Member Info for SB_1964

Farcical gibberish

If you think about it… if you are one and trade/buy/sell you’re breaking the law

If you are one and pass on information to
others as one, you’re breaking the law, as are the muppets who believed you and subsequently bought/sold

This is the stuff of nonsense and best avoided.

Can we get back to commercial discussion please.. this cr4p reads like the Beano..

.. agreed Bear - it’s all to play for and firming up well in all regards (geopolitics, asset values, markets, security etc)

The wait is to be expected, and ‘no news is no bad news’ as far as I’m concerned…

We would like something via RNS tho, and I believe this won’t be too far away

You must come from Bath Aqua Sulis

I remain hugely positive on this by the way.. it will explode when we join the remaining dots

Your disappointment is understandable rylidan..

It stems from grossly unrealistic aspirations in late ‘22 from the Kefi senior team frankly.

I’m quite annoyed by this, because it was amateurish and commercially dumb/naive - these guys have been around a long time and should have known better..

Harry can perhaps be forgiven for not fully understanding how these funding deals come together (and how long they can take to complete) but any decent CFO would be all over this, and reign in the stupid comments around EOY ‘22 close outs etc.. that was pure farce, as we are all finding out now..

I suspect we will get something meaningful next week via RNS, as there will be some way to alert the market to ‘progress’ without compromising sensitivities of a deal yet to be done.

Not straightforward to say what the next meaningful/allowable update (re TKGM) will be…

Unlikely we will get the “all conditions precedent satisfied” RNS, as that relates to an ongoing process and would be ‘sensitive’ …

My guess (re Ethiopia) is the next RNS will relate to a full/final offer of facilities from the senior lenders (banks) - hence the radio silence..

There is some comfort to be had from not hearing much, but there undoubtedly will be a LOT going on.. and positive stuff

17.5m will put you in the multi club Mike.. good skills IMHO

As a sub-note, bear in mind that every member of the consortium will have their own respective lawyers working on the docs.. banks, PE investors, Gov, Kefi etc… so a myriad of advisors all keen to show that they are indeed awake, paying attention and earning their fees..

It is for the banks (senior lenders) to allow (or not) any amendments to the final docs, as they run the show…

Typically they will allow minor, non fundamental changes, and other members of the consortium are not stupid enough to request major changes at this late stage.

All being well.. mid April would seem to be achievable IMHO

Simms45

Once all the CP’s are satisfied it would be pretty unusual for a bank credit team to invent further conditionality, other that subsequent (Conditions Subsequent - CS) which are to be satisfied post completion to maintain covenants, ie they don’t hold the deal closure up.

From here it’s

1) Satisfy all Cp’s..

2) Circulate the Master Finance Agreement (MFA) ie Definitive Docs

3) Get the lawyers on all sides in agreement.

4) Obtain authorised signatures

5) Close the Deal

6) Have one almighty pi55 up….

GLA

Simms45

Conditions Precedent have been in play (as part of the bank’s Indication of Terms (IOT) for a month or so, and are being worked through - hence the recent consortium meeting in Addis. A subsequent meeting then took place in London.

So, we can deduce that the IOT was board ratified by the bank, therefore once the CP’s are satisfied ‘credit’ will be relatively quick (unlike everything else) - this won’t be a month in credit, more like a week max.

Typically, the definitive documents (Master Finance Agreements) will come out from the senior lenders lawyers, as they are running the finance show. They will then do the rounds across the consortium and there will be many all-party lawyer conference calls over the course of a fortnight, typically.

So, once the CP’s are all boxed off, I think docs will flow within a week or two, and then there will be a similar timeframe prior to signing thereof, for amendments to be proposed and either agreed/denied by the senior lenders…

The painstaking bit is now IMHO.

‘Driving the digger..’ - ‘is the ANS money in yet..’

We do have some repetitive gerbils here

Thanks and agreed fjones40..

Mid April.

How on earth the Kefi senior team thought they’d get all of what is now being undertaken, concluded prior to Y/E 2022 is totally beyond me. That’s nuts.

Bordering on foolish, as is the use of the word imminent, when it clearly was not at the time . A little irresponsibly really, when you’re playing with decent people’s savings.

That said, we are now in a realistic process, and (given what’s happened over the past few weeks) this looks like a 5-6 week end game for TKGM close

IMHO

Thanks again Rob..

Having gone through everything received, I believe that (for the first time in my view) all Kefi timelines and aspirations are broadly accurate and achievable as clearly set out.

In other words, this 100% feels like a realistic, grown ups deal about to get done.

The language being used and the process to definitive agreement signing set out is both on point and logically progressive to a defined outcome in a real world time frame.

Nothing negative, wooly or (importantly) unrealistic here whatsoever.

The process is essentially like walking down a long corridor shutting the doors on both sides as you go.. you cannot do this any other way.

When you get to the end of the corridor, with all doors behind you closed, there’s one final door to open which takes you into a whole new reality going forward.

By my reckoning we’re 70% along… it’s going to be a very, very interesting end to Q1 23.

GLA

A great opportunity for the new MoM to look the absolute business early doors… and he’s clearly not going to pass it up.

It’s becoming very evident that his predecessor was a big hinderance to the wider Kefi ambition, with a penchant for brown envelopes (which didn’t materialise)

It’s really all coming together now, and it’s hugely encouraging that the Ethiopian Gov are pushing from their side and advising that the tricky regulatory stuff is in the rear view mirror.

A very exciting March 2023 ahead.

GLA

Caterham7 - I’ve just seen your question, and wasn’t entirety sure what you were referring to.. and thought maybe it was the capitalisation of costs to be held on the balance sheet, being of a similar size.

From Rob’s reply I was barking up the wrong tree, so all good. Enjoy your weekends.

That is totally fantastic to read… cheers Rob
In particular the words of the new minister of mines and the knowledge that outstanding matters are not major or in any way ‘deal breakers’ .. more, making sure the foundations are 100%

Thanks Rob.. good to see this in black & white

Fantasy - yes, I agree.. I would have done 'same'

Fantasy.. you are making some good comments!

As I saw it, there was no ‘presentation’ to speak of.. it was more of a genuine attempt to answer some questions, a few good ones and a more than a few shockers .. Harry didn’t have to front up for this .. especially as he had an eye on time for a flight up to Addis ..

HAA did well in my view , he has never claimed to be a slick front man. But I do think he is a tenacious CEO with a huge amount of personal skin in this game. He also knows his stuff.

I have spent a lifetime on these types of deals and trust me (even if you don’t think you get stressed) you get infected by the stress of others - debt providers, PE sponsors.. and a whole bunch of professionals along for the ride and the money.

I think it would be good for this BB to cut the guy some slack and accept that he is in our boat and paddling his arms off to get us where we all want to be.

Yes, more patience required.. and yes, a poor management of expectations in recent weeks (which p155ed me off massively) BUT… it is happening and it will make us wealthy.