Member Info for scaredycat

If TLW deliver another 'portfolio' item or Moodys decide to rearte when the $500m is in the bank, the shorts will have to cover or capitulate. I am holding. The SP could explode.

I'd guess the shorts are stuck. Saw yesterday how the SP spikes just on 0.2% @24p.

Thanks OAC. That seems to explain it.

Strange movement on the short interest tracker over night.
Was reporting 7.83% last night I think.
Whitebox the increase but doesnt really add up. Probably me.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Added a few @ 20.6
Would like to see shorts closing. What are they hoping for?
This management have said what they are going to do and they are doing it.

anyone got thoughts what this RNS does to our credit rating. Surely we tick all the boxes to rerate?

will take a few days for the shorts who hedged their debt to unwind. Think $1Bn cash covers any debt repayments out to 2024 RBL.
And the 2022 debt can be rolled back for a higher coupon.
TLW further 'out of the woods' imo
Roll on CMD and Jan redetermination

'With all the Government-related conditions to closing having been satisfied, Tullow expects the transaction to close in the coming days after completing certain customary pre-closing steps with Total. Tullow will provide a further update once the transaction has closed and funds have been received. On closing, Tullow will receive $500 million consideration and a further $75 million when a Final Investment Decision is taken on the development project. In addition, Tullow is entitled to receive contingent payments linked to the oil price payable after production commences.'

2020 free cash flow forecast to break even at the current forward curve subject to year-end working capital movements

This golden goose will keep laying from here on imo
'Proceeds of $500 million from Uganda transaction completion expected before year-end; portfolio sales still targeted to deliver proceeds of over $1 billion in aggregate albeit in a challenging external environment for asset sales and farm downs

Organisational restructuring well advanced and forecast to deliver cash savings of over $350 million over three years, significantly in excess of the previous target of $200 million. This will deliver annual sustainable cash savings of over $125 million from 2021.'

...and the recent RBL determination gives TLW an additional $500m headroom followed by CMD next month to incorporate the outcome of the revised business plans.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/half-year-results-opcmack7obmwjde.html

due at any time now. Should open higher as % shorts will want to close quickly imo

The article is important in an African context!
I will be watching next week for brent derivatives unwinding and rolling over to 2021 calendar.
Going to be some volatility but $500m in the bank will send the SP in one direction. Risky to be out..

The interview article refers recent events, eg,
'The September 11 visit of our CEO Patrick Pouyanne allowed all parties to reach an agreement, which was a prerequisite for the Final Investment Decision (FID), which will need the HGA in Uganda, and the back in, which is basically a document that describes the way Uganda National Oil Company (Unoc) joins the partnership.'

So what SP when the $500m is in the bank next week.

23rd has been mentioned but it could be monday morning or anytime from now?

Thanks Nickel, unfortunately just pocket money as it turned out. Pure chance and no research LoL

Canary/ Super
Yes there is lots of complexity so just back of a napkin.
I simplified eg by making inflation = growth otherwise you adjust for growth in the nominator and denominator for example
Lots of scenarios...
Kenya is 28 year investment
Current management have done everything they gave guidance on including revenue hedges
$500m in the bank next week or so
Reserves and RBL
Pay higher coupon to roll back future debt

Reference to central bankers is tongue in cheek that printing money and low interest rates is going to create value this time next year and markets will continue to soak up debt to balance. EU already introduced carbon footprint tax to raise revenues because printing money cant go on. Maybe there will be digitally enhanced small carbon capture product developments for vehicles etc... Sure greening will continue to grow but oil price isnt going to stay low. Long term price $60 is 25% discount to the IMF previous guidance.

The current mess in markets is still negotiating WTO, GATTS

Cash flow from producing assets is king imo FCF even better

'Tlw is not only dependent on the oil price for level of profit - its also dependent on Poo for survival. '
Yes I agree. Its an oil company.
Ghana, Uganda, Kenya economies etc are all highly dependent on oil. Interest rates in these markets are higher than in say the EU or US.
TLW free cash flow $100m pa is worth $3.3Bn @3% discount rate. $20Bn if you are a central banker printing money @0.5% discount rate.

'Cash payments of US$500 million on deal completion and US$75 million at Final Investment Decision (FID)'
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1387259

Harrykrishna, doesnt really matter if you accumulate.
Maybe we get the chance to double up at 8? Otherwise my mantra is '80p'

..someone sold another 1m (1,056,477)
trade reported at 17.38.57

'suppose the little matter of 2.8bln debt would'nt have anything to do with it?'
Of course debt matters, but no issues serving it or meeting repayment out to 2024 imo. The long term price of oil back to $80 or $100 and the balance sheet looks different. CMD inthe end clarifies both accounting and capital structures