Member Info for Scot126

07:44

Hi Ramboraven - I can't help wondering if you genuinely believe you've come up with a sensible 'gotcha' question or whether you're just throwing any old nonsense at the wall, hoping it'll stick?

When looking at the relevance of reservoir characteristics, you first have to compare apples with apples. Thus, the question you should be posing is, e.g. will the SMD reservoir flow better at an updip location v's a downdip location *of the same reservoir*? Similarly, will the updip location of the SFS reservoir perform better than a downdip location of the *exact same reservoir*?

That you frame the question as you have displays your miscomprehension of the geology of this stacked play. Are you really trying to suggest that all these distinct reservoirs were formed at the same time with the same sands, organic matter, depositional direction, facies, etc and thus have *identical properties* apart from depth of deposition? Hint - if that's what you think then you ought not to be investing in the O&G sector.

Is there anybody on this forum who actually believes it's unethical to publish misinformation (often unscientific gibberish like in this case) in case of other forum members may be misled? Or is the attitude, "**** it, I'll post any old rubbish if it increases the chance of making a profit on my 88E trade. Who cares about the naive folk I suck in as long as I make money."

02:24

Less personal abuse and more fact-checking, Miner4. Be better.

Friday 15:29

The massive difference between the spike of 2021/22 and today is as follows:

1) 2021; the pandemic meant millions of US OTC punters were WFH. Many were euphoric after having broken a big hedge fund in the Battle of Gamestop!

2) Convicted fraudster Steven Gallagher (aka Alex Delarge) and other US social media "influencers" like Kate from Jersey and FatBloke5 alighted on 88E's US OTC listing, $eeenf, and filled the internet with made up gibberish about Project Peregrine. Naturally, these reprobates are long gone. Head over to 88E's twitter account and read the plaintive calls from US mom'n'pop investors who have lost their life savings or who think 88E management should be in jail.

Summary - there is zero evidence for a groundswell of rip-roaring energy surrounding 88E this time around. Look at this time last year for a more accurate reflection of the "punter" effect around 88E.

Read all the comments on this forum and elsewhere from folk who quote random SP numbers without even a nod to 88E management's guidance on recoverable resources. These people are just random number generators. They're playing a massive game of financial 'pass the parcel'. They're looking to draw in less sophisticated punter types to secure their own trading profits. And I promise you, once the buzz (such as it is in 2024) has dissipated, you won't see them ever again. There'll be no apologies from them when you work out that they were the ones selling to the less sophisticated whilst proclaiming "the herd [is] just about to arrive, moving the SP up to 4p just like it did in 2021."

Note how none of them highlight the billions of shares issued by 88E since then. Note how none of them talk about Project Peregrine now? Nope, they've Men in Blacked memory-erased their followers about that debacle. Note also when folk like Musk and shareguru22 are pulled up on questions of fact, they either refuse to engage or resort to name-calling. DYOR.

10:59

Yes, shareguru22, it is absolutely VITAL in tight/tightish reservoirs. Don't believe me or olderwiser, Google it yourself. We are not lying. This is established scientific modelling going back decades.

10:53 Friday

That's correct, GrumpyScouser.

For the avoidance of any doubt, and to prevent readers of this forum wailing in the future that no-one spelled it out to them, please note the following. 88E's portion of the stacked reservoirs it shares with Pantheon Resources (its neighbour immediately to the north of 88E's boundary) is ***downdip***. The corollary of that is that the *updip*, or higher quality, portion of these shared tight-ish reservoirs is owned by PANR, 88E's northern neighbour (NN).

This is not speculation. This is not a "he says, she says" situation. This is decades of established scientific understanding backed up by $80m invested by PANR (GB) in 3D seismic 10 years ago *and* the six wells drilled on its acreage, plus data collected from 88E's Hickory-1 drilled last year. That same 3D seismic data will shortly become available to the general public. The State of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources will probably publish the data on its website, is that correct Brom? Or you may have to apply to have it sent to you in person, I dunno?

We *do* know that various PANR webinars have confirmed explicitly the updip portion of the reservoirs is on its acreage. Fact.

We do know there is a data sharing agreement between 88E and PANR where the data from Talitha #A has been made available to 88E. If 88E had seen data which rebuts PANR's assertion about being updip of 88E then PANR's NOMAD would have compelled PANR to correct the record. Nothing. Crickets. QED = it is a *fact* that 88E's portion of the asset is downdip of PANR's.

Still want further proof? Access the 3D seismic and compare the burial depths north and south of the lease boundary. You don't have to believe the likes of me and olderwiser. Seek out the 3D seismic data yourself. Read both companies' RNSs/presentation where they list the depths of the reservoirs on their acreage. In other words, DYOR.

09:55 Friday

I beseech the forum to read this post and then read Olderwiser's responses throughout the day. Olderwiser is a former 88E shareholder and worked for decades in the O&G industry. Shareguru22, OTOH, wasn't aware until today that oil is lighter than water. Yet this prolific poster appears to believe his opinion carries equal weight to the likes of olderwiser. I urge genuine caution if relying on shareguru22's understanding of O&G companies, their geology, reservoir properties and their valuations.

- SG22 "As far as I know, if there's pool of oil underground, being in the lower dip is much better."

-scot126 "Exactly the opposite is the case. Refer olderwiser and the laws of physics."

- SG22 "If you was after as much water a possible, would you put your pump in the shallow end or deep end?"

- scot126 "If you was (hmmm....) seeking an answer to this question, then refer to olderwiser's answer about the composition of O&G reservoirs."

-SG22 "Idea? Let's extract before PANR, then all their oil in the updip will flow down into our lower dip as we extract. Woohoo."

- scot126 "Not an idea at all. It's a facile fantasy actually."

09:02

To the forum. Shareguru22 had me suspended today for the FACTUAL rebuttal below. Oh the irony of his content being permitted to remain on a public forum when he had to be informed today that oil is lighter than water!!! I feel for the moderators, I truly do. I 100% appreciate they're not experts in each market sector. But even they must surely think twice about allowing someone who didn't know that basic fact to remove accurate posts from someone with 30 years experience. Hey-ho! Let's get down to picking apart his nonsense below, shall we?!

09:02 Friday

Shareguru22 - you've outdone yourself this time. You've displayed your ignorance about how vertical test wells work *and* you've managed to undermine your own point about PANR's CB-related debt. Bravo, sir, bravo!

1) The impending flow test of two horizons at Hickory-1 will *not* be confirming any addition to the recoverable barrels of 371mmbo. This is because Hickory-1 is a vertical test well. Plus, fwiw, the SN isn't even testing the largest of the shared reservoirs by volume, the BFF Lower. Please have a read of olderwiser's volumetric work on SN's Project Phoenix. He's *far* more of an expert in the O&G field than I am and his recoverable resource is much less generous than mine. Think on that.

2) Even funnier is Shareguru22's nonsensical attempt to edit my model to highlight the CB within PANR's capital structure. Preposterously, he proceeds to deduct the outstanding amount (he has used $17m when it's actually $30m so he can't even get that simple *fact* right!!!) of the CB from the mkt cap, thus reducing the value of a PANR barrel in the ground ---> increasing the valuation disparity between a higher classification PANR barrel in the ground and a lower classification SN barrel in the ground.

Shareguru22 appears not to understand that Enterprise Value recognises debt and his method actually ***removes the CB debt***. You couldn't make it up! My model accounts for the remaining CB debt by adding 103m shares to PANR's SOI, issuing the shares at a 10% discount to the SP as per the terms of the CB.

Shareguru22 suffered an even greater embarrassment over on the other forum on Friday. Olderwiser had to explain to him that oil is lighter than water. Eek! And the moderators reckon his content is to be protected and mine deleted?

Moderators - please stop being intimidated by a troll who is spreading patently false and misleading information on your website. Contact me if you wish a full break down of the factual errors. I'm not being disruptive. I'm the one who is correcting his misinformation. You must surely be able to discern the difference????

Keep up with the insightful analysis, shareguru22. You're better at highlighting the irrational value disparity between the two companies than I am. Pip, pip!

08:47

Musk15 - thank you very much for your post. By posting this unscientific gibberish, "the down dip could create faster flow rates" you've revealed yourself to be comfortable disseminating false or misleading commentary in order to snag less sophisticated investors to deliver your trading profit.

On what planet will a 1000ft lower actual depth, in addition to another 1000ft of Dmax lead to better flow rates than the updip sections of these shared reservoirs? If you're going to lie, at least come up with something which doesn't go against the laws of physics, you scoundrel.

Yep, you're "here to make money". Your method involves posting gibberish to hoodwink the unsophisticated punter into FOMO when all you're doing is generating energy around the stock to deliver your trading profit. Shame on you.

See below my commentary on the events over at our southern neighbour, 88E.

"Casino punters and those playing a game of financial pass the parcel - no need to read further, except to remember the adage: "Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit."

For anyone with the slightest interest in the fundamentals, read on because it's fascinating and frightening in equal measure!

88E valuation.

1) Mkt cap at close today is £80.3m

2) Deduct value of Longhorn and Namibia (£8.7m) gives us £71.6m

3) Divide by Project Phoenix Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources ***assuming complete success of both flow tests at Hickory-1 in the next few weeks*** which is 371.3mmbo => mkt is valuing each Project Phoenix barrel in the ground at 19.3p.

Pantheon Resources Valuation

1) Mkt cap at close today is £242.8m

2) Add 103.5m shares to swap debt for equity at a 10% discount as per CB terms (+£26.8m) => Enterprise Value (sort of) = £270m

3) Divide by Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources which is 2.415bbo => 11.1p per barrel in the ground.

To repeat, on the concrete assumption that the impending two flow tests at Hickory-1 are a *complete success*, the market is valuing a lower quality downdip 88E barrel in the ground at 21p v's a higher quality updip PANR barrel of oil at 11.2p. On the fundamentals, that is madness. Stark, raving madness.

Put it another way perhaps?

*If* you genuinely believe 88E is fairly valued today, then the market ought to be valuing PANR at 45p. Right now, at time of writing. PANR closing price was 26p.

*If* you genuinely believe PANR is fairly valued today, then the market ought to value 88E ***after announcing two successful flow tests*** at 0.200p, v's current SP of 0.32p.

For both fundamental investors *and* casino punters: be under no illusion, 88E has now entered the speculative maelstrom of a gigantic game of pass the parcel. Look back at the spikes of 2021 and 2022 for your lesson on what happens when reality bites. It will be just as brutal this time around because if 88E is to drill another well in Alaska or Namibia *at any time in the future* it will have to raise fresh capital, and lots of it.

"Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows..." Lol

07:47

Musk15 - you're clearly unaware the Slope Fan System and Shelf Margin Deltaic reservoirs about to be tested at Hickory-1 are the exact same reservoirs encountered by PANR updip and to the north of 88E's acreage.

There is no scenario known to the O&G industry which envisages flow rates of the type suggested by Justice2u.

Or maybe you do know Justice2u is talking nonsense. But it's ethical to disseminate false and misleading information to snag a few punters into your narrative to deliver yourself a trading profit? Shameful behaviour.

07:10. NB NB NB

Justice2u - that is made up gibberish. Hickory-1 is a vertical test well. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that flow rates will be anything like you suggest.

Forum members should not listen to this fantastical b/s.

23:48

You stick to your cartoons and memes Adz, I'll stick to research and analysis. No need to repeat your advice, it's noted and rejected. If you don't wish to read it, then feel free to filter me.

Hi contango - I follow the logic of your post. I am not attempting to persuade anybody to do anything. I am, however, using this unfolding situation to educate an audience, new and old, about the PANR investment case and particularly the ridiculous comparative valuation disparity between these two unequal, in quantity and quality, owners of the same asset.

Again, feel free to filer me. I give you my word I won't be offended in the least.

23:26

Of course, Slawsofgold, I'd love it! I look forward to reading it.

23:15

chrisev1 - O&G sector professionals and equity analysts know that it's 100% relevant. Sticking your fingers in your ears and humming out loud does not change decades of scientific data collection. Be under no illusion, 88E is now in the "spike" and "P'n'D" zone.

See below my commentary on the events over at our southern neighbour, 88E.

"Casino punters and those playing a game of financial pass the parcel - no need to read further, except to remember the adage: "Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit."

For anyone with the slightest interest in the fundamentals, read on because it's fascinating and frightening in equal measure!

88E valuation.

1) Mkt cap at close today is £86.625m

2) Deduct value of Longhorn and Namibia (£8.7m) gives us £78m

3) Divide by Project Phoenix Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources ***assuming complete success of both flow tests at Hickory-1 in the next few weeks*** which is 371.3mmbo => mkt is valuing each Project Phoenix barrel in the ground at 21p.

Pantheon Resources Valuation

1) Mkt cap at close today is £242m

2) Add 103.5m shares to swap debt for equity at a 10% discount as per CB terms (+£26.8m) => Enterprise Value (sort of) = £268.8m

3) Divide by Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources which is 2.415bbo => 11.1p per barrel in the ground.

To repeat, on the concrete assumption that the impending two flow tests at Hickory-1 are a *complete success*, the market is valuing a lower quality downdip 88E barrel in the ground at 21p v's a higher quality updip PANR barrel of oil at 11.1p. On the fundamentals, that is madness. Stark, raving madness.

Put it another way perhaps?

*If* you genuinely believe 88E is fairly valued today, then the market ought to be valuing PANR at 54p. Right now, at time of writing.

*If* you genuinely believe PANR is fairly valued today, then the market ought to value 88E ***after announcing two successful flow tests*** at 0.202p, v's current SP of 0.35p.

For both fundamental investors *and* casino punters: be under no illusion, 88E has now entered the speculative maelstrom of a gigantic game of pass the parcel. Look back at the spikes of 2021 and 2022 for your lesson on what happens when reality bites. It will be just as brutal this time around because if 88E is to drill another well in Alaska or Namibia *at any time in the future* it will have to raise fresh capital, and lots of it.

"Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows..." Lol

Casino punters and those playing a game of financial pass the parcel - no need to read further, except to remember the adage: "Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit."

For anyone with the slightest interest in the fundamentals, read on because it's fascinating and frightening in equal measure!

88E valuation.

1) Mkt cap at close today is £86.625m

2) Deduct value of Longhorn and Namibia (£8.7m) gives us £78m

3) Divide by Project Phoenix Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources ***assuming complete success of both flow tests at Hickory-1 in the next few weeks*** which is 371.3mmbo => mkt is valuing each Project Phoenix barrel in the ground at 21p.

Pantheon Resources Valuation

1) Mkt cap at close today is £242m

2) Add 103.5m shares to swap debt for equity at a 10% discount as per CB terms (+£26.8m) => Enterprise Value (sort of) = £268.8m

3) Divide by Best Estimate (P50) recoverable resources which is 2.415bbo => 11.1p per barrel in the ground.

To repeat, on the concrete assumption that the impending two flow tests at Hickory-1 are a *complete success*, the market is valuing a lower quality downdip 88E barrel in the ground at 21p v's a higher quality updip PANR barrel of oil at 11.1p. On the fundamentals, that is madness. Stark, raving madness.

Put it another way perhaps?

*If* you genuinely believe 88E is fairly valued today, then the market ought to be valuing PANR at 54p. Right now, at time of writing.

*If* you genuinely believe PANR is fairly valued today, then the market ought to value 88E ***after announcing two successful flow tests*** at 0.202p, v's current SP of 0.35p.

For both fundamental investors *and* casino punters: be under no illusion, 88E has now entered the speculative maelstrom of a gigantic game of pass the parcel. Look back at the spikes of 2021 and 2022 for your lesson on what happens when reality bites. It will be just as brutal this time around because if 88E is to drill another well in Alaska or Namibia *at any time in the future* it will have to raise fresh capital, and lots of it.

"Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows..." Lol

So you were referring to medication for water retention, were you? Nonsense. We all know fine well what you were up to.

This type of behaviour is despicable and must stop immediately.

04:00

In what world is it appropriate to question someone's mental health on a public bulletin board, chrisev1? Is this an example of values your parents inculcated in you when bringing you up? That is a deeply inappropriate thing to say and you should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself.

Do better, chisev1.

23:58

Just not true, chrisev1. I realise you believe that if you post the allegation often enough it therefore must be true. However it's about price discovery. No more, no less. I have identified a truly gargantuan valuation differential between two listed companies who own unequal, in quantity and quality, portions of the exact same asset. The equity markets are mispricing these two stocks in a spectacular fashion. I am not exaggerating in the slightest by stating this is as clear a mispriced comparative value differential as I've seen in my 30 year career.

If 88E was the company which was massively undervalued, I give you my word I would be as outspoken as I am now arguing same. You still don't get it, even after months of explanation. For me, this is wholly about maths, risk/return, empirical facts, probability, accepted O&G science, data, published information, volumes, valuation, etc.

That you don't like the content does not make it inaccurate. The fact that not one of you, not even the super-informed Brom, has the gumption to fact-check me should be incredibly worrying for any 88E shareholder who is genuinely interested in the fundamentals. For those uninterested in the fundamentals and only here for a game of pass the parcel, I totally understand your antipathy towards me. Doesn't mean they have permission to dole out the personal abuse though.

21:27

Hi Boukephalas - you're quite correct to identify there are no plans for PANR to carry out field work in the guided future schedule. However, due to PANR's portion of the shared asset being updip of the SN's, PANR's Exec Chairman is accurate when he describes the two flow tests at Hickory-1 as a "free hit for PANR".

Here's why that's the case.

Stay tuned over the coming weeks and look out for the Hickory-1 flow test results. Of course a good result there [SN's Hickory-1] is an even better result here for PANR. This is due to the fact that PANR's portion of the shared reservoirs is *updip* of the SN's acreage. The effects of Dmax are anticipated to strongly favour the updip portions of these reservoirs, which are located on PANR's acreage. Of course there is a logarithmic effect on reservoir properties as Dmax delivers better perm and porosity as we move updip. Thus we can say with mathematical and statistical confidence that a good result for the SN at Hickory-1 will have a leveraged positive effect for PANR.

Pointedly, a poor result for the SN at Hickory-1 will not affect PANR's fundamentals. This is because the data collected at Talitha #A in 2022 will not change and it is *this* empirical data which forms the ***base case*** for PANR's development model in that boundary area, before moving north and northwest to improved updip locations.

Finance to drill is required and so stipulated. Thereafter I hope and trust the BoD will look to finally prove the producibility of the updated production + frack well design, trailed successfully by the re-entry of Alkaid-2 in October '23. It is crystal clear the equity market does not believe PANR's revised modelling of an IP30 of 3000-4000bopd (and average pdn of 2000bopd in the first 12 months of a pdn well) for an Ahpun Topset well. The best way to convince the market is to drill such a well and prove the science --> risked NAV increases significantly --> SP moves considerably higher --> capital from multiple sources and channels becomes far easier to attract. Seems like a no brainer to me.

Hope that makes sense?