Member Info for scaredycat

alot easier stocks to short given the build - pmo, rbl , uganda cash, CMD and day to day production solid +

Trump may emerge with a 'proven' vaccine in the next few weeks.
Doomsday planes have set off and price of oil might rise on heightened risks?
The next few weeks will be choppy imo

'60 per cent of 2H 2020 sales revenue hedged with a floor of $57/bbl; 48 per cent of 2021 hedged with a floor of $51/bbl'
I agree. Cashflow and servicing debt NOT an issue this year or next and weathering the storm imo.
This will be underpinned by Rahul's expertise delivering low/ lower cost production bridging to CMD strategy.
So, CMD, debt restructuring/ RBL, $575m Uganda cash bridging to an 'economic' Kenya investment looking out 25 years.

Scrodinger, nice post.

'an eye on Carbon footprints'
Yes. The EU just introduced carbon tagets and a means to tax the movement of goods across borders based on their carbon footprint. I wonder how the carbon footprint of 30 miles of fuel compares with an electric battery?

I guess so. Although its mainly them walking the price up and down on 0.1% volume..

Anyone know why shares in issue is now 1412m. Was 1354m last time I looked.

JB's move now

'When it's in the 7s, and 6s and it's held there for ages. '
You might be right. Someone bought JB 60.7% for 10p average. Think you are only referencing PIs and day traders.
Any average under 10p will come good imo

doubled up on that ;-)

It was the div that brought me in in the 1st place and like many, underwater with no div income.
Gladstone have done very well shorting this and have time on their side so unlikely to exit anytime soon. Unless there is a bid..

Thank you Slift, very useful.

Onlyprofit. TLW will survive imo. Has sustainable free cashflow (subject to price of oil).
2021 $300m convertible bonds covered by Uganda cash.
2022 $650m senior notes will be on the radar at Decembers capital markets day with the Kenya investment end of 2021 and a sovereign interest for the next 25 to 28 years.

Nothing certain of course but this current 2nd CV phase is revenue hedged so not a cliff edge.

SP will spike but generally being controlled by the short interest imo

'Far more likely the Hospital was built as more of a stunt to scare the world!'
Could be like the imitation tanks in WW2 used to confuse the enemy. Did the middle east get it wrong loading costs into hospitals before going bust..nmc? Dirty old business capital markets methinks

Slarti, could just as easily be paid journo's working to support the BoD view

'Do seasoned pros who know better than us actually frequent the BBs?'
Yes. When a material interest wants to influence an outcome, the BBs are filled with pro campaign narratives..

'Cash is King.'
Agree. Just watch when $500m UG cash hits the bank..

About Gary Jennison, linked in
'Experienced Financial Services CEO with a strong track record of turning around poorly-performing businesses and driving high growth once a solid IT & operations platform has been established. Now looking to add to non-executive portfolio to help the CEO deliver the necessary change'
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/gary-jennison-28396a12?challengeId=AQF0sz6tUh1CqQAAAXS8iw9XA7MtnZnnFf86RTSE7yLTbOvQv4qRTpqorFZ7TFNwlt3jNGsl0BD_mnP3bqbIS0CU1oZMinK2Ew&submissionId=861081d4-f081-3716-8b06-104d4bcd2702

thats my thinking too. ie the september rbl review is supporting the longer term positioning and TLW now has 1st refusal from Kenya so putting value back on the horizon

Guessing the short term price can go below 10p because JBs buyer probably sold a % to retail above 10p whilst JB was campaigning. They would still have to return to the average or lose out which is hard to see (FCA?)

looks firm to me.. JB sold his 60.7% for around 10p. Think he will have to pay 20p at least for 20% from here?

The moral of the fool article is dont bother trying to trade this. Buy when its at all time lows. If you miss the lows 1st time round you get 3 or 4 more chances.

Do the BoD have the edge over JB? Sentiment seems to be moving in their direction reading the BB vs prior weeks?
Topped up late Friday hoping whoever bought 60.7% [10p?] from JB will not sell at a loss

The BoDs social media rns said
Further, RGL will in any event require the prior approval of the FCA to acquire 20% or more of Amigo shares and thereby become a "controller" of a regulated entity. There is no guarantee either that this further approval will be granted. This will limit any share purchase by RGL up to 20%. In the absence of the required prior approval from the FCA, execution of the irrevocable instruction would result in RGL committing a criminal offence when its shareholding exceeds 20%.