RE: Edison update10 Dec 2022 06:00
Harry is a passenger here now.. this is being driven to a conclusion by multiple sets of legal teams, who all have to concur with each other prior to completion, having exhausted a long list of conditions precedent. This is a tortuous process.
Important to stress whilst waiting;
1. Inflation is baked into the deal, re mine build costs
2. Ethiopia will not experience wage growth anything like a developed nation in the medium term, as such the project is more inflation proof than most others
3. Kefi are focused on two highly dynamic, emerging economies - over the next 3 years the pain will be felt most in first world, tech-laden economies, which will NOT REMOTELY be going gang busters
4. We will likely go into ‘23 with a USD$1900 gold price which may well level out next year at $2200 or better - the financial modelling and forecasts are predicated on a much, much lower number. The implications are therefore very considerable re upside
It would be helpful if the company re-published some forecasts based on a more likely gold price, as a comparison to what we see in each and every presentation.
Whilst I like the conservatism and commend the CFO, it would be helpful to be reminded of the huge upside associated with a more likely value for the underlying asset class.
IMHO