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Some rationale thought! Lloyds will likely be back to 60p by Monday. The day after dividends share prices drop equal to said dividend, most of the time the price is back to normal within a week.

Lloyds is seriously undervalued, largely bacuse of retell investors.

One more thing, this is why retell investors are far more likely to lose money than they are to make money in the stock market. As soon as a financial influencer says something bad about a stock or a broker gives a lower rating, retell investors sell off. Notwithstanding the actual situation of the company or how great a business is. Brokers are wrong most of the time, that is why actively managed funds always underperform SnP500 funds. Brokers are mouth pieces for how to lose money, whatever they say should be taken with a grain of salt then forgotten. Financial influencers are worse, the poster child's for scammers and low IQ investing.

Lloyds is in the best shape and greatest position to make money it has been in since 2008 and the financial crash. Yet retell investors start selling when it is the time to hold and profit. Why? Because you were told to do so or as it feels right, perhaps it was a hot tip. Just take a minute and think, lloyds very large share buy back could push it to 70p, the UK economy recovery should push it to 70p, Labour's drive for more home could also push it to 70p a share. All this will happen within the next 6 to 12 months. Maybe hold?

Obviously lloyds do not want rates below 1% but having them too high is poor for business as well. For lloyds mortgage business, which is most of what they do, they need the middle ground. Rates low enough people are more likely to take up mortgages but high enough they still make money. From what the BoE have said today, that is where we are heading, normal interest rates are going to sit at 3.5% or there about. This will be great for lloyds, more customers but still receiving great returns on capital.

The sell off also ignores the significant share buy back, which will likely push the price back over 60p very soon.

I know markets control the price of a stock but lloyds share price drop has no basis. Lloyds is well positioned to benefit from interest rates going down as their main business is mortgages. The sweet spot for lloyds would be something like 4% interest rates as this would likely help the housing market rebound and cause an up take in business whilst allowing lloyds to charge higher rates and thus increase profitability.

I know markets control the price of a stock but lloyds share price drop

The FY24 statement has a very low hurdle in order to make the share price move upwards, the following is very likely to happen:

It needs to hit full year profits in-line with their profit warning. This is very likely to happen given the profit warning was made only 6-7 weeks before FY24 statement and thus they should know with a high degree of accuracy roughly what the profits are. Moreover, that three different directors (with insider knowledge) have taken reasonable sized positions since the profit warning (implying they know the FY24 statement is going to be at least reasonable and therefore move the share price up).

They need to hold dividends to assure investors of yougov's rebound. This is very likely to happen as their predicted profits (from the profit warning) are still within last years rage.

Lastly, yougov must explain why their profits have stayed within last years rage notwithstanding making significantly higher revenue this year. The higher revenue shows yougov has grown and is a stronger company this year, we just need to know why the profits havent followed suit. I am sure they will do this, and it is likely the two acquisitions during 24 trading which caused the decline in profits. Simply put, yougov pushed too hard for growth and the cost of this growth has eaten into profits but in the following year 25, this push for growth is likely to pay off significantly as the investment is already made/paid for.

Regarding the FY24 statement being moved from 31 July to 6 August, I believe this is positive, and most likely to include in this year's accounts some or all of the profits that were going to be rolled forward into FY25 accounts. Follwing the HY24 statement and the profit warning, I estimate about 20% of the profits from yougov's two acquisitions in FY24 were going to be rolled into FY25. This would be about 6m in profits and given the yougov share price drop, it is very likely that the directors of yougov have pushed to include this in this year's statement in order to show the drop off in profitability is very small and largely caused from the acquisitions. Moreover, that this drop will invert in FY25 as the costs have been paid.

If I am right about the above, I could easily see yougov jump to 600p upwards. But of course this is just a theory, a trade theory! Haha. But seriously, my predictions are based entirely on research and evidence. I have been right everytime I have said the price is going to move up or down. The price will reach 500p or there about by the FY24 statement, 600p++ after the statement if they have pushed to include the full profits this year, and then 800p by HY25 in January by which time yougov would have again proved their profitability and growth.

If you can handle the heat, buy in and hold: at some point we are likely going to get a Short squeeze... big returns if you can hold your nerve. I can see the stock gong past 600p easy. But if this is too stressful, be realistic about your risk tolerance.

I said last week that we would see another dip this week. Short positions haven't been closed and yougov shares are very valuable to manipulation. Their small flot, low daily trading volume, having only 10% of their shares traded among general investors (90% are held by insiders, funds etc as long terms positions), the short positions which means more shares are in circulation than there should be, the fact there is no stamp duty as it is an aim stock, and let's not forget day traders looking for action driving the price up when they buy and dropping the price when they sell. There is more to be said here, but you get the idea, until we get FY24 statement the price won't stabilise.

Best advice is to hold or buy in if you believe in yougov (this is what I have done) or sell once the price is up.

No, facts are either right and thus factual or they are wrong and therefore not facts. Facts aren't opinions, they aren't tested by how we feel. They are tested by their data base and if it is correct or incorrect.

What you just said about Biden and manufacturing is incorrect. Under Biden manufacturing 'commitments' double follow massive subsidises (this happened mid 2023 but still hasnt been implementet). Biden and his government had to bribe companies in order to try and beat Trumps economic out put, and despite this they still haven't passed trump.

I am politically neutral, I do not support parties but good ideas, policies and leadership. Biden has destroyed the US economy: if you remove the big 7 tech companies from US stocks, you see their stock markets have performed worse than any other western country. bidenomics has become a joke among those on the left as well as the right, just go and search up egg inflation where you can see the cross party support about how bad bidenomics has been.

Bidenomics, in 20 years or so, will be taught at university as an example of how to do as much damage as possible to an economy without making any meaningful social change or positive outcomes.

Notice I didn't go for the easy win regarding Biden's well documented mental decline. A search of his speeches pre-2020 vs now, show he has something like dementia and isn't in control. But this is a mute point for me, as it is the policies which have damaged the economy in the US. Biden is just a puppet.

SharetrackerA:

Regarding the director buys, I never said it was insignificant rather I would have like to have seen more. In relation to other director buy ins, yes it is actually small buy in from yougov directors but it was important to show faith in the business.

I do not hold political positions, growing money so i can retire is politically neutral like me haha. I have just highlighted a few possible issues that may affect the UK economy, views which are shared by the BOE and a number of top economist.

Yes, completely agree. It seems like the stock price is being manipulated. But this could be the low volume combined with day trades and short positions.

Your ideas of trump is interesting given he promotes business and economic growth. The US did far better under him than Biden, this is a matter of fact from the economic data (no opinion held).

The EU and our labour government will ultimately determine our economic fate and if yougov returns to full profitability.

The world is in a strange place at the moment.

Shares were over inflated during covid due to lots of people having spare cash as they could not go out and buy their £8 coffees haha.

It is very unlikely that interest rates will drop this year, mainly because of service inflation data. With many predicteling that over the next six months base line inflation will trend upwards in part due to service inflation but also a consequence of red sea attacks and global pressures on fuels. We are living through complex political and economic times.

I like yougov, my posts on here evidence this. But there are more issues now then a week ago which the company is going to have to navigate. IMO yougov is still a good business but I am not sure if 800p is on the cards, i think 600p seems more reasonable until it is back to being a growth stock.

My final thought here is that yougov is very likely to jump up and down for the next few months unless FY24 statement is very positive or some other highly positive news comes out. Yougov shares are volatile.

It is a nagging thought I have had that the directors haven't brought more shares. A thought which is concerning given they know the health of the business and if the FY24 statement was going to be positive (in line with the profit warning) you would think buying shares is easy money. I might not be as optimistic as I was, even with this move upwards, but only time will tell. I may hold just for the mid term.

I also have new concerns about services related inflation and how this may impact yougov. If this leads to interest rates being kept higher for longer or perhaps another spike upwards for interest rates, yougov could have another year were profits dip. Yougov is also a service business, a higher price for worker and people's time will impact their profitability.

Further, I am worried about our new labour government and the EU. Yougov is a data business growing into AI, the EU seem to be trying to place more limitations on these types of companies. EU really doesnt like AI. Moreover, the new Labour government is planning new laws around cyber security, data sharing and services. This could have a big impact on yougov; if data handling and management becomes more costly or if they are heavily restricted on how they can use and sell data, yougov could be in hot water.

Lastly, Labour are playing with the idea of increasing the minimum wage to a living wage, like what Biden did in the US. The reason the US has experienced inflation worse than the rest of the west is a direct consequence of the Democrats living wage. Eggs jumping up to over 20 dollars for a tray. Forget yougov, this could flat line the UK economy. Regarding yougov, this will affect their bottom line and eat into profits.

There are significantly more unknows now then just a week earlier. More red flags in the economy. A higher price to be paid if yougov cannot maintain its growth stock status.

Yougov has very low volume day to day and week to week because there is only about 10 percent or 11-12m shares held by general investors. The rest of the shares are held by insiders and funds. This means any buy or sell moves has a big impact on price.

As for this big jump upwards, we are likely to see a big move down tomorrow. Like we saw yesterday. I hope we don't but that seems to be the trend.

I have a large position in yougov brought near the bottom, so this move up is great news for me. But I am cautious that is it likely to have these big jumps up and down until investors are satisfied yougov is a safe investment again and the short positions are closed.

We may also get what we got last week where the stock tanks because of a lot of very small sell trades that slowly pulled it down. Best option is to set it and forget it or sell out with the gains made so far. No point in obsessing.

Last point I would make is that until we get the FY24 statement, we actually don't know the shape yougov is in. I think the company is still doing great, but we just don't know. I really would have liked to have seen some tr-1s or larger director buys.

The movement upwards is good, but the short positions haven't changed nor has the been any TR-1s. I think people need to be careful of another big dip. Also the shares have had really low volume which makes the price more volatile as any pressure from buy or sell moves the number.

Still a long term holder, yougov will get back to over 600p. But, the stock hasn't cleared this obstacle yet.

The movement upwards is good, but the short positions haven't changed. I think people need to be careful of another big dip. Also the shares have had really low volume which makes the pri

There is a rumour, and I cannot stress this enough it is just a rumour, that someone is trying to raise the funds to either take over yougov or take a controlling percentage of the shares. The rumours have been on x and discord.

I personally do not think there is much to the rumour, wishful thinking on the whole. But yougov is very cheap at the moment and I could see how they would benefit a company developing AI. Their data sets and further collection of targeted data could give an AI company the edge over their competitors. Even if there isn't a take over, I could see yougov moving into the supply of data for AI. Perhaps for now just wait.

Another Director buy reported, really evidences my point about yougov shares being very likely to rocket after the FY24 if not before.

FY24 Statement is the 31 July but I think you are right about the short position holders. We are likely heading towards a short squeeze. They have somewhere between now and 3 weeks to close their positions before I think investors start buying back in. The FY24 statement is very likely to be positive, in line with the profit warning of course, after which 600p upwards is more than likely. This issue, of the short squeeze, is compounded for the short holders by that fact that only 10% or so of the shares are held by general investors and thus open for them to close out their short positions. This is why the daily trading volume of yougov is so low.

Final thoughts here: those that hold on to their yougov shares are likely in for big profits within the next three weeks. A short squeeze and the inevitable rebound buy in will see the price rocket like it did on Friday last week.

Just an FYI on short positions, yougov likely has a larger amount of shorted stock than what is listed because last year the rules were changed. Any position under 0.2% is now invisible. But if you check yougov shares open for short positions since June, there were about 2.5-3% up for grabs, these were likely all taken on or around 20 June. This fact is probably the reason for the stock falling as hard as it did, 2.5-3% of the stock being sold by short sellers. Now, imagine them all trying to close their positions with the small amount of stock traded of yougov, or if the price starts to climb, and of course what if the original owns ask for the shares back (which they are legally allowed to do). We are heading for quite an interesting situation.

Anyway, just my thoughts, apologies for my long posts but they are worth the read.