The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The company will not do a buy back. A buy back is useful to enhance earnings per share. Until there are positive earnings it will not improve metrics. To effect a buy back you need liquidity, which would only be provided by disgruntled private investors selling at today's depressed prices, which hardly achieves a return objective. I would rather the company stewards the money on a more accountable business to get profits flowing and then return excess capital, if appropriate, via a tax efficient special distribution. The company is well aware that it needs to beat expectations in its May results with proper transparency. I am confident they will do both. Then they need to refresh their whole broker/pr team to re-energise the story, sort out their shareholder communications and do more to provide a credible board link to shareholders. Again I am confident this will happen Over-riding all this is what are the expectation for 2017 and 2018. Again, I am confident the operational corner has been turned. I still have residual concerns that the market shifts and advertising demand trends are significantly more volatile than management hopes and they will be in a state of catch up rather than being ahead of the game. Time will tell. That said, I do expect small profits to be made in 17 and the biggest question which will drive value is if ebitda can be heading back to £10m for 18. If progress towards that goal can be proven through 2 decent quarters - the current quarter is usually their second best - then a steady appreciation to beyond 50p is on the cards. If there is consolidation, I don't think the board will want to support a sale much below 75p and will not be bullied into a fire sale. The big institutions are patient and my understanding are in for the long haul and supportive. Share price weakness therefore is driven by pi's winding each other up and selling into an illiquid market. While no investor wants to be under water for years, I think direction of travel is positive. You only need to look at the take out price of Internetq relative to pre bid approach to figure out how wrong the market can be on AiM. Tosca are not fools.....
So if my maths is right after after 3q ebitda breakeven, they must have lost up to $4m in q4 off an annualised $40m lower cost base. Time for Tosca to effect their takeover and kick this board of slime-balls into touch. Their statements are random, inconsistent, untransparent and downright misleading. I see no visibility of 2017 revenue or earnings
At last! This should take us back into the mid 20s. If we can convert to 2m+ ebitda for q4 then a 10m forecast for 2017 becomes realistic and we will re-rate to the mid 30s by June. Beyond that lets see whether this will have been a transformational one off it the seeds sown for a business which will scale rapidly and start reaching for the heady heights of 3 years ago. I think the board deserve congratulations for getting a grip on the turnaround and let's hope loyal shareholders start getting their payback
Curious to see how the $60m goodwill hit was calculated- which acquisitions were written down. If they include PVMG/Rhythm, then I would argue, as direct beneficiaries, Kohil and Brian should refund the company/stand down given their conflicts. To my knowledge no goodwill calculation has been provided. All the negativity being said, there is no way these muppets could really have turned $200m into $10, let alone before considering their own capitalised development costs, so much as I really want to hold their feet the fire, this is a company with a book value of 45p/share post write offs and given deloittes will have assessed the carrying value of what's left careful I can't help concluding that however negative sentiment, a 16p share price is just daft.
Some numbers: Blinkx acquisitions: PVMG $36m - plenty of which went io BM's pocket, where he came from Burst $30m - listed Lyfe. n/a c $10m Grab n/a c$30m Zenovia n/a c$5m Adkarma $20m Rhythm $65m (where UKohli came from) All Media n/a c$5m i.e in the last 4 years c$200m spent on acquisitions - of which a share of $100m went into the pockets of 2 directors. Add in SC's share option pump and dump which gave him million sand we have 3 multi millionaires running the company having cashed out spending other people's money. $200m spent, value ex cash $10m. Incompetence or worse? Can we all email Shroder's address below and get an agenda sorted
Thank you. Anyone fancy putting together a family tree of businesses bought, their owners and interconnectivity with sc, bm and the rest. I cast no aspersions without analysis to support.
I emailed my email
I doubt kleinman will pass on third party details. Re the 793s, Can we as shareholders procure them? I thought it was the preserve of the company or the right of a shareholder requesting a s212 for the 793 to be included. Please let me know a dummy email and we can connect and kick off there
Ps I know kleinman at Sky. I have dealt with him professionally and his sources are always 100pc on the money. I guess since the board is saying nothing nor dealing, there is definitely something brewing. Incidentally, I believe the stock overhang has now been cleared and any sustained buying will see the mms short of stock.
Hi 2 questions - do you have the s793 analysis as part of the register and how do you suggest we connect off thread?
Hi 2 questions - do you have the s793 analysis as part of the register and how do you suggest we connect off thread?
Simple. We need an appointee on the board as a NED to hold the execs accountable to shareholders. Right now there isn't one director representing shareholders as far as I can see , not one with any AiM experience, not one with any equity of note. Not a single broker writes research, not a single institution is buying shares. In short the board makes its own appointments eg chairman, sets its own outrageous remuneration, buys companies from mates(?) at over valuations while spinning a line about jam tomorrow while missing every target and contradicting its strategy and statements every period - inflection point,. Profit in 6 months etc.... I had hoped tosca and rg would take board roles and shape the future but for their own reasons they chose not to be insiders so have not. For the last 10 days a very large position is being unwound - I have been able to buy massive amounts of shares this week well inside the spread - hence the price drop - which is totally overdone and will reverse when the position is cleared. And yet they are consulted on mergers according to Sky (sky are usually well informed), a luxury not available to the rest of us. It may be I do the board a disservice and they are doing a great job in transformation but we don't know and that's the problem. Do we have a well meaning board who will turn this into a great company or a bunch of chancers raping and pillaging the company in front of a bunch of apathetic mug shareholders. So, yes there is a lot to do. Approach the company constructively for a NED role and if the company doesn't want to play ball, see if there is enough support to requisition an Egm and get shareholders to vote it through. If the intention is to be constructive then the board should welcome if. If not then it tells a sorry tail. As I said, I am credible and would put myself forward but want to see if there is strong retail support
Well I am prepared to get off my Arse to make stuff happen. I have enough of a personal reputation to be taken seriously but I need to know how much backing there is out there. I also know my s&&t around the City so can achieve results. If there are shareholders here who own in excess of 100,000 shares, please signify as much and your desire to do follow me and I will set out next steps
How do regular posters here seeking to nominate one of their number as a non Exec board representative. Since we have no institutions acting for the common cause, no research in the market, it's high time that the disproportionate retail investors get off their arses. Views as to desirability? Nominees? Apathy? Effort to organise and make happen?
At least they also have cash - $65m. Maybe the synergies do put the whole lot into accelerated profit. It's funny how all these ad tech businesses seem to be owned/run by foreign sounding gentlemen who are good at overpaying for each others' businesses with investors' money and are now owned by activists/hedge funds who want to see a return. At least on Nasdaq at double the size there will be more liquidity in the stock. Must admit no longer have a clue what's going on at Blinkxy.I am still amazed that BM can make a profit statement one RNS and then duck the question at the next one, albeit I did say at the time that if they were in discussions then he couldn't make a profit forecast for fear of the implications under the Takeover Code. That at least provides reassurance that guidance of 6-12 months to breakeven still holds. Will be an interesting ride. Could be a multibagger from here or a slow burn as a combined $150m of cash dribbles away....time will tell. Our hedgies will however be on the case so holding seems like a rationale outcome for now
YuMe: Activists At The Gate Nov. 25, 2015 4:18 PM ET | 2 comments | About: YuMe, Inc. (YUME) Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...) Summary A couple of activist investors now own over 15% of the company. They've been aggressively adding to their positions. The company still has plenty of upside on the back of mobile ad growth. Vertex Capital and AVI Partners have increased their stakes in YuMe (NYSE: YUME). Today, Vertex owns 7.2 percent of the multi-screen video advertising company while AVI maintains 8.1 percent of the business. So what does this news mean for YuMe and its shareholders? Despite the recent moves from Vertex and AVI, YuMe's stock price has plummeted since the end of June. At the time, YuMe's stock price was around $5.50 - the price is now closer to $3 a share. Although Vertex and AVI have upped their stakes in YuMe, other investors are reluctant to commit any capital to the company. (click to enlarge) yume stock Are investors shying away from YuMe? 2015 has been an up-and-down year for many companies, and YuMe is no exception - consider some of mixed bag of AVI's recent moves involving YuMe: AVI disclosed a 5.5 percent "active" stake in YuMe on Jan. 15 - the investment firm increased its stake to 8.1 percent in February and 9.1 percent in March. In addition, AVI announced it nominated two candidates to YuMe's board of directors in March but withdrew the nomination notice in April. However, AVI said it expected one of its directors to join YuMe's board at a later date. On July 21, AVI upped its ownership to 10.8 percent at an average cost of $5.24 per share. On Oct. 5, YuMe added Derek Harrar, the former senior vice president and general manager of video services at Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) (NASDAQ:CMCSK), as AVI's representative on its board. In addition, let's consider Vertex's moves relating to its stake in YuMe: On Oct. 7, Vertex disclosed a 5.3 percent "active" stake in YuMe and said the business was materially undervalued. Vertex also recommended the company should explore strategic alternatives at this time. Vertex this month increased its ownership to 7.2 percent and asked the company's board to commit to a $35 million share buyback at $3.50 per share. This buyback could result in EBITDA accretion of greater than 40 percent on a per-share basis, according to Vertex. YuMe meanwhile has suffered financial losses over the past year. In the third quarter of 2015, YuMe recorded: Revenue of $38.9 million, compared to $43.0 million in the third quarter of 2014. Adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.8 million, compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.4 million in Q3 2014. Net loss of $6.5 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.0 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, in Q3 2014. YuMe may require a strategic shakeup if it hopes to avoid ongoing financi
You are correct. 30% = MANDATORY bid
Why would company but their own shares, when BM and directors would be equity owners in a taken private vehicle and retain all the cash therein for their subsequent benefit!
...always been close if not a concert party. If the plan is to take private as joint offerors, they are hamstrung by needing to offer not less than the highest paid by RG in the last 12m - high 40s? While Tosca are in the mid 30s. I cannot believe RG is simply bailing for a loss just when the company finally seems to be moving in the right direction, As such, more likely is that he has an understanding with Tosca, who when they go through 30% and make their mandatory Rule 9 bid they can do so at 40p and not 50p. If this thesis holds true, expect Tosca to raise up to 29.99% (they may nearly be there since there is a mismatch between the 12m sold by RG and the 5m announced as bought by Tosca) and then wham............probably at or around the time of Q3 results, with a final direct purchase from RG at 40p kicking off the bid.
One very subtle point I picked up from the q&a yesterday was how Brian avoided answering the citi analyst question on date of return to profitability, particularly given the 6-12 months stated in a previous Rns. While this could just be conservatism it could also be a clear signal that they wish to avoid a forward looking statement which would be deemed a profit forecast and so need reporting on in a takeover bid. Along with the kitchen sinking of the balance sheet, the next few months could get very interesting!