RE: Lol6 Apr 2023 02:01
Hi Fantasy
The thing that you and I probably agree upon is the utterly ridiculous timescale provided for financial close of “end of 2022” - that was brainless comedy (without the humour) subsequently proven by just how much has been done since Q4-22 and we’re STILL not quite there…
I can partly understand/excuse HAA for not being fully conversant with the timelines and process associated with a complex financing deal of this size, and nature. He is the CEO and has a wider brief.
However, for the CFO to be that far off the mental pace is astonishing and simply derisory. He should be replaced, ideally by a capable individual with considerably more related skill sets, and the ability to work effectively with equity sponsor groups and banks (who do know the timescales etc)
To your note, and by way of reply;
The presentation actually states “”Equity funds flow to Project” as Q2-3 2023
That is not what will initially catalyse this share price, it is a subsequent effect of the cause, as is debt funding flowing later still.. sometime in 2024 (when it’s needed)
The cause (IMHO and based on experience) is the nature of this deal going from ‘conditional’ to ‘unconditional’.. which begs the question, when is this?
‘Final lender approval’ is unconditional in and of itself for the major debt piece (once all conditions are satisfied - being only subject thereafter to ongoing performance covenants and conditions subsequent - which are post completion and funds drawdown in any event)
For me, the the signing of definitive agreements puts this whole deal into “DONE” status, as all parties are “committed” and that is when the market will really get behind this..
The flow of funds is a subsequent mechanism, akin to putting oil on the cogs..
So.. my timeline stands, accepting that this deal has many moving parts, and it is a country first, so some slack should be given.
Where we are now, compared to EO22 is really very encouraging, and points to real bipartisan momentum across Gov and private stakeholders.
GLA