Member Info for Sageman

HeadingNorth derampers make me laugh! The issue with the delisting is that FTSE250 trackers will be forced sellers and active fund managers will sell in anticipation. Nothing to do with “conmen”. Post rights issue and Covid balance sheet is better and trade good. Long term prospects are good but short term the sp will probably struggle.

50% + gain in the last 2 months of 2023. There was always going to be some inevitable profit taking. This is actually quite healthy. I sold the bulk of mine over £6 and expect to buy them back and I suspect others will follow suit. GLA

I read the RNS , interesting! The missing bit was why has the production been so poor? If the production had been good the JV partner would have been biting or hand off. I have my own theory abut waxing but the silence as to the reason for the lack of flow is deafening.

You would have thought that the BOD would have sent every shareholder a complimentary tube of KY before issuing the December RNS’s…😂 We have all been shafted and sadly it is likely that position will not alter.

I thought I had seen it all but this has shocked me. I previously had a rule where I invested 1% of my portfolio in a single share with a max additional 1% to average down and no more than 10% in individual stocks with the balance in trackers. I have cut those numbers by 50%. It has also made me check out trackers more and they can be pretty sexy as can Investment trusts trading at deep discounts. Gold ETF's, Biotech, emerging markets ,infrastructure , Value socks eg UBS FTSE RAFI developed 2000, equal weight S&P. India. COPL hurts but we can all learn from it. GLA

Lots of posts about FTSE100. Great that people realise that diversification is crucial to any investment strategy but there is a whole wide world of indices to track and it is an intellectual challenge deciding which to go for and which to avoid. FTSE100 up less than 4% this year whilst S&P 500 up nearly 30% . Others are up far more , others are negative. You can track sectors (eg energy and health) , buy gold EtFs and/or focus on countries eg India. You can even play asset classes eg gilts (long, medium or short duration) and reits. So in contrast to some of the comments by certain posters real investment has little to do with the likes of COPL. This was always a punt with money you could afford to lose. Proper investment is about research, tax and diversification. Enjoy.

I was trying to do a back of an envelope calculation of assets minus liabilities (excluding the oil). I got to circa 100m for plant etc and circa 70m for creditors/loans etc. The gas I believe was at one time valued at circa 50m and the oil? Well anyone’s guess on the oil. Numbers have been so vague that I am unable to be accurate but my conclusion was that even in a fire sale it must be worth more than the current 2-3m mcap. I am holding but would welcome anyones more accurate guesses.

Doc, the ineptitude of our team is to their eternal shame. There are other operators in the region extracting commercially. Buying the company outright and thereafter not having to tolerate our clowns would I am sure be attractive to someone. The JV partner clearly thought our team were clueless. PS don’t you just hate de-rampers!

Antha, the debt mountain you refer to is small compared to the reserves.

Sp says mcap only 3.3m. Even in a fire sale it has to be worth more than that. Consider what we paid for CUDA. I have switched from optimism to pragmatism. From here 3 0r 4p would be a result. It would get me half my original investment back. I simply do not believe this is worth nothing. A major with deep pockets and know how could surely make decent money here whilst not being prepared to do work with our existing team. GLA

Our mcap is £3m. We have seen fire sale prices before - like when we bought CUDA at bargain knock down rates. The dream for me has gone but the pain may yet be mitigated. Aside from financials my concern remains around waxing - the analalogy is a furred up artery. Cold weather exacerbates the problem. I will continue to hold.

I am not smug. I have learned through bitter experience. I am fed up with COPL and very angry. But this was always a high risk gamble. If you lose your shirt down the casino you have to take responsibility. Investing is not gambling. Others here have the same learning to do that I had and normally it takes a loss like this. Mine was Angel mining. A gold mine. They did their research with gold at circa $400. You would think that at $1500 a monkey would make money but they went bust. A lot like here. You look at the size of the oil reserve and the mcap and you think surely this has to be worth more than this …but here we are. GLA

Actually this is not investing. This is gambling. I have lost in total 2% of my portfolio on this and despite today my portfolio has hit an all time high today. Long before recent price action this had dwindled to circa 0.25% of my portfolio so recent moves have been more than offset by action in the rest of my portfolio. Investing is about diversification and tax efficiency. I hold 90% in trackers and only 10% in individual shares. It keeps me sane and means I sleep at night. A 60/40 equity and bond portfolio is recommended for a reason. So, I had a gamble. I am very angry at what has happened here but I am financially fine. GLA

People that invested immediately following JV failure have lost 75% in 2 days. Thank god bitter experience and discipline stoped me exceeding my 2% maximum investment rule. This is toast. We have all lost out on the dream but surely it is worth more than the current mcap. I have always wondered if the waxing problem had been solved…clearly not!

Glad I kept my discipline and didn't average down yesterday!

The speculation as to the cause of the JV being terminated is inevitable but normally people know things. Also they would have known that the SP would tank in the absence of a positive explanation. Accordingly if there was something positive to say I suspect it would have been said. For me it is all about the production numbers now. I just hope that waxing is not an issue. Fortunately since the initial investment was only 2% of my portfolio and has long since tanked I am therefore not fussed. The broad based rally in Bonds and equities still means my portfolio is at a high . I hope that others here are similarly placed whilst being genuinely sorry for the balls deep brigade. GLA

Investing requires discipline. I wanted to average down but I have a rule initially invest max 1% of portfolio and only another 1% max to average down. This rule is the result of bitter experience. Some here are balls deep and for them today is terrible. For me it is just annoying. GLA

Doc I am not super rampy and can read both positives and negatives and make up my own mind. This is a very high risk stock due to events happening behind the scenes that we are not party too. But to use SXX in the context of COPL ( for anyone who knows about SXX) is a pretty poor choice. I am long here with a B/E of 7.5. It is 2% of my portfolio so I can afford to be relaxed. FWIW I believe this has every chance of swinging into profit but am not even going to guess at a potential SP.

FWIW this is nothing like SXX which required a huge feat of engineering and a huge capital injection with years before 1st production. In contrast this is already producing and the upfront need for capex prior to uplift in production is a pittance in contrast. Pathetic de-ramp.

What the posts prove is that the risk ‘reward potential here is massive. Black stout is suggesting a potential 300 fold increase. A 5 to 10 fold increase would see many holders here back in the black. I don’t believe that I have every held a share with such potential but it is very high risk. My own hopes are less optimistic with an MCAP of circa 250m. Either way fingers crossed.

I wondered about that sentence too guitar.