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Yes, to my mind, 'eye-watering' amounts and Roger Young certainly appears to really 'know his onions'.
Be good to watch that through again, when it's available.
DYOR.

Should be interesting to hear co-presenter, Roger Young: Chief Technology Officer at eSeis, at this evening's Webinar.

Monday 19Oct2020 at 7pm London time.
Registration at:
https://www.bigmarker.com/share-talk/Investor-Presentation-and-Q-A-Session-Talitha-Project-Kuparuk-Resource-Upgrade-Company-Overview/

Where's the Oct 21st Webinar info? - I obviously missed reading that.

https://www.energymixreport.com/nigeria-to-continue-price-control-of-gas-in-the-new-pib-minister/

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:372801/mmsi:311020200/imo:9168946/vessel:NAVION_OCEANIA

... sounds an interesting possibility – choosing the best gas or gas mixture to combine with the oil – then, not only does this give pressure support to the reservoir, but it combines with the oil and reduces the oil’s viscosity, so giving it a more even chance to flow to the well bore in the ‘contest’ against the lower viscosity water.

And page 61 shows water handling of 65k BWPD !

Rather makes our wells look a bit parched.

The Pharos Vietnam setup and complexity appears to rather dwarfs ours, for HUR 6 & 7z
Pharos Energy Cap Mkts Day Presentation 2019 Page 59:
https://www.pharos.energy/media/y0vnlbjf/pharos-capital-markets-day-presentation-29-october-2019.pdf

Anyone in the vicinity of the Aoka Mizu reported a visual on any flaring yet?
Be nice to know from someone if production had resumed.

So, how are we to interpret this BHP drop to fit in with what was said re the Cap Mkts Day on 27April2020, which then commented as getting more pressure support for the wells ie. the rate of pressure drop was reducing , as appears to be shown in the Edison exhibit 1 diagram - it saying: rate of pressure decline continuing to reduce over time.
Cap Mkts Day 27April2020 extract:
"... recent pressure decline trends are consistent with a minimum in-place volume of around half a billion barrels. This suggests that the wells are obtaining more pressure support with increased production, progressively 'seeing' more of the reservoir. This additional pressure support is attributed both to connections with more distant volumes of the reservoir, and slower feed-in from micro-fractures within the dual porosity system. The net effect is that the wells are accessing more volume with time, and have yet to reach a stable decline rate from which ultimate reservoir size can be estimated."

"Bretana oil production recommenced on July 15, 2020 and achieved over 12,000 bopd when all seven wells were online. "

"The inquiry is progressing and favorable discussions between the Government of Peru and the communities has resulted in the protestors allowing operations at the ONP to restart this week.
The Company expects that it will be able to recommence oil production at Bretana by the end of August 2020"

and also, could be useful/informative:

"on August 19, 2020, an updated corporate presentation will be available on the Company's website at www.petrotal-corp.com ."

Moor

As I understand it the reason the OGA are against the tieback of Lincoln Crestal is that it (I believe) dips just below structural closure. If it had been all within structural closure then the exact extent of the field from which it will produce is known - and everyone is happy with that. But if you want to produce from below structural closure then they need to know the extent of the field and that requires knowing the OWC depth - hence the OGA's requirement for a commitment vertical well on Lincoln, to define that. That's my take on it, anyway - let's see what others have to say.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/08/11/fg-eyes-improved-gas-investment/

At the CPR recovery rate of 22.5% I make that as being 112.5 million barrels recoverable from Lancaster.
And at 17,000 bopd that's 17,000bbls produced for 6,617 days or 18 years.
The figure of half a billion barrels comes from the
27Apr2020: Cap Mkts Day
"The Lancaster Early Production System ("Lancaster EPS")
...recent pressure decline trends are consistent with a minimum in-place volume of around half a billion barrels."

Maybe the various data gathering tools, that were designed for when drilling in sedimentary reservoirs - maybe they're not so suitable and lack fidelity when trying to interpret drilling through a fractured granite reservoir. After all - if drilling sandstone, at the owc point its a pretty dramatic change from oil between all the sand grains to it being water. In granite the owc, where the drill happens to pierces, may well be a many metres thick, solid chunk of rock with very little fracturing and so little indication of an oil to water transition.

So, can there really now be a " reasonable probability " that the data gathered from the 7 vertical pilot well (and as you can see from the RNS extract below, there was a lot of data from numerous tests) - can all this now be considered as probably wrong?

- so, a bit of history for newcomers to HUR: this part of the RNS is for the vertical 7 well, which was later sidetracked to give the 7z horizontal production well -

" RNS Number : 1708W
Hurricane Energy PLC
07 February 2017
Results of Further Technical Analysis of Lancaster 7.....

......The previously published minimum oil down to from the Lancaster 205/21a-7 well of 1,620m TVDSS has now been revised to a best technical case oil water contact of 1,678m TVDSS, with an associated hydrocarbon column height in excess of 670m TVDSS.

This revised interpretation is based on the integration of wireline sample oil analysis, wireline logs, gas chromatography data, sidewall cores and the integration of Lancaster pressure and fluid data.

The revised OWC (1,678m TVDSS) can be correlated with the Company's previously held high case OWC from the 205/21a-4 well (drilled in 2009).
Consequently, the Company believes that the revised 205/21a-7 OWC can be treated as a flat OWC for the Lancaster field.

As such, the Company believes that its previous management resource guidance for the Lancaster field being in excess of 300 million barrels is conservative........ "

And a link for those interested in the deeper history and geology of HUR:

https://pgc.lyellcollection.org/content/8/1/385

The Oleoducto Nor Peruano (ONP), which transports oil extracted from several wells in the Amazon to the Pacific Ocean, returned to pumping crude oil on Saturday after three months without functioning due to the COVID-19 crisis.

https://atalayar.com/en/content/peruvian-oil-pipeline-pumps-oil-again-after-three-months-stopped

Yes, that said - have you noticed how well the road traffic appears to have returned pretty much to normal - and so one would surmise, a return demand for oil.
Just need the blue touch-paper relighting........ anyway, looks like they finally got the match to stay lit for HUR.

I think I may have pieced together what could be happening with the Lincoln conundrum:
why might they have to plug & abandon the already drilled, and successfully flow tested, Lincoln Crestal well in favour of drilling a more shallow production well on Lincoln. And/or why the need for a commitment vertical well?

I believe this has all to do with the need for a production well to be located in a reservoir for which the OGA have been advised of its field determination area ie. what is its 'footprint area' and does it encroach on someone else's neighboring block.

And the figures I've looked at suggest that the Crestal well is just below Lincoln structural closure (the depth of structural closure of the reservoir being determined from the seismic geology data).
Since for a well below structural closure to become a producer would require a field determination for the footprint of that below structural closure reservoir, there then arises the need to know the oil water contact depth to be able to map out this footprint - and hence the need for a Lincoln vertical commitment well, which once drilled and the OWC defined, allows the field area determination to be made - then permission to produce from that well should be forthcoming.

The alternative is apply for a field determination just down to the structural closure (an area currently known from interpretation of seismic geological data) - if accepted by the OGA then a production well needs to be one residing wholly within the 3D space of the structural closure - hence, with this option, the need to P&A the current Crestal well and drill a more shallow horizontal Lincoln well for tie-back to the Aoka Mizu and subsequent production.

All my own guesswork - so as always, do your own research.

The vertical well results have considerable data to show we have oil down to a depth way below the horizontal producing wells and due to the incredibly high productive index as a result of the high connectivity of the reservoir fracture system, even when producing 15,000bopd it should only, for example, lift water some 55.6 metres for from 7Z well - (based on a 7Z well PI of 190 stb/d/psi and from the fact water lifts 0.705metres per 1psi pressure drop ), and since the OWC / aquifer is some 265metres metres lower than the 7Z well, it looks to be a big safety margin. [And the 6 well has a similarly high PI (productivity index) of 205stb/d/psi - that's barrels per day, per 1 pound down hole pressure drop. These are apparently among the highest oil well Productivity Indexes in the world].
So, my thought is, we could have a ‘dead-end down' pocket of trapped (perched) water sitting close below the 7Z well – close enough for that pocket to undergo, in effect, localized conning. So, not from the aquafer, but from another nearby, much higher, water pocket. And that could be what we're seeing.
And, of course, as there is now a nicely cleaned up fissure connection between the heels of wells 6 and 7Z – when the 6 is producing ( especially when producing on its own) it can see the same water source(s) as the 7Z can - they’re just a bit further away than they are for the 7Z well, so water gets to the 6, but at a lower rate.
The FPSO's Produced water handling is shown as an impressive 20,000bpd, even so, it would obviously be really nice for us all if the perched water pockets showed signs of emptying some time pretty soon.

Just my thoughts, as always DYOR. Any other possible reservoir models out there?