focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Local and national news coverage of the accident. These pages can all be translated to English:
https://www.glsa.ro/tragedie-in-micul-cernobil-din-bihor-un-miner-si-a-pierdut-viata-in-timp-ce-repara-un-lift-in-mina/
https://www.antena3.ro/amp/muncitor-a-amurit-prins-sub-un-lift-mina-baita-judetul-bihor-680272.html
https://m.ebihoreanul.ro/stiri/accident-grav-la-mina-vast-baita-plai-un-miner-aflat-in-subteran-a-murit-strivit-sub-lift-180060.html
Nevergonnaretire: "the rns does suggest that a multiple shift pattern exists".
Agreed. If they've resolved that, then that might be a major (and previously, for the most part, well hidden) obstacle removed.
Hopefully the accident is not indicative of any underlying issues that would come to light through the authorities' investigations - though that remains to be seen.
TheInvestCollect: sure. Do you think there are ANY questions to be asked about management here? Or shall we just say "How awful" and give AP a medal for carrying on?
Please fill me in on the moral situation there as you see it.
Blades: "do people really think AP would waste his time spending 2 months in zim to come back with nothing !"
He did plenty of that in 2020. Drove the BB crazy with empty and pointless excitement. This is nothing new.
Sorry. Just me being realistic again. BUT! -
Having said that, the fact that Vast is willing to say F you to ZimGov and use due process of law and court enforcement to seek to "uplift" a historic asset rather than just keep kissing farce in pursuit of a pipe dream licence looks, to my eyes, like some hardball progress on his part.
So I've kind of enjoyed the storyline of the last few months. I've never seen AP hardball the politicians before this 'Historic Parcel' episode; and, in case no one had noticed, that's what he's been doing.
Hello Fantasy, hope you're keeping well. No. Anything I might have bought based on my judgment call on 9 Jan. is staying in the portfolio. I'm not a trader. Probably obvious by now.
Redhammy: thanks.
Techguru: what are those 'significant developments'? Any elaboration or just going at it with the tissues?
Redhammy: I don't see where that phrase you quote appears, although I'm looking back through the thread. Can you indicate which post you're referring to? Thanks.
Pecten: "Amazing how predictions come true".
You were right about IG. A pity the same cannot be said for IG's own predictions. Just the very recent selection:
16 June 15:42
"there aint no placing. Its just a security measure put in place to make the debt holders feel more comfortable".
21 June 09:45
"Why would Capstone be adding at these levels if there were no diamonds or if a big low ball placing was incoming".
21 June 10:38
"Boom time". [Price was 0.52 at the time.]
26 June 13:56
"There will be no placing. Its just part of the terms of the debt extension as a security for them should any problems arise with the diamonds."
26 June 15:21
"I think this 0.4p area is a strong platform to bounce hard from".
26 June 18:46
"There is no placing being worked and won't be for some time".
3 July 16:19
"0.8p tomorrow would be fun".
3 July 17:36
"0.8p this week" [new thread title].
4 July 07:51
"Think we may see 0.6p today".
7 July 08:11
"Placing done now. Its been talked about for the past week or so" - breezily and shamelessly stated as if he hadn't several times denied it would happen.
***
The only reason that a poster who is so repeatedly wrong is still read and has any posts recommended by anyone is because of the power of wishful thinking on these BBs over the power of analysis. Analysis and realism are in short supply on these chat boards; realism mostly goes down badly.
Pecten: yes, I noticed that too. He just won't give up on the ignorance or dishonesty, whichever it is.
Techguru: "I think the upside potential from these kids of price levels is pretty attractive from where i'm standing".
Yes, at an £11m m/cap, and with the company increasingly verifying the likelihood of its survival and progress, there is a lot of promise for the medium to longer term. I'm satisfied that my own call on 9 Jan that a punt is justified has stood up well. As I said then, when it was rock bottom, the judgment call was ultimately whether the company would live or die through 2023. My view, as I stated then, was that it would survive, and my view on that has tended to be reconfirmed.
But along the way, I continue to expect a lot of bumps in the road. I don't think diamonds will be quick. I don't think usable BPPM profit will be quick. I was right that Tajik revenue is delayed. I expect the remaining headroom to be used with all due abundance of excuses (it's Vast).
Expectation management and risk management remain key for anyone with sense.
IMO.
Lostsoul88: be patient. They'll use the rest over time. They always do. It's Vast's one and only proven business model. As I said when it was first announced, you have to look ahead to Q4 and 2024 with that scale of dilution. It'll be drawn upon again - and again. Just be patient :-)
IG: "notoriously awkward & difficult Nomad."
No. Fatty is nothing of the kind.
But you are right that it's in black and white. At least as regards June.
Oofy: "This is a pure speculation on the existence and accessibility of the diamonds."
Sympathetic to your post but should note that it also remains a speculation, ultimately more importantly, on BPPM becoming profitable as that is the company's sole directly operated ongoing revenue centre. That is again delayed (again as I projected) but progress apparently continues. So we'll see the Q2 numbers when they're in to see what the trajectory really looks like.
Well, I said it, as did some others.
But keeping it real is almost always thankless.
Phillip1976: what the latest RNS made clear is that ZimGov is not cooperating adequately with Vast. That is why Vast has now opted to go for the direct enforcement option of the court judgment.
EGTP: "I stated a number of times previous (from fact) that there was no headroom for another placing, but these posts were constantly reported and re-moved for telling the truth".
I'm puzzled by this closing comment of yours.
Would you agree that there is headroom now? I believe it's been reported that the GM motions passed.
SV: "RIDDLE ME THIS".
1. No part of Vast is in profit.
2. They are running on fumes.
But, then again, at £13m m/cap, people will tell you that that's a lot less of a market valuation than some other companies about which the same can be said. So, in fact, I don't think those are specifically the reasons why the SP has dropped a bit. It's been range trading for some time, and I don't yet see any real change to what the range is. Best to raise the question again when the range breaks either upward or downward.
Just IMO.
So now we know.
1. ZimGov were not playing ball anytime soon.
2. Vast decided to seek direct enforcement of the court judgment.
3. The bank and the sheriff said: 'Err, yikes, we need to figure out that this is okay'.
4. The bank and the sheriff have sort of just about got there.
5. ZimGov's view of this is not stated. I'm going to guess they're in no way chuffed about it.
So IMO, that's quite promising about getting the 'Historic Parcel' in Q3 but it doesn't bode well for a good working relationship with ZimGov when it comes to any future mining licence.
Just IMO.
Oofy: eloquent enough. But actually Vast's first port of call is the Attorney General's office. So what are they doing?