Member Info for Saintge

Haha, I am sure yougov will do fine. On a side note and of course just my opinion, legal and general are in a worse place than yougov. It seems their current management aren't too sure how to grow the business which is why they are doing a share buy back and consolidating their factions. Yet their shares only dropped a little. It is still a stock I would buy at the right price but there is so much more they could have done with 200m in buy back and the money they are going to spend on restructuring parts of the business which were restructured not that long ago (if memory serves me right). They have a great business, hope they don't destroy it with poor management.

There is demand, we just have to wait, in any event once we get the FY24 accounts on 31 July I believe the stock will rocket up. If the statement was going to be poor I do not believe directors would have invested their own money into yougov shares, also if there was more bad news yougov would have included it with their profit warning. There is more I could say, but with just a small amount of research, it is clearly yougov isn't in a financially terrible situation, simply put yougov has pushed a little too hard for growth IMO which has caused a drop in profits. But the business is still strong and growing, with FY25 likely, very likely, to be their strongest year to date.

This isn't the place to discuss politics. However, the trash talk regarding the Conservative government shows a lack of understanding in relation to the last 4 years of global events. Regardless of what any national government did during and post covid, we were always going to experience inflation and economic down turn. Every country the world over, has experienced inflation and economic down turn. Locking up consumers and stopping companies from operating (which is what every national government did during covid and it is very likely what Labour would have done) created both high inflation and a persistently poor economic environment.

In the US, their stock markets have faired the same as the LSE, the only difference is the tech giants in the US have continued to grow. If you remove the large tech companies from the US stock market, they have averaged worse then many stock markets around the world.

Labour getting into power will see a little economic upturn because of people believing that our economic environment will change. But this is a fallacy, we will have this harsh economic environment for at least another year, then likely a few years of slow economic growth. Globally this will most likely be the picture regardless of the political parties that hold power. There is only so much a government (left or right of the spectrum) can do to overcome the national and international debts from covid, the lasting inflationary effects of covid and two large and ongoing wars, and of course the persistent supply chains issues which started with covid and is now affected by both of the wars in Ukraine and Palestine.

Lastly, people do not currently have spare money, that is the point of raising interest rates. The BoE increased interest rates to take excess money out of the economy in order to reduce inflation. This reduces inflation by reducing demand, inflation is caused when there is too much demand and not enough supply (there are others ways to cause inflation but this is the basic way and really the only thing the BoE can have an effect on). The average person isn't looking to invest in any stock market at the moment because they cant afford to. Perhaps, as well, they are worried about the current economic state national amd international and thus cautious about investing.

Another huge buy from a director, that is very positive. Good volume and the shares have trended upwards, another positive sign. I am not sure if you have read some of my analysis about yougov, but I do not believe that there are significant issues under the curtains. Almost 300k invested by directors evidences this.

Yougov, IMO, spent too much on acquisition growth (the CPB cost more than they thought to merge and the second acquisition cost at least 8m, this is money they cant declare as profit because it has been used), coupled with a slight decline caused by the harsh 23/24 economic environment, caused the profit warning. These points aren't issues to worry about, yougov has faired far better than many other companies over the last few years. Revenue growth year on year (including 2024). Some parts of a business will deline every now and than then, it is part of running a business, this is why you have multiple revenue streams. It seems to me, many investors do not understand business which is the foundation of good investing. Instead they focus on whatever tag word brokers are using. Yougov's business is strong.

Once we get the FY24 statement, yougov shares will rocket as invests will see yougov has had a good year but they spent a lot on growth. As an investor you want companies to work on growth. This is where we earn our money, through company growth. Not dividend payments, share buy backs or the business being over cautious.

I fully agree with your comment Dave. Not much to add; yougov should have released all negative news in its June profit warning, so that the FY24 statement will look more positive and be on 'target'. Yougov is robust, good liquidity, the drop in profits should be explained by reference to their acquisitions etc and going forward FY25 should be very positive as their acquisitions' revenue streams merge with their own and yougov's accounts are boosted by these combined profits, cost savings and crossover sales.

Yes, it really seemed it was going to move upwards but a number of price points were triggered, large auto sell offs come in. I think the change in direction will come next week, we are near the end of low volume low price sell offs, as the rest of the cheap shares are brought the price should increase upwards. Also I have a feeling we will get a few positive analysis reviews next week to encourage buyers over sellers, so that the brokers can make more money. Brokers earn more when stocks are being traded in these high volumes, if the sell off ends, the brokers will need lots of buyers to continue to earn from high volume trading. The brokers always win haha.

Fair comment, free is never free, and we shouldn't expect much if something is free.

I agree, the presumption is that they have been cautious in their predicted profits and it should come in somewhere around the mid to top point.

If it doesn't fall in the range they have given, 41-44m, either it will be positive as it achieves higher profits than predicted (this would be great for yougov, but my money is on it ending somewhere in the range given) or it will fall short (this would clearly reflect bigger issues at yougov, although I do not think this is likely). Regardless, within a month we will know. IMO: I believe yougov will trend upwards after or during next week until July 31, it should hit somewhere between 500p to 600p before July 31. Then if the FY24 statement is positive, yougov's shares should explode back to 800p or higher. If the statement is negative, it will either drop back to 400p or hold 500p-600p ish (it really depends if the negative news is short term and isolated to 24, or more mid term with sticky issues).

But the reasons I believe the FY24 statement will be positive rather than negative are: 1) the director invested 100k, he is in a position to know if future news will be poor and if he has decided to invest the outlook is good (he wouldnt put £1 of his money into yougov shares if he believed it wouldnt recover or future news was trending down). 2) the profit warning was given just over one month before the FY24 accounts, yougov should know with a greater degree of certainty what their profits will be and their prediction of 41-44m should be very accurate. 3) all negative news should have been given in the profit warning with the FY24 statement being positive to move forward.

Time will tell, and yes it is interesting speculating.

Melab, this is exactly what I am talking about. All the brokers seem to be in on the scam, trash a company without facts short it or buy in after it drops.

Not one broker talked about the earning power of the CPB or the fact that their accounts (profits) are not fully merged yet. They haven't talked about the second acquisition made by yougov and how it is this cost which has likely lowered profits and caused the profit warning (side note, this isn't bad, growing a company isn't wrong). They haven't even mentioned the fact yougov is in the minority of companies globally which has made strong profits 23/24. Most companies have lost money, reduced operations, fired lots of staff, cut dividend payments etc. Yougov has not.

Anyway, this is why I think everyone should do their own research. Can't trust the majority of brokers or advisors. Just my opinion. Besides the research costs nothing, and you might make more money like I have. I am 100 percent certain yougov will recover to somewhere between 600-800. But that is my view.

As I said, I would like to see more money invested from the directors. 3m sell off is a lot but it is still early days, directors may buy more. As I said, I only tried to offer a full view of the company, a view which should have been offered by professional brokers/advisors but sadly was not. Instead it seems they have all said debt is bad (which it really isnt) and lower profits bad (even though the profits dip is fully explainable, due to expanding the company) so sell sell and do not buy. One might even say it seems like they have all bet against yougov to line their pockets.

There are a few issues with your analysis. First, yougov's accounts are all public, if there was something worse to come (besides the drop in profit) it would be visible from their accounts and general trading (also a director wouldn't have invested 100k of their own money).

Second, I am not asking you to view yougov with rose tinted glasses, but I have offered a fair analysis from hours of research on yougov, its trading and its clients. If you hold a contrary view, please outline a full analysis providing reasons and facts as I have done. For example, I am positive that most investors of yougov were not aware of the profitability of the CPB yougov acquired. The CPB generated 24m in profits FY23, compared with yougov's 45m. This is exactly the sort of thing you want a company to do if you are invested in it. It literally increased its profits by more than 50 percent with one move, these profits will be fully merged with yougov's accounts by 2025.

Third, it should make at least 41m (their lowest expected profits is normally the worst case scenario). Moreover, as I have stated (which you can independently verify from low level research on yougov) the drop in profits seems to be predominantly a consequence of their second acquisition, KnowledgeHound, as it cost 6.2m to purchase and would have had at least 1-2m in other costs. The secondary factors for the dip in profits are: the acquisition and merger of the CPB with the merger costing more than yougov expected (which happens more often than not in business) and a weak economy. The first thing companies do in a weak economy is reduce advertising and marketing which is really what yougov is used for; data and research to find or attract clients/consumers. Lastly when their last lot of accounts were released yougov would not have noted the purchase of KnowledgeHound on their accounts (this is clearly the main reason for the drop in profits and why we got a profit warning).

You do not have to buy yougov shares nor hold them if you already own some. But yougov truly is in a healthy shape, there is nothing to worry about. At 41m profit, they will still provide dividend payments, they can increase liquidity (cash on hand - they currently hold over 51m cash, which really isn't a sign of a weak company), pay down their debt and continue to grow in 25. From 25 both the profits from the two businesses they acquired will be fully merged with their accounts (we are likely to see profits around 70m give or take a few m).

In closing, yougov is a solid buy or hold. Most of the analysis offered by others simply says 'profits down and they have debt' bad company so sell and don't buy. This is poor analysis, simply do some research and you will understand why that level of analysis is wrong. In my previous post, I have done the research and offered fully reasoned and evidence analysis. You pick which you believe, have a Google!

Yougov as a company looks a really strong investment. The director investing 100k evidences faith in the business, I would have liked to have seen more invested but 100k is a significant sum of money and of course other directors may invest more next week.

Notwithstanding the profit warning, yougov are on track to make 41-44m which is almost identical to the 45m profit from FY23. Moreover, it is notable that although the profits are the same, yougov has increased revenue and grown the business in 24. The reduction in profits seems to be mainly a consequence of their acquisition of two companies. These acquisitions are not a negative, from my research they are both great investments which will being in stronger future profits.

The companies brought were:

1) GFK's consumer panel business (CPB) which generated profits of 24m in FY23, a little over half of what yougov generated in profits during the same time period (profits: CPB 24m and Yougov 45m). The CPB also enables joint yearly cost savings of at least 4m, but from my research it will most likely be around 5-6m in yearly savings.

The CPB has retained its existing clients and seems to have experienced healthy growth under yougov.

On a side note, a percentage of the profits from the CPB will not show on yougov's accounts until 25 when their profits will be fully merged. It is also expected from 25 that a greater number of clients will buy cross over services from the different business streams. Thus enabling higher revenue and stronger profits.

This acquisition is why yougov now holds 200m of debt but as per yougov's jan24 statement and from their combined profits, yougov should be able to pay off this debt within 3 to 5 years without affecting liquidity, dividend payments or the general growth of yougov. Yougov retains more than 51m in cash, this healthy liquidity will enable yougov to push forward in 25 and strive for even more growth opportunities.

Lastly, debt is not a reason to be put off a company, the vast majority of modern businesses have debt. Telse holds 10b, Coca-Cola has a massive 45b and yougov's competitors have debts of around 200-500m which were not acquired after making positive growth investments like yougov buying the CPB. Surveymonkey, for example, has debts of just under 200m and Ipsos holds 400m of debt.

2) KnowledgeHound which was brought for 6.2m (likely the main reason for the dip in profits), generated profits of 2.1m in FY23 and has grown significantly under yougov.

Yougov seems well positioned to experience record growth in 25 and beyond. The profit warning is explained by and well covered from yougov's recent acquisitions. This blip in yougov's share price will be forgotten within a year, recovery will be mostly complete by or around the July FY24 statement and it is expected that by the July FY25 statement yougov will have reached new highs in their share price.

The only question that remains is whether or not you will buy yougov shar

Yougov really is cheap. I know we are a month off of the FY24 accounts, but even with the profit warning, they are likely to look very healthy. Few companies are able to go through the last few years and still make big profits like yougov has. The slight dip in profits is fully understandable, with all the issues being overcome by 25.

Yougov will recover, and within a few years if the cpb pays off the way it seems it will, yougov will likes reach new all time highs.

The director buys 100k in shares. Yougov is so cheap at the moment. Has anyone looked at their accounts for fy23 and the current statements for 24 read with the profit warning. Yougov has generated more revenue in 24 than in 23. The acquisition, high inflation and general economic down turn are the reasons for yougov making similar profits in 24 as fy23. But, and I will say it again, revenue is up! The acquisition is complete and the economy should cool off in 25, I would expect very big profits from 25 onwards.

Lastly, has anyone actually bothered to look at the GfK's Consumer Panel Business yougov acquired? It seems a pretty good investment, which alines nicely with yougov. It enables at least 5m in cost savings as mainy of their costs overlap, it earned 24m in profits FY22, it has a robust client list which it seems have all stayed with the business since changing owners and it held more than 53m in assets just before it was acquired. Moving forward, the new business and yougov's current interests combined profits, which will not be joined properly until 25, could easily push yougov's post tax profits near the 70m mark. Moreover, enable the company to easily reach the 100m mark within the next 3 to 5 years.

Yougov is still very likely to pay dividends this year, perhaps even with a small move upwards. And it should be able to pay off the debt it owes within the next fives years, whilst expanding, paying dividends and retaining strong liquidity.

If I could post an ss I would. It seems like a few after hours trades have gone through. But I think someone was trying to buy a very large position and was not able to. Perhaps a short position was trying to be closed. Who knows haha. Regardless, today was good.

Lol, someone is trying their best to buy shares after hours but can't find anyone, not even at 472p per share. So far no after hours trades have been completed. 472p per shares... hahaha

I 100 percent agree with this. The stocks have fallen enough without the actual company being in the red, that a take over by a big tech firm makes a lot of sense.

If this had been pre-2023 it would have already happened or at the very least been aired in public.

Regardless if someone asks to buy yougov shares for 350p, there needs to be a seller at that price. I could list my shares for 999p, it does not mean they will sell. Over the next 7 days we will see were the price lands. If short sellers can covet their positions. If the stock will recover.

Regardless if someone asks to buy yougov shares for 350p, there n

It is simple, short sellers have failed to take into account the general low volume of floting shares in yougov. No tall tales.

Yougov may very well go below 400p tomorrow or even Friday. But short sellers are going to have a diffcult time getting hold of enough shares to close their positions.

I got into yougov at a very generous price, I am more than happy to hold for the next few years if that is how long it takes to recover. At the price I paid and volume brought, i will make a handsome profit, providing a short seller can offer me enough money to encourage the ending of my position so that they may close their short position.

Opportunities like this represented by the yougov price crash are rare. These are the opportunities that make a 1m portfolio; buying a strong company like yougov for nearly 400p a share when it is clearly worth around 1000p a share. Bargain!

I have put my money where my mouth is, so to speak. I am happy to sit here and watch the next week of so play out. Only time will tell if short sellers can close their positions and where the yougov share price will end.

May the best anonymous win.

It appears we are in agreement. Yougov is a healthy company, with great future prospects. Making a profit of 41m to 44m is excellent news given the economic environment of the last 12 months of trading.

The large volume of shares has dried up and it seems likely the price will start to recover.