Member Info for Sangijuelas1

They said on the last investor call that tech spend has peaked. Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow by up to £80m. Costs are also falling due to efficiency gains from deploying the Reimagined tech.

The other day you said 2 things. They aren't getting CFC orders and they will need to raise additional capital.

However, they would only need to raise capital if they got a substantial order for new CFCs.

JP Morgan were also named by the Times as advising Amazon on an Ocado bid

My belief is that Ocado saw the Amazon bid as derisory and dismissed it.

JPM raised it from 415 to 600 at end of January.

They really don't sound like they have much Idea what they are doing.

If you listened to them when they said their target was 600 and the SP was 550 you would have to be pretty annoyed that they come back a few months later to nearly halve their target price.

They forecast 15-20% Solutions growth for 2024. An optimistic scenario could be that the 20% was a figure inclusive of getting the development fees on the books at the end of the year.

So now it could be that in addition to the development fees they will get a few months of fees revenue and the recurring revenue from the cut they take from Coles sales. Possibly pushing Solutions revenue growth past say 22%.

About 80% of Solutions revenue is recurring from the fees and share of sales revenue. This was about,£360m in 2023.

Have to wonder if they are getting the Coles CFCs online quicker by fitting them out with Reimagined tech for the same price. It would seem to make sense if the recurring revenue is the main source of income.

The Madrid CFC for Alcampo is also expected to open this summer.

It looks like the delay with the New South Wales fulfilment centre has been overcome. It was expected to be pushed back to the end of the year but Coles CEO now says they expect it to open this quarter.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coles-shelf-price-inflation-softens-liquor-sales-fall-20240423-p5flxi

I really wouldn't worry about D1. They are short Ocado because they are long Instacart.

They funded Instacart at a valuation of 39bn dollars in 2021 only to see it list publicly for about 8bn. The round was funded by D1 at that valuation even after existing investors Sequoia Capital and Andreesen Horowitz had declined.

Instacart is not a serious company. See their latest quarterly report presented as a letter to shareholders.

When you get to the actual trading figures after wading through jokes from the CEO and all the things they are going to do in the future you can see an annual increase in revenue of 8%.

If I could be bothered I would short them.

After getting started with Thought Machine platform with a new digital bank to attract younger customers, it has gone so well that now they plan to use the TM platform to replace the existing core for the whole bank.

https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/en/newsroom/news/all-news/2024/proverbio-interview-cloud-technology-isytech

Yeah I posted that on here a couple of weeks back. Ocado's priority for generating revenue is increasing module uptake at existing sites so sales increases like that makes that more likely.

Ok Stupmy, you are right

Just looked through Instacart's full year earnings release. Presented as a "Letter to Shareholders".

This is not a serious company.

D1 are so smart that they invested in Instacart at a 39bn dollar valuation in 2021. Up significantly from the 2020 value of 7.5bn.

When it listed last year it did so at about 8bn.

Looking at the big D1 Capital short that seems to be related to their long position on Instacart.

I feel comfortable with that. The Ocado/Kroger partnership is primarily about delivering people's weekly grocery shop. You can't deliver chilled and frozen with Instacart so they are operating in somewhat different spaces.

It's like saying Deliveroo are going to cause Ocado sales to decline because their riders are going to Tesco to pick up a bottle of coke and a couple of pizzas.

D1 have an office in Miami so could be them aggressively pushing the Miami spoke closure fluff.

Stupmy- Buffett is pretty much the originator of the don't try to time the market idea.

He made money from learning as much as he could about a business and then sticking to his convictions.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-on-market-timing-165102647.html

Post about Ocado Automated Storage and Retrieval liked on LinkedIn by an Argos logistics manager.

She has a recommendation on LinkedIn written by the Coles Head of CFC Operations.

Fluff with no substance of course but Argos owner Sainsbury's have been starting to make more investment in warehouse automation.

That second paragraph sounds to me like they are looking out for discounted, more mature assets from distressed holders that can quickly be written up in value rather than further deployments to Series A rounds and seed.

I feel the portfolio is really bloated now. I hope the capital allocation plan involves some provision to reduce the debt burden.

You can't have it both ways VP.

First you say they won't be getting any more CFC orders and now you say they are running out of cash. This despite the fact that what would deplete the cash pile most would be having to pay for more CFCs

It's an investment trust type company.

They say the NAV per share is about 660p but carrying an enormous discount

Https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GROW&share=Molten-Ventures

Was ftse250 before demotion

I mentioned GROW on here the other day when at about 250 as showing some unexplained movement. I don't do charts but I imagine it must have an interesting one over the last 12 months. Lots of swings up and down. Up to 273 today.