your knowledge of 88E is. 2021 was the Merlin-1 well and 2022 was Merlin-2.

As for reading the RNSs....you should do so. You'll see an outrageous example of circular placings and invoicing as Dave Wall and Erik Opstad (ELKO) ripped the heart out of 88E. 88E shareholders should be livid.

Mystic - take a deep breath, forget about olderwiser/scot126 for a few minutes. Pretend my username is rasberryripple or some such, ok?

I say this gently but with a genuine message behind it. An hour or so ago, you showed all members of this forum how little you know about 88E. I'm not saying this to make fun of you, it's just a plain old fact. Look inside yourself and really ask if you know enough about 88E to be sharing your ill-informed thoughts on a public forum, never mind chastising so aggressively other posters who clearly know more than you about this specific subject matter.

Genuine question, Mystic. I would be profoundly embarrassed if I didn't know which 88E location was being drilled in 2021 and 2022. That's because I feel a genuine responsibility not to misinform anyone who reads my posts. For example, if/when I make a factual error I immediately and publicly withdraw the comment, apologise and correct the record. More That's how professionals in the market are trailed. So my question is, do you not have a similar approach to posting on a public forum? Or is it a case of who gives a f..k?.....so what if I publish errors of fact, that's their problem?

Everyone else - just Google Alex Delarge Steven Gallagher this weekend and ask yourself if there's the merest hint of another US OTC frenzy this time around? Hint - there's no evidence of it recurring.

01:53

*I don't want the unethical to succeed.

Please do some reading and research this weekend. And after having done so, ask yourself what's next for 88E? How are they going to pay for their commitments to the Namibian project, >$15m minimum in the next two years? If they're going to drill a lateral like PANR has, where are they going to get the US$25m to do that? /end

00:05

Hi taximan57 - you'll either decide to believe me or continue to stick your fingers in your ears, shouting, "Blah, blah, blah," repeatedly. Please listen to me when I say that when you *rightly* discuss deferring to the experts, olderwiser *is* exactly that - an expert in the O&G sector. He has *literally* spent decades assessing and working on O&G projects around the world.

It does not mean that he gets everything correct in the O&G space. But it does mean that when presented with the data he is far, far, far more qualified than you or I to interpret that data correctly.

Updating the comparative model for PANR and 88E at the close of play today. Once again, I assume the SMD flow test is also labelled a success.

88E SP = 0.35p

PANR SP = 32.1p

Cable = 1.263

Each downdip, lower classification 88E recoverable barrel in the ground is valued by the market at 21.3p

Each higher classification, updip PANR recoverable barrel in the ground is valued by the market at 13.6p

This value arbitrage is as stark as I have seen in 30 years in the markets. Despite what many on the forum would have you believe, this data-supported value differential will not remain into perpetuity. It never does.

MysticMacOffcl - please note that not one of the veterans on this forum has countered the explanation of a unique set of circumstances which saw 88E spike to fantastical heights in 2021 and 2022. These are the facts. A massive wave of US OTC punters WFH during the pandemic, fresh from the successful annihilation of a couple of hedge funds associated with GameStop and AMC, somehow alighted upon 88E in Q1'21.

Prime amongst them was a fellow called Steven Gallagher (aka Alex Delarge] who has subsequently been convicted for fraud in the US. He was a central player in various pump'n'dumps, of which 88E was one. It was mentioned specifically when the SEC described his criminal activities. Then along came well-meaning but atrociously over-confident Dunning-Kruger trophy-holders like Kate from NJ and FatMan and loads of others who created a frenzy around 88E's OTC listing.

To any members of this forum who thought Mystic was speaking with knowledge, I beseech you to open your mind this weekend, Google "Steven Gallagher Alex Delarge" and read about his conviction and court case. People like olderwiser/rabito and I were warning this forum that when the 88E SP spiked at US9.2c it was running so far ahead of its fundamentals it had a nose bleed. Still don't believe me? Ask Brombarb. A couple of months after the spike he finally admitted that he, too, had taken advantage of the irrational hype sparked by the US OTC punters and that he'd sold 88E shares into the spike.

I remember begging 88E UK and Ozzie shareholders to listen to Olderwiser/rabito79 and I at that time. Some people did listen and have contacted me subsequently. We saved some UK/Aussie 88E shareholders millions of pounds/dollars.

I want price discovery. I don't want the unethical

08:00

Hello again Stas20 - answering your points in turn.

- your post about SOI not being a primary determinant of value was complete gibberish. That you then elected to double down and defend it suggests a 4 year old's thinking rather than a 5 year old's. My bad.

- the goal of price discovery means, on this forum, doing plenty of fact-checking. Your content deserved both barrels. You appear to still be smarting about it. You and I could walk past each other in the street and we wouldn't know it. Let it go and maybe redirect your energy to learning more about investing, researching 88E and accepting that some people know more about specific subjects than others. That's life. I offer up as proof the fact that you wouldn't want me to handle you root canal treatment because I'm not a dentist, never have been a dentist and have never studied dentistry at any level.

- "whose", not the contraction "who's". That one's a freebie. You're welcome.

- character assessment of me.....whatever you say, man. For me it's all about facts, truth, maths, data, risk, probability, research, hard work.

Opinion: I agree with another poster earlier today. The market either has, or is in the process of, fully pricing in a successful flow test of the SMD. The market is looking around and seeing PANR's barrels trading at a discount to 88E's *and* it's also beginning to ask of 88E, "What's next?" I suspect sellers of 88E today have answered those questions.

Mystic guy username - the social media inspired tsunami of uninformed US OTC punters WFH during Covid was not me dreaming up some fantasy, lol. I'm simply recalling Kate from New Jersey, Fat Guy, Alex Delarge and the eponymous 88E Army and other accounts who described exactly why they and their thousands of followers had alighted on 88E, and spiked themselves to US 9.2c. Like many folk on this forum, I also remember the insane volume transacted during that time on the OTC. Sounds like you weren't around 88E during those times and yet you have such a strongly-held opinion?! Lol.

00:44

Nope, MadEnglish, I'm here for price discovery. No more, no less. So quit the personal abuse, read my comparative valuation work and tell the forum why an inferior 88E barrel in the ground deserves to be valued at double the value of a higher classification PANR barrel in the ground?

01:41

Nope, AusNSW, dead wrong. I do not possess an advisor's licence so I don't give advice. I share my research and valuation models. What people opt to do with that content is up to them. Quit with the revisionism and share your own valuation model of 88E with the forum. I'm looking forward to your contribution. Too lazy or incapable, which is it?

19:32

Perki123 - listen, I get it that you're trying to discredit me. I get it. For anyone who thinks as Perki123 does, take 2 minutes to click on Troughsnout's username and read his posts. Then do the same with my username, paying special attention to any of my posts which address or reply to the false claims of "Brevarthan" or "Troughsnout".

Troughsnout is Brevarthan's username on lse. Brevarthan has a substack where he's published research which is riddled with errors of fact and interpretation. His "research" has been rebutted directly by multiple industry professionals, including the Exec Chairman of PANR. Brevarthan has no operational O&G experience or technical qualifications. He claims the PANR directors are conspiring to mislead shareholders and the market. Brevarthan is wrong.

GrumpyScouser is correct when he describes the lead up to Troughsnout's one and only post on the 88E forum.

Whether 88E forum members choose to believe me or not is completely up to them. Unlike Brevarthan, when I was trained in the City I was told that my word is my bond. I don't lie or disseminate false and misleading information. I just don't do it, I never have. It's just not part of my make up, simple as that.

People like Brevarthan exist in the City. He thinks he's a professional but, in truth, he's simply a more educated version of some of the posters on this forum who try to entice unsophisticated ingenues into investing in 88E in order to deliver their trading profits. Brevarthan's ethics and morality are no different from the multiple posters on this forum who make up nonsense like "They've [88E] just proved a billion barrels" and "The company has confirmed the discovery is commercial" and "The SP is going to 4p by next week." They're all lies, it's just that Brevarthan writes superior prose than the other liars.

Opinion: the days of 2021 and 2022 are not going to be repeated for 88E this time around. There's just not the tsunami of uninformed US OTC punters working from home during the pandemic like there was back then. Face it, the market is valuing a superior PANR barrel at around half that of an inferior 88E barrel. If you think the market is going to repeat 2021/22 and stretch that comparable to an 88E barrel being worth 5x or 10x a PANR barrel then that's fine, knock yourself out. But be under no illusion, the fundamentals do not support such a valuation and you're simply playing a stockmarket game of 'pass the parcel', with no relationship to facts or data or the truth.

16:34

Hi BigBear2 - fair question but it has a really blunt and easy answer. Remember there are two parties to the contract. In PANR's case, Heights Capital would have to agree to the outstanding US$27m balance being paid off in a oner. Why would they do that? They'd be giving up for no consideration the optionality value within the structure of the CB.

How to think of the CB in the meantime? It's a tad simplistic but it works for me. In your model, swap the debt for equity and add around 100m shares to the SOI. Ok, it's a bit of extra dilution (about 10%) but put it in context.....the new acreage secured in December '23 increased PANR's recoverable resources by >30%!!

PANR's asset is looking more and more likely to be the second or third largest onshore conventional accumulation in US history. The market is slowly waking up to this. Do you think for a moment Governor Dunleavy wouldn't have been briefed by his Dept of Natural Resources prior to mentioning PANR when talking with Daniel Yergin recently. The Alaskan Dept of Natural Resources receives all of PANR's data and its internal team of geologists/geo-physicists/seismic engineers/reservoir engineers knows the North Slope and its oilfields at least as well as any other group of professionals. Hmmm......

16:31

Hi again Stas20 - just in case newcomers to the stockmarket read your earlier post and thought it was logical, I thought it best to post a Public Service Announcement.

You wrote: "The number of shares in circulation isn't the primary determinant of valuation; it's a function of Market Capitalisation and price."

In the most simple of terms, that sentence is complete gibberish. I beseech any newcomers to the stockmarket to delete any memories of Stas20's content this afternoon.

A company's market capitalisation is defined as the number of shares on issue multiplied by the share price. Thus, the number of shares is a primary determinant of a company's mkt cap, seeing as there are only two factors (numbers, in this case Share Price and No. of shares on issue) involved in the calculation.

Don't be like Stas20. This is the real world, not the jumbled fantasies of a 5 year old child.

16:31

Hi Stas20 - I have a comment. Do you think all listed companies own the exact same asset or operate the exact same business? Your question makes no intellectual sense whatsoever.

Here are some facts. Examining the formal guidance from the ***management of 88E*** and the management of PANR, the companies are guiding their shareholders (and the wider stockmarket) to a scenario where PANR's recoverable resource within the shared reservoirs is approx 10x the size of 88E's.

Too many on this forum live in cloud cuckoo land. These numbers aren't just plucked out of the ether. The management of *both* companies employ extensive analysis of seismic data to arrive at their formal volumetric guidance. PANR spent US$80m on their 3D seismic study. And before anyone here says PANR can make up their numbers from thin air, 88E have been anxious to get their hands on that same data for years.

Remember the two companies have entered into a data sharing agreement. Do you think for a moment 88E management would have done so if they didn't value the data from PANR's Talitha #A well?

C'mon forum members. Be honest. How many of you burst out laughing when you read the latest Next Investors article? Holy guacamole....it's central argument is written from the standpoint of a 5 year old. I'll summarise it: "If PANR's mkt cap reached X then 88E should reach that level too." For goodness sake, this is complete lunacy. For that argument to have any logic, it would mean that 88E has a 50:50 share of the reservoirs. It doesn't.....it has

On a like-for-like basis, using identical methodologies, an 88E barrel in the ground is currently valued at 22.3p v's a higher classification PANR barrel in the ground being valued at 12.7p.

This is as stark a pure value arbitrage as I have seen in my whole career.

If you are comfortable buying 88E shares at 0.365p right now, it is mathematically indisputable that you should be comfortable buying PANR up to 52p (v's 30p at time of writing).

Arb traders - where are you?!