Member Info for sandancer

Well it's a reduction! It means that they bought over 400k shares on a day when just 1600k were traded in total.

It will be interesting to see if they reduce further given that they are still a lot more exposed than any of the other shorts.

If we ever make £15-23 I'll buy everyone on here a beer ;)

Poker

Well yes - except in this case we are talking about information that should have been freely available to everyone - and which for some reason Schroder's did not disclose in accordance with the regulations.

We all know that the reality is the market is going to be slanted against PI's - but it doesn't help when the big fish clearly break the rules.

Poker

I agree with you regarding shorting - its not the issue - as you said market transparency is the issue.

I think LTH in Petrofac are only too well aware of issues bribes being taken - otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess!

But perhaps why we might also expect a level playing field - we get caught whilst others seemingly get away with it.

Poker

The issue is transparency - so as far as possible there should be a reasonably level playing field for investors. In failing to properly declare their share sales properly, Schroder's have withheld information which should have been available to all investors. What we don't know is whether this was due to negligence or as a willful action.

What we do know is that this information would have been very useful to short sellers. Did they somehow get hold of this information - and again if so was this action by a single person acting on their own or was it connected to the company?

Is it really pure coincidence that during this period of share sales by Schroder's, that Petrofac also became the most shorted stock on the market. And nobody knew anything?

It needs investigating at least - otherwise one might get the impression that the LSE is potentially a cesspit of corruption.

I think anyone who is invested in Harbour would have long since given up the notion the the share price may in some way be connected to the price of oil - except perhaps when it goes down.

Checked this on the MSCI website. It appears that Petrofac is presently in the small cap index - which it will be deleted from at the end of the month. It will then be added to the micro cap index as per the list posted. So this appears to be a change that reflects the reduced market cap.

I think what people find harder to believe is that there are others who apparently have no financial stake in this either way yet manage to spend all day here posting absolute nonsense entirely of their own volition.

It's worth checking if they can lend out stock anyway - I suspect that they probably cannot.

The Barclays Smart Investor terms clearly state that they will not loan out any stock from your account.

You need to ask him what happened to all the other companies he's predicted 'ITS OVER'. The prophet of doom has been banging on about some of them for the past 3 or 4 years yet their demise has yet to happen.

Maybe there is some reason why they can't at the moment.

The only trades which seem to be showing on LSE are O trades it.

So either there are no automatic trades or they're just not showing up in the data.

Now that would be good ;)

I wonder if they're talking to each other about how they manage the exit - or is one just going to make a dash for the door and leave the others to burn.

We could be getting close to the release of some news now - and almost any good news would lift the share price considerably - so how much longer can they afford to wait given the timescale its going to take to get out.

Yes - but Enquest do also have net debt equivalent to twice their market cap.

It almost feels like reading a typical Premier Oil update......disappointing.

There might be a message to Jeremy in there too - but I can't imagine him taking to much notice.

So the main take away from this - if we didn't already know it - is why we need to move focus away from the UK and the importance of the Wintershall deal as part of that process.

Taking a view over the next twelve months the share price still looks good value at anything under £3 with the potential to pocket 20p in dividends and hopefully reach or exceed the £3-60 value placed on the shares as part of the deal.

Remember the late afternoon RNS from Harbour just before Christmas...............

Stocknor - Just wondering what happens if the RNS does land? Share price could close at 25p day - RNS lands at 7am - stock opens at 8am 35 - 40p - straight into auction - could be 45 - 50p before you even get the chance to buy. You might think small to no chance - but it could happen.

Don't be ridiculous. The business isn't going to disappear - in reality the sums of money involved are not huge in relation to the order book and the potential future pipeline. Other than the short's it wouldn't be in anybody's interest for the company to fail - it would just cause a headache all round for everyone - and that includes the banks. They will find a funding solution - what we are really arguing is how much of the company remains in the hands of the existing shareholders.

It would make a much bigger difference this time. In 2021 the new share issue was approximately 50% of the existing shares. Under the open offer shareholders were allowed to apply for 1 share for every 4 held - resulting in a dilution even for those who took up the offer in full. At these levels to raise £100 million would require 100% of existing shares to be issued - £200 million 200%. Again if its in the form of a placing existing shareholders are unlikely to be able to take up new shares pro-rata their existing holding - so its going to be a much bigger dilution - with upside limited by the much bigger total number of shares in issue. The shorts seem to be banking on this as the outcome.

The way out of this would be for the company to get the share price up in the short term - contract completions, upfront payments, asset sales, extended loans or new contracts and then carry out a capital raise later in the year at a higher price if it can be deferred that long - possibly as part of renegotiation of the RCF. If they can do this we might just see off the shorts.