Member Info for scaredycat

Total voting rights..is that redundancies and cashing in employee share scheme or shorts closing?

Total happy at $40 oil. TLW look safe for along while yet and under rated imo.

..8.42%..

I guess if you add the 300k buy at 4.29 you get the 0.1% short reduction we will see reported on Monday on short interest tracker...
Crikey, only another 8.51% to go.

those hedges holding up the SP imo

been lots of dips. I got TLW in every nook and cranny :-)

Credit rerating would help the debt hedges close I suppose.
When the $500m is in the bank, imagine rating will be reviewed for CMD on Nov 25

Short and medium term oil price hedged
Production c.75m bpd on plan
$500m cash about to land
$500m of liquidity headroom
CMD Nov 25
FCF breakeven full year
Jan voluntary redetermination
gla

ticking up $41.78. Doji star reversal on the 1 hour..
Hope it keeps going and those 'dirty rotten scoundrels' dont reopen their shorts ;-)
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

Could also see a preliminary comment about CMD and how the $500m has improved liquidity

Even if the $500m is argued to be in the SP, Moodys havent rerated yet based on their guidance and the $500m. So this must be another event that will bring in more buyers when this happens imo?

Thanks Davstock.
International tax agreements are thorny and many disputes are about harmonisation with global policies versus local interests. In my view, any cash settlement at the start is like putting the cart before the horse . I guess TLW has a tax capital loss after the $575m anyway.
A nominal payment to the Gov is actually a win for TLW given prospects now improved and liquidity box ticking.

I guess Slifts point is the Goliathberg-Voltzberg North drill can add to the assets. Its what TLW was good at, so with production cost and output under control, Rahul been brought in to find the optimal path

the more I look at the 1 minute chart since 3.30pm, the more it looks like vampire!

'Does anyone know how difficult would it be for TLW to open a new hedge, say for 10% of production?'
The CFO will be ready with treasury just to catch that opportunity. Is standard practice in eell run business.

'we will still have 500 millions from undrawn facilities of RBL'
...and so the 1st 'debt milestone' imo is the 2024 RBL or funding Kenya end of 2021

Hi Scrodinger.
That makes sense. If all those things happen, and it seems they will as the management team have not deviated from guidance, then I expect north of 80p in Q1 2021.
AIMO

H I Win, I agree zero. But the market value was measured at write down. Now add $500m or 35p a share to the MV.

The MV should be higher because the future cash flows from production etc are more than the net asset/net liabilities in the balance sheet. The SP/ MV is distorted because there is >8% short interest . Remove the short interest and the SP will increase 35p imo

The UG balance sheet is 'historic cost accounting' ie the cash has been spent.
The $500m is current cash to be used as TLW plans going forward.
The current value of TLW must have increased $500m or at least should when it hits the bank?

The historic cost was 'lost' when the SP dropped to current levels ie no return on investment = MV, then add $500m

'rerate'