RE: Nothing good happening here...16 Apr 2024 21:42
20:43
Indeed Triumph1. To help you out with this conundrum of yours, here's (hopefully) a decent summary of the PANR BoD's guidance on exactly this issue. This info was contained in recent RNSs and webinars, all freely available for you to access.
1) Vendor finance; quite a simple deal if executed. The vendor, described as a "large" OFS firm agrees to provide, for example in this post, drilling services (kit and personnel maybe?) to the amount of US$XXX. I think the latest guidance was that "negotiations are live". That's it.....reporting accurately. No exaggeration, no making stuff up, no gilding the lily...88E should try it some time. We were also informed about the prime motivation for retaining Lee Keeling and Cawley Gillespie to complete IERs on the Ahpun ZOI and Topset (Alkaid ZOI and SMD as was) rather than waiting for the end of Q2'24 for NSAI's report to be completed. It was due to the large OFS firm looking forward to receiving the independent conclusions of both firms before signing as deal (hopefully). Interestingly, I've done a bit of digging. Both PANR and 88E know of Lee Keeling as we've read the conclusions of their IERs previously. Cawley Gillespie is used by Hilcorp for some of their Alaskan work. Lee Keeling, of course, was originally referred to Great Bear by Halliburton. I'm sure you didn't know that, so have that one on me.
2) The guidance on the potential gas pipeline is as follows. Have a read of the RNS dated 28/3/24 first of all. To give you an idea of potential daily revenue *if* the gas is sold at that contract price, it's about $500k per day. Useful, eh? We were also told that PANR's gas is very low in CO2 which is an attractive/required characteristic for the pipeline. Timing? Exec Chairman thought there'd be news by the end of Q2'24. If you listen to a couple of interviews given by Gov Dunleavy in the last couple of weeks (CNBC and CERAWeek) he also talks about "in the next couple of months we'll hopefully have some news about the pipeline."
Structure. Happy to be corrected but here's my understanding from listening to the webinar. In return for PANR signing a long term (20 year?) take or pay contract, the SoA/AGDC/Alaskan utilicos will act as guarantor or arranger of a finance facility of *up to* $250m from which PANR may draw on to move the project forward. Please be aware (unlike Stas20) that formal guidance is for a maximum of $120m being required to arrive at Ahpun FID and to secure a self-financing model for Ahpun.
Remember all this can happen because PANR has already classed its Ahpun and Kodiak assets as ***commercial*** following the collection of data from 6 GB/PANR wells and other historic wells such as PS1. It took 14 years and hundreds of millions of dollars to reach this data threshold => declaring commerciality. I look forward to reading how 88E plans to continue that journey.
Let's diarise to review this strategy at the end of June, ok?
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