Member Info for Scot126

12:33

sharebel has encouraged forum members to read an article written and produced by Vox Markets. He provided a link to same. Buy/sell/hold 88E but please do not rely on that article as a source of information from which to make decisions. Regrettably, the article is littered with ***errors of fact***.

olderwiser had this legitimate criticism of the Vox article.

"The credibility of the VOX comes under serious doubt when they are willing write this:

"These results complement the deeper BFF reservoir's existing 250 mmboe contingent resource. In total, 88E is targeting 647 mmboe of prospective oil resources at the site."

That 647mmboe erroneously includes the Kuparuk (at 56mmbo) which did not even get drilled. The Vox headline volume also erroneously includes 341mmbo from the BFF which has already been assessed (see IER by NSAI) at an 88E share of 28mmbo plus 57mmboe NGLs plus gas 72mmboe => only 157 mmboe. Wowsers - the BFF has already shrunk by nearly half (by Netherland Sewell, Independent Expert), and even more if you rightly take the gas off - which would only sell for $6 per boe into the pipeline if it gets built.

88E already knows the 647mmboe has shrunk by 184mmbo in the BFF and a further 56mmbo in the Kuparuk => all up a material reduction of 240mmboe. Yet incredulously, VOX has the bare faced cheek to print a number they already know is factually incorrect."

As for this sentence: "88E is fully funded to develop Project Phoenix and its other assets." Hoo boy, what a whopper!

88E's cash at hand on 31/3/24 is US$11.22m. The balance of costs for this season’s operations in Alaska is US$11.6m. *If* Burgundy (25% W.I.) elects to walk away from Project Phoenix following the disappointing flow test results, 88E as the operator is obliged to pay the bills in full. 88E has stated the bills will be paid by the end of June ’24.

88E is also committed to pay US$900k to their Namibian partner by 1/6/24. Cost cutting has already commenced (88E’s COO is departing 29/4/24) but unless Burgundy pays some of the outstanding balance for the Hickory-1 flow tests, 88E will run out of cash at some point in June.

88E is definitively not "fully funded to develop Project Phoenix and its other assets." Yikes.

IMO 88E will need asset sales and/or an equity fundraise at a substantial discount to remain solvent after June '24. Let's see if the directors and executives support the company with their own cash whenever the next fundraise occurs? They haven't thus far....even supporting the November fundraise at 0.23p wasn't considered sufficiently attractive for them to invest a single Aussie dollar.

16:13

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. Pretty, pretty, pretty sure. It was at that precise moment that Geodes stopped commenting on valuations, sticking solely to his views on the geology.

You clearly didn't read my post correctly, taximan57. Why would I "correct" an expert in geology? I stated categorically that I didn't do that even once. Repeat, not once. My suggested corrections to his posts were limited *entirely* to *facts* about the investment cases.

I've suggested repeatedly you ignore my username, olderwiser's username when reading our content. Remove your misdirected anger and read the content as if it came from a new user called "Curtain1". Quit the eternal abuse and do more research.

05:23

taximan57 - I note you have kindly copied over a paragraph written by Geodes.

"Personally, I congratulate 88 Energy Ltd. They have made a significant discovery in the North Slope of Alaska and did so on a "shoe string Budget" and had to dilute the shareholders to do so. Now they have something to build on and attract financing or a buyer. Bottom line, they have discovered a Giant Field by the Globally accepted definition'."

Yes, PANR and 88E have indeed discovered a massive hydrocarbon accumulation in the Alaska North Slope, immediately adjacent to existing infrastructure (TAPS and Dalton Highway). The trouble is that the characteristics of these shared stacked reservoirs *vary considerably* depending on the location. Most especially, the depth of burial, the effects of Dmax calculations, lead to a pronounced effect on the producibility of the southern and southeastern parts of the acreage. Of course the measure of *producibility* has a huge bearing on the *commerciality* of the varied locations.

To all forum members. Please understand that 88E hasn't necessarily done anything wrong. They haven't drilled Hickory-1 badly. I have no reason to believe the flow tests weren't carried out professionally. Nope, all this data was decided millions of years ago. The data was collected and brought to the surface only a few days ago. When these formations were formed, the reservoirs had no idea lines would be drawn on a map in the 20th and 21st centuries which would have such decisive implications for a bunch of stockmarket investors and traders!

Could/should 88E have invested in 3D seismic earlier in the life of the project? Might 3D seismic have led them to make different decisions about where to apply 88E's capital? Maybe yes, maybe no. I urge forum members to listen to PANR's CEO in a recent Proactive interview, see link below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dts7k5oMR8k&t=144s

Have a listen between 2mins and 3mins 30seconds. For many years now, PANR has modelled the reservoirs' characteristics improving the further north and northwest the location. These stacked reservoirs in the northern and northwestern areas are also *shallower* than in the southern and southeastern areas. Imagine a stack of 5 dinner plates being tilted...the lower part of the stacked plates is 88E's acreage, the higher part of the stacked plates is PANR's acreage.

PANR clearly feared the negative effects of Dmax on the producibility of the reservoirs in the southern areas. So much so that PANR *has not included* in their own guidance of recoverable barrels the hydrocarbons assessed to be present from their Talitha #A location southwards to the boundary with 88E.

This strongly suggests to me that PANR's technical team will not have been overly surprised by the data collected during the two flow tests at Hickory-1. Is it making more sense now?

00:59

Hi Rpj8438 - I note your link to Geodes' reddit thread. I thought a bit of background would be useful.

Geodes has more knowledge about geology in his little finger than I could hope to learn in a lifetime. However, he self-admittedly no longer strays into commentary on valuations, including comparative valuations of PANR and 88E. He and I used to communicate. I enjoyed reading his geological commentary very much indeed. Sadly he made *many factual errors* about the investment cases of PANR and 88E.

Initially Geodes was happy enough to correct his *factual* errors when politely pointed out. However, over time he bristled at the *factual* corrections and then blocked me. I *never* questioned his geological commentary, solely his errors about the investment cases. Thereafter he ceased to comment on the financial implications for each company and limited his commentary to geological matters.

*My* opinion. Geodes has stated he is hugely under water on 88E. It happens. IMHO his commentary is, understandably, tainted by his desire to dig himself out of his 88E financial hole. Why not ask Geodes the following question: "Knowing what he knows now about the datasets from each company, which of 88E and PANR would he invest in today if only allowed one stock?’ Also, ask him for a data-supported justification for a downdip, lower classification 88E Phoenix recoverable barrel in the ground to be valued at a premium to an updip, higher classification PANR recoverable barrel in the ground?

in his latest reddit post I *think* I understand the point he is trying to make. In summary, publication of incomplete data leads to incomplete conclusions. Broadly, I acknowledge the point. *However* and specifically in the case of these two flow tests at Hickory-1, there are pertinent and fully applicable comparisons to 88E's data. I am referring to PANR's published data collected at Alkaid-1, Alkaid-2, Talitha #A and Theta West-1.

Put aside for a moment the actual results, look at the greater degree of data shared by PANR and compare it to the meagre data presented by 88E, thus far anyway. So, yes, Geodes urges folk to wait for further data and/or explanations on the "4 stk barrels in the tank" conundrum. But he, himself, was *not* able to come up with any irrefutable explanation for that precise piece of data.

Occam's razor requires that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex; or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities. It's not contentious, IMO, to suggest 88E's history shows a propensity to be promotional wherever possible. If there was positive data to be shared with the market, 88E would have done so. There were no corrections in the next three RNSs. Think about it.

Occam's razor is the problem-solving principle that recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements.

19:58

Hi Alex_F - I doubt very much that banditputin1 is a paid labourer. He's smarting at losing money on 88E and blames olderwiser, rabito79 and me for his losses rather than his own lack of research when he went long the stock. Have a look at his history of posting on 88E. He becomes a cynical supporter of 88E when he thinks, wrongly, that the peak oil rates reported following the two flow tests heralded good news about commerciality. There are even a couple of "BOOMs" in his posts, lol. Looking at his posting history, he doesn't appear to believe in research or analysis. He's a self-admitted "trader" - No reason to disbelieve him, I'd suggest.

I'll quickly dismiss the nonsense in his post timed at 19:14

- I don't tell fibs. I find publishing lies to secure a financial gain to be contemptible. Examining banditputin1's historical content it is clear he has no such reservations on that score.

- He informs us he "made his money" on 88E. Not if his posts on the 88E forum are to be believed. Looking at the timings of his posts v's newsflow v's SP, I reckon he's not being entirely truthful ...again.

- 10p placing on way, is it? Join the long list of folk who have said so since 2019. Note how he doesn't show his working for his so-called calculations.

- Financial Conduct Authority states Mangrove short position has been static since 11/9/23. Concrete evidence of banditputin1's non-existent relationship with the facts.

- sentence about how market values PANR. Let's ask him for some evidence? I earnestly believe banditputin1 does not possess the training to construct the industry accepted risked/unrisked valuation model for PANR to back up his evidence-less claims. Hey banditpuutin1 - post your model, would you please? Without doing the work, how can he possibly have arrived at such a conclusion?

- management mistakes? How many UK small cap management teams have discovered the second or third largest onshore conventional oil accumulation in US history? I'll take that mistake every day of the week and twice on Sundays!

Speaking of value, does anyone else find it mathematically preposterous that, using Friday's closing SPs, the market is valuing a downdip, lower classification 88E Phoenix recoverable barrel in the ground at 18.2p v's an updip, higher classification PANR recoverable barrel in the ground at 13.8p? Such irrational disparities in value do not continue into perpetuity. They never do.

21:38 & 21:22

Chrisev1 and MadEnglish - you have no basis on which to report me. I have not abused anyone. I do not disseminate false or misleading information. I provide links to sources and citations. I show my working on calculations.

Just because you don't enjoy reading certain posters' content does not mean that they are lying or being disruptive. You have not provided a single shred of evidence of wrongdoing on anyone's part.

Why not try fact-checking the content of those you seek to ban rather than reporting them.

19:37

Hi Toffers - just a friendly fyi about Alaskan production volumes and forecasts. Totally up to you if you wish to look into it further. When TAPS was built in the 1970s it was designed to be capable of transporting up to 2mmbopd. For the last few years, TAPS volume has averaged around the 450k bopd mark, give or take.

With Conoco's Willow and Santos' Pikka/Horseshoe due to come on to production in the next few years the daily volume going into TAPS is forecast to rise to 500-600mmbo. Complementing these new sources of volume are advances in engineering such that secondary and tertiary recoveries are improving in leaps and bounds. And of course there's the world record long laterals being drilled by The Beast which is adding its substantial shoulder to the wheel.

*If* the gas pipeline gets the go ahead that *may* add further life to oil production from the North Slope if marginal lobes of fields become commercial if the associated gas can be transported to market.

Then there's 88E's northern neighbour and it's development plans. As we know, Ahpun and Kodiak have been declared commercial by management and Schlumberger. *If* both of PANR's field go into full production, the maximum modelled daily production is 220k bopd.

Hope the above is of interest.

17:52

Ah SuperRoty - do you still stand by your frequent public allegations on social media that 88E's northern neighbour is a scam and that its management are crooks and dishonest? All without a scintilla of evidence of course.

Your conduct sickens me, SuperRoty. It's past time you took a good hard look at your behaviour.

17:36

Hi Rpj8438 - for the purposes of this exercise, let's stipulate the catalysts you list will be favourably received by the market. Fine.

Being realistic, it takes months for datarooms to be prepared and for potential partners to analyse the data prior to farm in negotiations commencing and being finalised. I don't think this is a contentious description, agreed?

The trouble is that 88E has got to fund itself in order to work towards delivering the catalysts you listed. Cash at hand on 31/3/24 was US$11.22m. The balance of costs for this season’s operations in Alaska is US$11.6m. *If* Burgundy (25% W.I.) elects to walk away from Project Phoenix following the disappointing flow test results, 88E as the operator is obliged to pay the bills in full. 88E has stated the bills will be paid by the end of June ’24.

88E is also committed to pay US$900k to their Namibian partner by 1/6/24. Cost cutting has already commenced (88E’s COO is departing 29/4/24) but unless Burgundy pays some of the outstanding balance for the Hickory-1 flow tests, 88E will run out of cash at some point in June.

What are 88E’s options? More asset sales? Perhaps. Far more likely IMO is an equity fundraise at a sufficiently large discount to attract investors who will have noted the market’s reaction to the underwhelming flow test results. Combine an equity fundraise with the proposed share consolidation (25.12bn SOI) and investors will be asking themselves, even if they believe the 88E assets are the best things since sliced bread, why would they not wait until the company is recapitalised before going long?

16:56

The thing is, banditputin1, not even your bezzie mates Mr Algo Rhythm and Mr Fib O'Nacci can do much about disappointing flow test results from Hickory-1.

Now then, being a self-admitted trader banditputin1, it is surely a priority to avoid being long a stock going into an equity fundraise or a small cap share consolidation. I can only imagine your trepidation as you examine 88E's cash position and see ***both*** an equity fundraise ***and*** a Board proposal for a share consolidation hurtling towards you at a rate of knots.

Being a generous chap, I thought I should examine 88E’s cash position for banditputin1 to review. Cash at hand on 31/3/24 is US$11.22m. The balance of costs for this season’s operations in Alaska is US$11.6m. *If* Burgundy (25% W.I.) elects to walk away from Project Phoenix following the disappointing flow test results, 88E as the operator is obliged to pay the bills in full. 88E has stated the bills will be paid by the end of June ’24.

88E is also committed to pay US$900k to their Namibian partner by 1/6/24. Cost cutting has already commenced (88E’s COO is departing 29/4/24) but unless Burgundy pays some of the outstanding balance for the Hickory-1 flow tests, 88E will run out of cash at some point in June.

What are 88E’s options? More asset sales? Perhaps. Far more likely IMO is an equity fundraise at a sufficiently large discount to attract investors who will have noted the market’s reaction to the underwhelming flow test results. Combine an equity fundraise with the proposed share consolidation (25.12bn SOI) and traders like banditputin1 will be asking themselves even if they believe the 88E assets are the best things since sliced bread, why would they not wait until the company is recapitalised before going long?

Trust the above saves you some money, banditputin1. Don’t come back bleating at me that I should have warned you about 88E running out of cash.

A final point. Note how banditputin1 has wisely decided not to repeat his made up gibberish about Mangrove increasing their short position in the face of incontestable proof from the FCA that the short position has remained static since 11/9/23.

Banditputin1 is what’s called a liar.

16:08

Hi Turnstone - delighted to be pointed towards a single sentence in OMJ's content concerning 88E which isn't lifted directly from 88E's last 4 RNSs? TIA

14:29 and 15:46

Jeepers, banditputin1, that's quite the word salad just to say that facts don't matter to you.

For any forum members who wish the definitive answer head to https://shorttracker.co.uk/ and type in "PANR" to the search box. Short tracker scrapes their info daily from the FCA short register.

If you wish to access the FCA short register itself then just google "FCA short positions excel" and then click on "short positions disclosed to us". You'll be able to see current short positions for Mangrove in PANR together with their history of declarations.

As you can see, Mangrove's 1.53% short position (approx 13.8m shares) has been static since 11/9/23.

Just like his KGB namesake, this makes banditputin1 a disseminator of disinformation. Or, if you prefer, a liar. Hopefully the real Putin will be defeated in Ukraine asap. I don't need to "hope" banditputin1 is proved wrong because that has already happened.

Don't be like banditputin1.

Infrequent posters may, understandably, wish to filter him because he's provided more than enough evidence his content is not truthful. I'll keep an eye on his p!sh and volunteer to highlight any of his future content which is pertinent. I doubt I'll ever need to do so, but I'll keep an open mind!

11.50

You're welcome, Ayecuramba. Glad you found it useful.

Question for you. Unless Burgundy pays some of the Hickory-1 costs from this season, it is calculated 88E will run out of cash some time in June '24. Even if you believe 88E's assets are the best thing since sliced bread, why would you not wait for the inevitable fundraise and probable share consolidation?

You must surely admit that your plan isn't rational. Thinking with your heart over your head?

19:34

Red card for banditputin1.

banditputin1 states Mangrove has increased its short. banditputin1 states Mangrove is continuing to increase its short. The FCA states otherwise, see link below.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B125SX82/

banditputin1 is lying. Don't be like banditputin1.

19:07

Simply not true, Prof Freud. I'm just a fundamental investor looking to build a consensus understanding of the facts of the investment case, leading to price discovery.

taximan57 - please consider how inappropriate it is to discuss another person's mental health. Let's keep it to facts of the investment case, there's a good chap. You're better than that.

Oh, and Mangrove last increased their short position on or around 11/9/23. At least put some effort into whatever it is you're trying to achieve here, banditputin1. If you don't up your game, you'll be laughed at. Unless you like that sort of thing?!

19:34

More disinformation by banditputin1. As every member of this forum is no doubt aware, PANR's acreage is solely located on State of Alaska land.

Not too good at this stuff, are you banditputin1

20:25

Dear, oh dear. banditputin1 isn't a proficient reader. During an exchange with Brom about the AGDC (google it BP1) and the proposed gas pipeline in Alaska, I wrote the following in response to Brom's fair question about likely legal challenges to the proposed gas pipeline: "The pipeline is designed to follow the path of TAPS within the disturbed corridor I can't help but be reasonably confident that sourcing the finance for the project will be the larger obstacle v's legal challenges."

As everyone apart from the liar, putinbandit1, can appreciate, the subject matter was the Alaskan pipeline.

Report card for our little KGB agent? D minus - must do better if he is to have any joy on this forum.

20:06

banditputin1 - firstly, welcome over from the 88E forum. A few points for you to consider:

1) You are wrong about your made up placing at 10p.

2) The PANR BoD has guided that the combined strategy of vendor finance and gas sales to the AGDC (leading to the SoA/AGDC/utilicos guaranteeing or arranging a facility of up to $250m in size) means that there *may* be no requirement for further dilution to the equity or to the asset. Guidance on timing for this strategy to be executed is "by the end of Q2'24." Why don't you diarise to look us up once that time has expired and see where we're at?

3) "And the well fields apparently have low pressure gradient so production will drop off fast. Expensive, expensive field to operate." Kindly provide a source document for this statement? You won't be able to because no such data exists. Isn't that right, banditputin1?

4) You asked what readers of your post thought I think you're smarting from losing money investing in PANR southern neighbour. I think you've typed out a word salad in your post timed at 20:06 and that it's just made up nonsense. I think it's funny that *you think* it has even the slightest possibility of instilling fear in forum members here. I also think that that you should do lots more reading and research about your chosen investments so that you become better informed about the *facts* of their investment cases.

Don't be like banditputin1.

19:11

Not quite, Brom. There is another scenario currently being explored where the construction of the pipeline is decoupled from the LNG export infrastructure. I *understand* the forecast cost of the gas pipeline construction is US$10-11bn, happy to be corrected. The prime motivation behind this scenario is simply to ensure Alaska's own residents and industry in the population centres of southcentral Alaska are supplied with sufficient gas because the current source, Cook Inlet, is running out of affordable gas production.

Politically, I can't help but feel it would be a source of embarrassment for a Republican administration in Alaska to import LNG in what is one of the world's truly prime locations for hydrocarbon production.

About a month or so ago Governor Dunleavy told CNBC and CERAWeek attendees during interviews to "watch this space over the next two months" in relation to the pipeline receiving the official go ahead.

I don't doubt for a second the green lobby will have something to say about the pipeline if the AGDC moves ahead with their plans. The pipeline is designed to follow the path of TAPS within the disturbed corridor I can't help but be reasonably confident that sourcing the finance for the project will be the larger obstacle v's legal challenges.