Member Info for samb69

Exactly Maxage.. They are a two bit outfit in terms of a research & trading entity..

Where are you seeing liabilities of 4.9M
In their last set of accounts filed for SHADOWFALL CAPITAL & RESEARCH LLP
Company number OC415602 they net assets of about 400K only

or genuine buyers coming in?
next couple of days will be interesting

RichTheNewbie
I maybe an idiot.. but for sure I don't know what the hell your answer was to question of what the price post rights is likely to be... lol

BMW own the car business...

Your maths is all wrong RichTheNewbie..

The TERP will be determined by the closing share price before ex rights. eg If RR is at 130p before it goes ex rights then in theory it should open at 54p. That's the mathematical price but it could be anything 50p, 60p,65p.. on opening depending on many things eg any good/bad news

If I was in your situation, I would take up the rights and wait to see if it went lower after ex rights to purchase more..

I never said it would..

Unfortunately from many past rights issues like this the share price drifts towards the discounted price and so it's not just making a quick 10% we are talking about.

Anyway everyone has there own opinion to what the price is likely to be after post rights.. In my opinion new investors will be looking at 40-45p to put there money in.. It's a different story perhaps for existing holders who need to take up the rights to average down. Good luck to all..

What I'm alluding to is that I cannot see Institutions buying any shares right now to drive the price upwards to 200p like some have mentioned. Is it PI's being sucked in or shorts closing..

When there is a huge rights issue like this, there are going to be billions of new shares in circulation and if the underwriters are left holding a big rump, this usually causes the share price to drop off after the rights issue.

In my opinion, only people who want to sell..

New investors would want the price to be as low as possible before ex rights to get the lowest TERP

It's quite clear reading this board that there are a lot of people who have no idea how this heavily discounted rights issue is going to affect the future share price. They seem to only look at the share price and think when everything gets back to normal the share price will head back up to £4 or £5. They seem to ignore the number of shares that are going to be in issue from 1.9 billion to 8 billion.

Pre covid the mcap at around £6 per share was approx £11 billion. To get back to the same valuation of £11 billion the share price is around £1.40 after the additional 6billion shares that are going to be issued. So if you have not done your calculations and think the share price will go back to £4/5 please think about the number of shares that are going to be in issue.

Like taiz said, for every 3 shares you hold before the record date, you will be able to but 10 more at 33p. It does not matter what the current share price is.. It's the number of shares you hold at the record date.

You can buy shares anytime before the record date and still participate in the rights issue.

This rights issue is an opportunity for the big boys to make a killing. They will want to get in at the lowest price...

How do you work that out Sherlock?
The lower the price you can buy before ex rights, the lower your TERP

So on the second of October after the rights issue announced they raised the target from 1.30p to 4.39p.
Don't be a PILL..OK

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1601628244391698800/uk-broker-ratings-summary-morgan-stanley-raises-imi-to-overweight.aspx

Made me chuckle.. Lets screw the shareholders at 32p rights issue and then value the the company at over £4 to mcap of £32billion

Some people think this share may recover back up to £3/4 in the near future. Even if there was a vaccine/ flights resumed here is the reality:
Pre covid, the share price was around £6.50 and RR had a market cap of around 11 Billion.
To get back to that sort of pre covid market cap after the heavily discounted rights issue, the share price would need to be around £1.40.
Yes, this is a simplified calculation but In my opinion, RR share price is going to below £1 for many, many years.

Dan
Yes you could do but that is a risky trade. Imagine if some good news came out like a working vaccine announced - the share price might rocket up, even if temporary jump and you may be margined out. If you think it may fall below the ex rights price I would then wait for the price to fall to a much cheaper level and buy.

The price is going to bounce around before ex rights. I shorted at a 'safe' price of 125p and planned to get out at around 85-90p if it got there before ex rights but as you saw the price bounced back up of the lows and may carry on towards 130p.
I have no previous share holding and would take a punt of buying if the shares fell to around the discounted price offered of 33p. Similar with IAG, the share price is approaching the 84p discounted price of shares that were offered, well below the ex rights price and would buy some at that level or below.