How much oil might the BFF hold & what might that be worth?27 Apr 2021 12:33
Looking at the maps used in last weeks webinar and the area circled by Bob ( Ok, crudely circled but can give a rough idea to hang some numbers on).
The circled Theta West area looks to be (using the scale on the map as best I could) some 15,873yds x 18,095yds = 287,221,935 sq yds
and at 600ft thick at Talitha #A (with webinar comment that in places it thickens to ~1,000ft)
at 600ft ie using 200yds that gives a reservoir volume of ~57,444million cu yds.
If we 'pencil in' say just 10% oil saturation that gives 5,744.4million cu yds of oil in place
and at 1 cu yd equaling 4.8barrels of oil, that gives some 27,573.3million bbls oil in place
If we managed a fairly conservative 15% recovery of the oip then recoverable resource is ~4.1 billion bbls
If we then add in a little for the corner of Talitha which Bob's circle encompassed, it's a further area of some ~12,063yds x 4,761yds x 600ft (ie 200yds) thick = 11,486million cu yds of reservoir
10% saturation gives 1,148.6mil cu yds oip = 5,513.2million bbls oip and
at 15% recovery would yield 172million cu yds of oil = 826.99mil bbls recoverable
So, combining these two areas of the BFF, assuming just 10% oil saturation and 15% recovery, (and if my maths and reasoning are right) we could be looking to see an oip of around 33,08 billion bbls and a recoverable resource in the region of 4.96 billion bbls
If we then asign a moderate NPV10 of $7.5 per barrel then for just the BFF I get an NPV10 of ~ $37.2 billion ~ £26.5billion.
And that was at 15% recovery - look what ConocoPhillips say about Prudhoe Bay :
'When production started at the Prudhoe Bay field, the recovery factor for the 25 billion barrels of oil in place was expected to reach 40 percent. Today, using new technologies, we have increased that estimate to more than 60 percent.'
https://alaska.conocophillips.com/who-we-are/alaska-operations/greater-prudhoe-bay/
Now that would be nice!
My thoughts & figures. As always DYOR
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