RE: Delisting from aim.4 Feb 2025 08:30
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Trinityman
Posted in: SNG
Posts: 480
Price: 190.00
No Opinion
Exit Strategy25 Jan 2021 13:40
As SNG continues to be de-risked, the question now changes from, ‘Will I make any money from this?’ to, ‘How much money can I make from this?’
At this point investors try and work out an exit point, one of the trickiest parts of an investment strategy. Some will sell when a certain price is reached, others when they hit a pre-determined percentage point.
In this case, it is impossible for individual retail investors like us to accurately price such a unique treatment. A good starting point would be to return to the original investor presention given by CEO Richard Marsden back in April 2016, the link at the end will take you there.
At 13.30 minutes RM takes investors through typical examples of takeovers at various stages of development and offers an example of how much a company can be bought out for when they own a novel post-approval drug.
The baseline figure quoted is $8 billion.
Given SNG has 200 million shares in issue this gives us a starting figure of $40 = roughly £29.
However, this figure is not based on a drug that can play a major role in bringing a global pandemic under control, it merely exists as a baseline for you to come to a personal decision on how to time your exit.
Many investors love a takeover, as the decision is then taken out of their hands, but RM has used the phrase, ‘major or significant partner’ on more than one occasion. The longer the BOD can keep control, the higher the share price will rise. Always remember the true value of this share is in the COPD element, covid has simply accelerated progress.
How the income will be split in a Joint venture remains to be seen, but as individual governments continue to lose the fight against covid and the World Health Organisation fail to deliver a co-ordinated global stategy, the value of this interferon-based treatment grows in value.
Major pharma don’t usually play fair when dealing with junior pharmas, as they know they always run short of cash in the end, but in this case Synairgen have the advantage, as democratic governments continue to wrestle with uniquely difficult political and economic decisions.
I have repeatedly said many times on here, ‘Trust in the science, trust in the product and trust in the management’. They are trustworthy, reliable and honest and to date have delivered on their promise to ‘deliver maximum shareholder value’. They have my 100% trust and at this critical stage they should also have yours, so don’t listen to ‘the undesirables’ that will return this board over the coming weeks, hoping to prise away your shares.
FWIW I’m keeping it simple and running with £29 – JV 50/50 = £14.50 for now. Obviously SNG is worth more than this in the grand scheme of things, but this is AIM so we can’t be too greedy, who wouldn’t be happy with a 7 bagger from here?
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