Member Info for Saintge

You are correct, my decimal point was off. But my idea still holds water. There are far less shares traded today then on Thursday last week. The 2 registered short positions would have had to buy close to all of the shares traded both today and yesterday in order to close their positions. This of course doesn't include all of the small positions or the effects of day traders reselling stocks.

Lastly, I rounded up to 116m to make the information more digestible.

Unfortunately I neglected to provide the evidence for my assumptions.

There has been a large number of after market trades, some 2.5m that I have noted, these are cleanly completed by traders with short positions as using the after hours system stops these large trades affecting the daily share price of yougov. It is notable that since Monday the volume of shares in these trades has reduced, with today's after hours trades totalling just 300k. With less volume traded throughout the day (aided by mid and long term investors and funds holding their stocks of yougov) and significantly less volume available after hours, the liabilities of short positions increase dramatically. The likelihood of a short squeeze becomes more certain. The recovery of yougov's share price is most likely to happen in the following days and weeks rather than months.

Regarding short positions and day traders:

There are currently two short positions registered. Glg Partners Lp holds 0.63% requiring some 73m shares to close. Moreover, Jpmorgan Asset Management (Uk) Ltd holds 0.56% which requires another 65m shares to close. From Monday only 4.4m shares have changed hands, I suspect a large amount of these shares have been passed around by day traders for short term profits given the high number of trades.

Unless a fund dumps their shares, it is unlikely the short positions will be closed anytime soon. This increases their exposure and the likelihood of a short squeeze. Interestingly, over the last week (7 days) only about 18m shares have passed through the LSE, 11.5m of which were traded during the first day of the spiral. There are likely many more smaller short positions which will reduce in profitability or perhaps the traders will significantly struggle to close.

Unless a large volume of shares drop tomorrow or Friday, the price may start to recover by Friday or Monday, as short sellers panic to get the volumes required to close their positions and thus liabilities.

Day traders have passed shares around all week, looking for a small gain here and there. Hence the large amount of trades. As interest in yougov normalises, the margins will reduce and this will naturally stop once there are better stocks to hawk over.

Day traders and short sellers need each other but one normally loses out. Day traders help bring the stock down and of course they want to off load their liability which means short sellers can pick up these stocks easily. But there is a point when day traders create upwards drives and short sellers step back for the share price to crash and the day traders to lose big.

In conclusion, if you hold yougov for the mid or long term, it is best for you to continue to hold your position. At least until the end of year report on 31 July. If you are a short seller, it is best for you to try and close your position before another short seller picks up the handful of shares traded. If you are a day trader, please continue to trade as normal as this will frustrate the short sellers and likely create momentum for the price to rise.

4) following point 3 above, if people stop selling their shares, short positions may be squeezed as their are forced to pay more for shares in order to get investors holding their positions to sell.

There is a few issues with what you state:

1) if share holders stop selling, the price would stop moving down.

2) we are just over a month away from full year trading statement, which is likely to put to rest most investor concerns. I am positive most people can wait a month to ascertain the true health of yougov.

3) Glg Partners Lp has closed 0.08% of it short position. Given there are 116m or so shares in issue, and their position was 0.71%, they required some 82m shares to fully close their short. They have not done so because there has not been enough shares traded, recent trades/volumes are up but not enough shares to fully close their position. I believe it is around 3m or so shares trade since Monday.

4) following point 3 above, if people stop selling their shares, short positions may be squ

Yougov is more likely then not to recover. It is a strong company, arguably the market leader. Withing a few months, yougov share price will be mid-point through its recovery.

That is great advice! The best action for most people/investors would be to ignore yougov for a few weeks, perhaps a few months, whilst the stock stabilise. Everytime someone panics and starts selling off their holdings in yougov, the stock is only going to drop lower. It creates greater pressure and instability. If investors stopped selling, the price would correct itself rather quickly.

Interestingly, I would add most of the investors/brokers that have offered their opinion or projected share price seem to fail to understand just how businesses operate. The debt yougov recently acquired was not because the company is mismanaged and is having issues staying afloat. Rather, it was to invest in the business, to open future growth options (which is something you would want a good company to do). Simply look at tesla (10b in debt) or NVIDIA (11b in debt). Maybe look at Coca-Cola, one of the most profitable and strongest companies ever formed, runs on a debt of 45b or so. Debt is not bad providing it is used to develop the business, yougov's debt is actually very small in comparison to most top or comparable companies. A quick look at yougov's competitors shows that an average debt for a company like yougov is around 300m (a few have debts around 500m). Yougov has debt of 200m (used to acquire companies to grow its own business), which is actually 150m given yougov holds over 50m cash. Lastly, due to yougovs liquidity/its strong cash generation, it is very likely to pay down the debt fast.

On the yougov Web page for investors, there is an email for investor relations. I think it would be good for the company to try and reassure investors in some way. But I am not sure exactly how they would do this, perhaps a share buy back announcement using some of their liquidity/forgoing a dividend payment this year (this would reassure investors/funds, help stabilise the share price and give value back to both the investors and the company).

Yougov's share price drop is insanity at best, and clear market manipulation at worst. On Monday and Tuesday there were large out of hours buy orders for more than 2m respectively. This was completed out of hours so that it would not drive the price up, one of the orders was at 464p a share totally 1m. There have been a large number of small volume trades of 1 to 100 ish shares always at below current market price, in quick succession and descending price points dragging any move upwards right back down. Strange to say the least.

Ultimately, weather or not the significant price drop is market manipulation or people being over cautious, we need to look at the fundamentals of yougov and determine if it as a company is worth buying at this value.

Yougov, like all other companies nationally and international, is operating in a poor, unstable economic environment. Yougov specialises in market research and opinion polling which is directly related to advertising, marketing and expanding businesses. Companies here have all suffered a decline in profits with many edging towards the red. Google and facebook, to name a few, have found it diffcult to maintain profitability in this global economic down turn. Nevertheless, yougov is still profitable with expected profits of at least 41m. It has managed this without layoffs, down sizing or cut backs. Very impressive, more so given companies like tesla, Facebook, target, amazon and many more have had to implement such policies.

As the global and local economies recover, so will yougov. As the global economy grows, so will yougov. Its businesses scales with economic growth.

Yougov has recently acquired two businesses minded towards future growth. Both aline with the services currently provided by yougov, as well as adding new services and opportunities that yougov will capitalise on. A significant proportion of the current profits from these investments will not show up on the balance sheets until 2025. Yougov still retains a large amount of liquidity, some 50m. The only draw back here is the debt but all modern companies have debts (Coca-Cola, tesla, Facebook, amazon). Debts are how businesses grow.

Yougov is financially stable, and is in a great position to grow. If we compare this to the asos share price crash, yougov shines (although it highest just how strange yougov's share price drop truly is). Asos was a top fast fashion provider in sharp decline, the signs were there for a while yet no one cashed out until asos was moments away from deletion. Asos experienced significant declining revenue whilst comparable businesses were thriving. It stopped expanding (yougov is expanding). It had terrible liquidity (yougov has excellent liquidity). An unsustainable businesses model (yougov has a modern sustainable business model). High overhead, low margins (yougov has low overheads and high margins). Asos was/is the complete opposite of yougov.

Yougov is a clear hold if not buy whilst it is cheap.