Member Info for Sageman

FWIW I am concentrating on the mcap vs the assets as opposed to the SP. 16m reflects a fire sale. I think that we have paid a high price for Art deliberately doing minimum maintenance to buy CUDA cheap and being greedy. The wells have taken longer to turn around than he thought leading to wonga finance. If we can get production to going concern basis and beyond then our JV partner will then pay a fair rate. Deals of this nature do take a lot of time. A simple question. What is the value of proven OIP? Even at £1 a barrel the mcap would soar and with it the sp. My B/E is circa 10p which only relates to a MCAP of circa 90m so yes I am underwater but I am pretty relaxed ( This is 2% of my portfolio). GLA

To a large extent I am more interested in our MCAP than our current SP. We potentially have $1bn barrels of oil but what is the value? Basically it is down to how fast it can be extracted and the cost. In terms of discounted cash flow a barrel of oil today is worth far more than a barrel of oil in 40 years time. Our issue is we are short on cash, have had waxing and pressure issues and are not producing oil fast enough to breakeven hence the financing which has decimated the sp. The million $ question is can we get to B/E through increased flow and then beyond. If so then a major could also do so. The difference is that they would be able to finance a massive increase in wells such that the oil is extracted far quicker. The increased of extraction instantly increases NPV and that is the value of the JV. Money and increased extraction rate of oil.

So here we are today on the cusp of news which is actually make or break. If we can get above B/E oil flow then there will not be a fire sale and a JV partner will pay a fair price. Our Mcap is circa 15m. It could easily be many multiples of this if production increases and we get the JV. For me this is binary we either fail and get very little or we multi bag. I see the odds as 50/50. You don't normally get the opportunity to multibag with a 50/50. Good luck all

Trans. It was you who is insulting and I am no troll!

Transhaven, I am a NED! We need credibility and technical know how. The right NED will bring precisely that to the table at a fraction of the cost of a full time ED. A NED does not execute (perform the role). However, a NED will help formulate the strategy, check it is robust and then hold the executives whose job it is to carry out the strategy to account. A NED will kick the tyres. IT would be a foolish CEO/board to call in an independent NED who knew the business inside out if they were acting inappropriately, and that is why a respected NED brings credibility.

Transhaven thanks for confirming that you know very little about the role of a NED! A NED does not execute policy but is as legally liable as an executive director. NED’s are chiefly involved at board level regarding strategy, risk and governance. They are typically very experienced and are there to kick the tyres. Larger companies and investors like to see NED’S at board level as a NED is independent and adds credibility. Completely what is needed for a company like COPL where ART had destroyed investor confidence. I would imagine that the JV partner has insisted on it. A NED will typically have up to 4 NED positions it will be interesting who is chosen and which other companies they are involved with.

K3, you are 100% correct. The market is concerned with current debt and cashflow now is crucial. As I said BP has a poor grasp on financials!

Push when you 1st came here spouting positivity I said that whilst you understood engineering you didn’t understand Angus and had a poor grasp of finances. As the months have progressed you have become increasingly negative. However, you still don’t understand finances. This is a geared play on gas. If gas prices continue to rise the Sp will eventually follow in spite of the wider Angus issues.

Offy, I get that but normally a pile of cash helps in most circumstances. The cash is starting to roll in so why is the sp falling? There comes a time when people say show me the money. You show them the money and all is good, if you don’t you have a problem. I am puzzled.

This makes little sense as posters say. Gas is now at circa 133. Our production is stable and on point. Angus should have strong cash flow at these levels yet the sp falls. Something is rotten but what?

Panama at least Art invested substantial amounts of his own money unlike SS at UDOG. My issue with production here has always been around waxing particularly in cold weather. I am not an expert but no one has yet convinced me that this issue has been resolved. In the meantime I am long. I bought another 1m shares yesterday in 2 500k tranches to average down. Fingers crossed.

Maz, what drivel! We fell to circa 7.5p in a totally different environment to what we are in today. Debt is lower and the oil price is stronger. We are not in danger of collapse. Now jog on - shorter.

The disconnect between the mcap of 13m and the assets in the ground is astonishing. Essentially we are priced to fail. To me this is binary. If we increase production and we get a JV this multibags or we go into liquidation and we get next to nothing. I am long and in the multi bag camp but either scenario is likely. So pay your money and make your choice. This is ultra high risk so gamble accordingly (it is not investing due to lies and lack of transparency) . Also I would say a word of warning to the smug traders. If the trend is down it is very difficult to win as people with 88e and UKOG have found to their cost.

Tullow are still forecasting using $80 per barrel. Current oil price is $92. At 60,000 BOPD that makes a lot of difference. I have seen a number of forecasts at $100 pb. Hedging etc will make a difference but as posters say if oil keeps going up ultimately so will Tullow.

FWIW I sat through a presentation about VCT’s angel funding, private equity funding , Seed capital etc. Depending where the company is positioned on their journey and risk the 3-10 times multiple typically always applies. Imagine a world where lots of companies want funding so the investors can choose where to invest. In such a world the expected returns become normalised for level of risk. Projects that don’t have those expected outcomes just don’t get funded (other than by banks etc).

Hmmm interesting comments . I have no mining experience but have spent my entire career in financial services. Institutional private equity money is typically looking for 3-10 times return with a 5 year investment horizon depending at which stage the investment is made (and therefore the risk). They look at the numbers very closely and would be very sceptical here. They have access to far more information than a PI . Throw in the JV factor and perhaps they are looking at a shorter timescale potentially so perhaps willing to consider 3 x return next year. Accordingly, I believe that 12p is a minimum target for next year. All IMHO DYOR

Buy the rumour sell the fact or sell the rumour buy the fact. Tullow has had a good run up to this results so a bit of profit taking ahead of results. Having dipped prior to results decent results should lift the price. GLA

My Takeaways:

Glad this done at 4p rather than 1p.

Art moved to JV and geology (what he is good at)

New CEO = Better comms/trust

Funded through to q1 2024

JV looks nailed on but very complex

JV with industry leader

Costs reduced but await production uplift

Overall good result. ALL IMHO

One final thought Singie did you ever watch yes minister? The civil service run the U.K. not the government. Now just imagine how annoyed you would be if you were a senior civil servant planning to move to Brussels fo r a few years prior to retirement. So final salary pension. 150k salary uplifted to 250k ( so all past years now at 250k). Then after retirement the pension tax rate wherever you live is reduced. I advised a civil servant literally livid that they would pay normal U.K. tax on their uplifted pension post Brexit. A few extra questions. Who compiled the figures that said the U.K. was doing worse than it is? Who took the pictures at number 10 during lockdown?

Singie, if I was to guess you come from London. This is the home of the liberal elite. Those who know what is right for everyone and have better standards than the rest of us and so far up their own backsides even a colonoscopy would fail to reach them! I could have an intellectual conversation with you as to why Brexit is within the logic of history. I remember listening to a professor in the mid 80’s telling me why the United States of Europe would not work since without true distribution of wealth the rich (Germany) would get richer and the poor (the Mediterranean states) would get poorer. I could tell you that thenUK gott wealthy by not being part of Europe ( Navy = Armada, Trafalgar = control of seas = trade) . I could tell you that much of the EU is based of Napoleonic laws ( but he didn’t like us). We are the 5th wealthiest nation on earth. If we can’t row our own both god help the circa 200 countries with a smaller GDP than ours. Has Brexit failed? Actually too early to say.

Without wishing to be rude it is currently not possible to work out NPV because we don’t know the extraction rate. However, what we do know is that a JV massively increases extraction rate and NPV. Lots of room for speculation here.