Member Info for sandancer

You've got to laugh - cos if you didn't you would cry.

Another Harbour (and before that PMO) Trading Update / Results Day comes and goes and the share price falls yet again.

Its just the way things are.

At suspect I'm not alone in my disappointment - share price is now below any of the predictions for the Friday Club.

There's always the FTSE reshuffle at the start of December when we can look forward to regaining our place in the FTSE 100.

All we need is the share price to rise 10% between now and the end of the month........

It's the optimism that keeps you going........

Given the content of the budget it would probably have been a bit unsettling to have a portrait of Lawson staring down on you.

If the opportunity for some form of merger or takeover of Talos presents itself in the short term, then maybe they will have to act. Otherwise I think it would be preferable to wait until the Wintershall deal settles down. There were so many moving parts to that deal I think it would be better if we could see some consolidated results, which might help put a fair value on the shares as they stand now before we start with any other deals. I suspect like most people I think there is greater value in the shares than is reflect in the share price at present, so I think the board need to try to realize some of that value first.

Personally I just blame myself - the lesson in these situations is not to mess around thinking you might make a little bit more - just take the money on offer and run. I think my average was less than 40p and the price touched about 115p with the BP deal (that's £23 in todays money). Stupidly I only sold about 25% of the holding - and then watched the rest just slip away when the deal collapsed. Yes you can blame covid and ARCM, but ultimately I think most people invested in PMO knew the risks when they invested and many had the chance to get out at a good profit - so you can only blame yourself for not taking it.

Even if it was off book there would still be a requirement to issue holdings notifications. So if there are off book transactions they are not Carlos Slim or BoA and they probably aren't big quantities.

who on earth writes this *******s.

a 269% increase in output - no output is 269% of what it was.

only 72% boost to the market cap - for comparison it might be better to say the market cap is 172% of what it was.

unfortunately as this also fails to take account the non voting shares handed out to letterone or any of the debt that has been taken on - this makes the comparison totally meaningless.

If you are really going to disappear down this rabbit hole then maybe you need to consider if not developing these fields would actually lead directly to a reduction in fossil fuel consumption - if not then presumably the required production will take place somewhere else, probably with lower environmental standards and additional emissions associated with transportation - otherwise its not a realistic assessment?

They told you again as recently as 4pm last Friday afternoon.

There is definitely something odd about it.

With Barclays payments from IT's are always in the account on the same day. For other shares it will be either on the payment day or the next day. But every payment I have had from Harbour since they started paying dividends has been late - and always by at least a week.

My account is with Barclays - every dividend payment due on Harbour shares has taken at least a week beyond the payment date - last time was 2 weeks. When I contacted them about this they blamed Harbour saying that they have not yet received payment! This week I payments have been made by both Phoenix and Aviva and both were in the account on the due payment day - so maybe the problem is with Harbour.

Credit Limit - What on earth makes you think the creditors are happy to take the equity. They are probably far from happy about it but its most likely a choice between doing that or writing off their investment! Its not just the fact that the company needs to convert the existing debt to equity - its the fact that the company needs a new capital injection just to keep going. If no one puts in the new capital the company is finished irrespective of any D4E.

The reality is that the situation is deteriorating rapidly now - if they cant get this through - and bear in mind that this is only an agreement in principal and dependent on the company being able to obtain to obtain the required guarantees - this will go under.

Well yes - who knows - the £1 party might be closer than you think!

This is an object lesson in how things can go from bad to worse.

In the RNS on 12th April the company said they were in discussions with certain major shareholder regarding potential further investments. These were the only people who might have had any interest in keeping the share price higher. They have clearly either walked away or been unable to raise required funds.

The fact that bond holders are even considering putting in new money in return for more equity - on top of the D4E swap - tells you all you need to know. That they think this is the only way they can prop up the company in order to salvage something from their investment. And if they are having to do this - when even major shareholders cant or won't - then clearly existing shareholders are going to be as good as wiped out.

Going forward they have to ensure that 'New Petrofac' are well capitalized enough to progress the order book - and to give confidence to customers - otherwise there will be no new orders.

The risk is that they will put in just enough to keep them going in the short term.

The price of the D4E swap and capital raise is almost irrelevant. Whatever it is this is going to generate a huge number of new shares which are going to be held by people who really don't want them. Its going to create a huge overhang of shares which will take a very long time to clear. Some will no doubt exit at the first opportunity - others will wait and sell into any price rise in the 'new' shares.

We haven't seen the details yet - but it doesn't look like 'New Petrofac' is going to be an attractive investment.

@tuan6

BTW - I think my problem with Petrofac is not that I've been negative - it's that in reality I've been far too positive.

@ tuan6

Just because your obviously so concerned - I've had a small shareholding in Petrofac since 2017 - and it's been the proverbial jam tomorrow share. And in that time there have been opportunities to sell out at a profit - but every time the company seems to turn a corner it finds another way of kicking you in the teeth. I finally sold out following the RNS in March - because after that I really couldn't see that there is much potential upside to the share price - and a lot of potential downside. For me taking that hit - which was about 1% of the value of my portfolio - seemed the obvious choice. Having averaged down - including picking up quite a lot of shares @20p in December - I actually came away with 85% of my investment - and for me that money is much better invested elsewhere. Its my choice - just as you presumably remaining invested is yours.

But having been in Petrofac so long I think I have an interest in seeing how it pans out. Hope that keeps you happy.

OK - and this is a serious question - if you really think that the £8bm backlog is going to offer little more than turnover - then why are you - indeed why would anyone - be invested here.

The RNSs have effectively said they need to raise new money to progress the backlog - and no-one is going to invest unless they can see they are going to get a return on that investment. And if no-one is willing to put in the new money where will they be. And there has to be a risk that unless they can demonstrate some tangible progress soon they will start to loose the back orders - and then where will they be.

Ivor - if it really came to it they could settle any amount of debt with a Debt for Equity swap.

I think the actual amount in £ is closer to £690m rather than £900m but that's almost irrelevant.

The amount just depends on the issue price:

3,450,000,000 at 20p

6,900,000,000 at 10p

13,800,000,000 at 5p

So if this happens the existing equity (522,000,000)is going to be very seriously diluted - just pick your degree of severity.

In reality I suspect not all the debt will be converted or the lenders may take a hair cut or both.

The real sticking point in all of this however is that whatever they do to restructure the existing debt - someone also needs to put in new capital or else they aren't going to be able to progress the order book.

Its not going to be the lenders if they've just taken a hit and seen there existing loans converted to shares.

Its unlikely to be the bondholders - for pretty much the same reason.

And its not going to be the existing shareholders - because with 58% retail - its going to be pretty hard to raise the amount required - particularly when many are still in denial about the requirement for this.

So the remaining option would be a new investor - but they are going to want to come in at the lowest possible price.

Whoever puts new more in - the board are going to have to persuade that there is enough value in the $8bn backlog - that it will convert to profit and cashflow - or else no-one is going to invest,

And yes you can say that there might be a take over - but given that there board are pretty much confirming that the only alternative is D4E - even if someone came in with an offer why would they much higher than the D4E value?

Todays RNS still refers to delivering on the $8 Billion backlog.

However the issue may well be that the company aren't able to provide adequate evidence of the value in the order book. Can they actually convert this into profits and positive cashflow - as recent history is not on their side in this respect. Who is going to agree to a restructuring plan - or putting in new money - if it just puts them on the hook further down the line.

Even if they do get agreement - and agreement on a cash investment - the RNS makes it quite obvious that PI's will not be invited to take part. Discussions are with 'certain major share holders' - so not doubt Asfari and Azvalor will be allowed to pick up a boat load of shares at deep discount whilst everyone else is severely diluted. And yes PI's will vote it through - because when the time comes it will be made quite clear what the alternative would be.

I'm amazed that the share price today is still managing to hold around the same level as it was following the last RNS - even though its gone from D4E being likely to effectively being confirmed today.

Its not really - as these are just purchases by the company for non-exec directors renumeration. This is as they did on the 5th of April last year - the main difference being that this year they are getting 3 times as many shares - which would be on account of the shares being worth 1/3 of what they were last year.