Member Info for sadoldgit

Good evening Steadydanny,
We know nothing of our stated on going discussions . Much positive news we await. sweet FA we can do in the meantime.
The element of doubt has crept into some peoples minds.

The only thing I will add is. Sareum must be extremely confident of SDC1801 phase 1 clinical trial outcome as pushing SDC1802 into clinical trials. Both are TYk2 compounds, each with an optimum amount of Jak1.

Silence is golden I feel.

Regards and a happy and prosperous 2022 to you and all invested here.

Cobradan, good evening. Much will depend on the amount of money that Sareum intend to raise.
Take into consideration, that this funding is for progressing our compounds through clinical trials and not debt.

Regards

Yes that is correct Seawolf.
Sareum have funds to take 1801 through phase 1 as far as understand. Sooner or later considerable funding will be required to further development beyond phase 1 clinical trials..

It was and far as I know sareums intention to on license at late preclinical or early clinical.

It would not be prudent of them to continue without a significant raising of funds, They cannot live in the hope that Sierra Oncology will make a milestone payment or an interested pharma will make a mutually satisfactory contractual agreement. In essence it removes the reliance of receiving a milestone payment from Sierra Oncology. They have dragged their heels for the past 2 years and that is puting it mildly. All their funds has been focused on Momoletonib. I have my doubts about momoletonib and it may prove to be a success when used as a combination therapy with SRA515. I take it you are aware that Momoletonib had previously failed in a phase 3 trial as inferior results compared to the then available BAT.

We await tox results which should be at least good. A pharma will be very much aware that at this moment in time we cannot continue to stage 2 trials. In effect our funds although healthy at the moment, are not sufficient medium term.

A pharma will hold the upper hand unless we can demonstrate we have sufficient funding to continue development on our own. In effect we will be selling for what Tim and co believe their compounds are worth and not what a pharma thinks he can knock it down to. Every advancement and milestone made, then the price goes up.

They will be aware that we have raised funding of 6 million in in 2021. They will also be aware that we are also seeking significant funding to continue development to later stages. That on its own will blow their line of negotiating a price based on, you need us as you do not have funding to continue.

Significant up front payment is what is required, sufficient maybe to take 1802 into am maybe through phase 3 clinical trials.

I would hasten to add that I believe there are ongoing later stage informal negotiations. Even more important that we demonstrate we can, if need arise to be pay for our own development.

I do not think it will be many moons before a deal is stuck and we cannot afford to be in a weak negotiating position.

Regards

.

A brilliant post HBD,

It also demonstrates to potential pharmaceutical companies that we are in discussions with 'on licensing' or partnerships that we have the ability to secure funding, not by borrowing. It is a further tool we have with regards negotiations.

Regards

Lloyds has a market cap of 33.6 billion should we take 48p per share and 70 billion shares in issue.
We have a market cap of circa 175 million should we take a figure of 3.5 billion shares in issue.
They have 20 times as many shares as Sareum. The market cap of Lloyds, is approximately 200 times greater than Sareum.

Answer me please as to why having 70 billion shares is having too many at 47 p per share. Would you advise Lloyds to consolidate in this instance if they have too many shares as you see it? Should also in this instance all companies have the same number of shares issued, irrespective of market cap?
Lloyds bank do not need to raise funds, Sareum do.

Consolidation on its own has no effect on market cap. Further to consolidation, should the need arise to raise more funds then this is the point that can effectively make a difference .
Consolidation can be rather ignorantly frowned upon by many( yes the mm's will take notice of this). If issuance of new shares following consolidation is used to pay off debt, then indeed, it does not look well, as normally debt follows debt as the reason they are in debt in the first place has not been resolved. A struggling, desperate company is then perceived and subsequent further SP fall as a result of market sentiment.

The funding is required to fund our 2 compounds with the aim of on licensing them. Explain to me please what the other options are and the consequences thereof.

Sareums aim to raise funds with the objective of putting SDC1801 through stage 1 clinical trials and the development of SDC 1802 to do the same. That is their aim and are in a far better position than any of us here to decide..
As for the ' it does put into question that consolidation taking place above £1 per share r to attract instituation??? From whence does this derived figure appear from? Should consolidation be 2 to 1, 5 to 1, 10 to 1, 20 to 1 or more. Would you be content with a 10 to 1 consolidation to make it close to the 48p per share that Lloyds are at regarding Lloyds as a comparison.

Lloyds, as far as i can see have little or nothing in comparison with Sareum, perhaps you could supply an argument to support anything to the contrary.

Regards

I

A recap here with finances raised over the past year.
Ist June, £900,000 raised.
15th June, £1,470,000 raised.
19th July, £1,000,000 raised.
9th August, £1,000,000 raised.
17th December £1,630,000 raised.

A total raised of £6,000,000.

It was a requirement to be eligible raising of funds via institutional investment, that a company had to be able to demonstrate the ability to raise 5 million pounds. Sareum has demonstrated this by raising a sum grater than £5 million.

Had this sum had not been raised where would we be? The SP would be stagnant, far lower price than it is now, with some real doom and gloom I would hasten to add. In effect nothing has changed with the integrity and potential world class leaders with our SDC1801 and SDC1802 in immunotherapy and oncology respectively. It is the raising of funds that have propelled the SP and market Cap very little else. We were all happy with that of course.

Sareum are seeking to receive substantial funding from institutional investment which they are now eligible, share consolidation becomes an essential part. A share at £1.50 looks decidedly like a company is solvent and its share is worth a significant amount. At 5p or thereabouts it does not give that impression although Market cap is the same at circa 30 to 1 consolidation. Very much phycological. It creates very important impressions which can either lead to failure or success. Imagine being stopped in your car by two people. Both are policeman. One has a police mans outfit on, the other a clowns costume. Which one would you take notice of? Very important to the credibility, of which people base decisions on.
As further investment will become a requirement, Whilst in pursuit of this the book runner for want of a better term needs to attract the institutional investor. The book runner will not want to lose out. They will need to set an SP based on current market cap. They carry a risk like the HNWI's. Both for the investor and PH they will want the SP/market cap as low as they can get. It stands to reason. Is there anyone here who would not want to buy shares at the lowest possible price?

So yes on the pessimistic side a dip in SP is likely. Consolidation in this respect does not make a bl00dy blind bit of difference. What can make a difference is the amount of funds raised ( ie the amount) following share consolidation with respect to the ratio of the value of the Market Cap,

We have no idea of how much Sareum wish to raise.

On the positive side. Funds will eventually be raised via the issue of new shares post consolidation. It may well be, and is also very that positive news between now and news of consolidation will be released via RNS. Most likely positive news prior to issuance of new shares to raise funds.

Most importantly on the success of a significant fund rise it puts Sareum firmly in the driving seat. They can then pick and choose.
The financial gain by being in control cannot be overemph

Warthog4. Best post this year!

Clinical trials need be carried out first.
in addition:-
'Molnupiravir, another antiviral pill, is already being offered to the most vulnerable adults in the UK - including cancer patients and transplant recipients. It is also being tested on a wider pool of 10,000 people over 50 years old as part of a major study led by Oxford University.

Earlier this month the UK increased its order for molnupiravir, made by the US drugs company Merck Sharp & Dohme, to a total of 2.3 million courses. On the same day, the French health authorities cancelled their entire order after what they described as disappointing clinical trial data.

US pharmas cashing in on Covid with anti virals which can be made relatively cheaply and developed in a short space of time. Desperation by the ignorant that exist in our government. They have to be seen to be doing something even if to no avail.

Enough from me as om my 4th glass.

This taken from 2017.
“Previous studies have shown widely disparate estimates for the cost of bringing a cancer drug to market, from $320 million to $2.7 billion, while a lack of publicly available data has limited a more accurate estimate,” said Sham Mailankody, M.B.B.S., study co-author and hematologist and medical oncologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. “We thought if we focused on the R&D spending of some pharmaceutical companies that have only one FDA-approved cancer drug in the market, we might be able to better estimate the cost of developing a cancer drug. We were surprised to see our analysis show this cost to be about $648 million, substantially lower than the often-cited $2.7 billion.”

From April 2020
The research included 63 of 355 new therapeutic drugs and biologics approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2009 and 2018. They note that data was mainly found for smaller companies, products in specific therapeutic areas, orphan drugs, first-in-class drugs, and drugs that received accelerated approval. The data came from 47 different companies.

They found that the estimated median capitalized research and development cost per therapeutic product was $985 million.

A further article Feb 20.
In the infographic above, data journalist Katharina Buchholz shows Evaluate’s data for worldwide sales of prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. As you can see, cancer drugs handily took the number one spot in 2018 and yielded the industry $123.8 billion worldwide. That results in a worldwide market share of 14.3 percent.

By 2024, Evaluate projects cancer drug sales to nearly double to $236.6 billion, increasing its worldwide market share to nearly 20 percent of prescription and OTC drugs. That makes oncological therapies worth more than the next five drug therapies combined.

The report forecasts the main drivers of this success to be Keytruda and Humira. Owned by Merck & Co. and AbbVie, respectively, the two cancer drugs are estimated to earn a combined $29 billion in 2024.

In total, the top 15 therapy areas will earn $1.2 trillion for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024.

Funding is important. Although the science i believe can walk the talk as opposed to talk the walk. At some stage serious funding will be required.

Someone give an idea of how much 1801 and 1802 are worth with success in phase 1 trials and a long patents protection.

At the end of the day you pay for what you get.

PH as a bookrunner I dare say will want to profit as much as possible. Consolidation on its own is not a problem.

The problem that may arise is the raising of funds and that will depend on the SP price days prior to the issue of new shares allocations with options. All down to timing and when news arrives. Good tox results will see a move North.
It is time we entered the big arena and that requires funding. A multi billion pound company does not become such with tiny bank balance.

I do like a beer Blastoid. Some housework been up since 6. Off work for a few days. Not had a beer for a while as slept most of the past week.
Telly over in Philippines still waiting for electric to be put on. Without electric and water since 18th Dec. Cebu got hit quite badly in Typhoon. Cannot buy a generator for love nor money in this time. Cheap chinese generators that were 8k peso circa 125 pounds were being sold for 28k peso circa 420 pounds.

No water too although have tanks. Bore hole was finished 200 feet and pump installed with pipework and tanks but pump requires 7.5 KVa to start it.
Telly for her Christmas present can have 22KVa diesel generator to run house. Low speed 1800 rpm Cummins diesel.

Will have a water filtration system fitted also as bottled water is all they use over there. Can take water sample to have analysed for purposes of filtration. I would not think is bad, as went through 60 feet of rock before they hit water.

All in all OK. Telly normally ask how many glasses of beer I have. Used to be 8 or 10. Now it only 3. Telly pleased with that. I have not told her I have new glass tankard that holds 2 pints to the line. It gets to the line you can still squeeze another half tin of Tennants in to bring it to the brim. Similar to consolidation, the amount has not changed.

Generator cost around 520k peso pushing 9k pounds with delivery ( it heavy at just under a tonne so will send some money for the lads that install it so they can each buy a truss). They are good workers we have and they are very industrious, in all seriousness I do help them from time to time. Financially and pay for the children's Christmas party, but this year was out due to Covid. They will get a good one next year.

My Christmas present to myself I have just topped up. The glass that is.

Enough of my drivel.

Regards and a very prosperous and healthy new year to you.

A very happy, healthy and prosperous new year to all. I will drink to that.

Yes in full agreement with you Potnak that our compounds are up for sale in one form or another. Sareum I am in full belief need financial clout behind them 4 million in the bank not enough.

As a pharma, would you not have a shadow of doubt that you only have funds for the next 12 months? This creates a buyers market whereby they will make low offers as will see your cash in hand a weak spot ie small upfront payment and milestones They will use this in informal negotiations. ( Likely I feel to attract offers from the smaller pharmas) To them it is another risk ( especially big pharmas) by the financial assets the company have. To this extent should, if and when funds are raised Sareum can use this as a trump card, ie we are not prepared to accept your offer, come back when you are serious.

Fund raising should also stabilise the SP.

Further note also, is Sareum need to be selective of who the pharma is and their financial clout. We most certainly do not want a sierra type deal whereby development of an inhibitor is halted due to lack of funds. Yes this financial clout works both ways. That means whoever we deal with must have the funding and ability to progress. As a would be pharma wanting to on license one of our compounds with due diligence then we ie Sareum will view theirs with due diligence.

As I see it, with a consolidation followed by a significant fund raise, the addition of good expected toxicity reports it will put us on the big pharma's serious radar. Stage 1 trials and their results should they prove positive will be the icing on the cake. This is the point in time I believe serious formal offers will be made. We can finance this ourselves but at the end will have little to no funds left. We cannot rely on HNWI's as not guaranteed. Look at the SP increase since they came aboard, we have them to thank for that.

Tim and co are not fools. They have acted brilliantly in protecting our innovative compounds with patents. Clearly they have worked out the pros and cons of financing in its various forms. it will cost them to raise funds of that we can be sure. But much better I feel to have them in the driving seat deciding who they are happy to take on board as opposed to another Sierra SRA737 escapade. ( Sareum nothing to do with this as all agreed by the CPF)

Once the light is seen as to the avenues it opens up I am sure we will see our just returns realised.

Regards and beer time for me.

Sooner or later funds will have to be raised for further trials down the line, either through an 0n license or raise funds via investors. Either will not want to pay top dollar.
Once consolidation is made further investment will be required ( I believe this is the reason for consolidation in the first place)
The amount to be raised we do not know but hazard a guess at 25 million plus. ( will use this figure as an example)
Investors will want a discount round about 20% plus options ( this is controlled by the book runner that I am assuming would be PH)
Market Cap at present circa 150 million.
Take 30 to one reduction still gives us market Cap of 150 million. Instead we have 100 million shares @ 150p a share.
approx 20 and a bit million shares to bring capital of 25 million (20% reduction in price). Plus their will be option of course. Peel Hunt assuming to be the book runner will be in full control. Note the amount of options will be dictated by the bookrunner and can be considerable.

Advantages
sufficient funding to take to stage 2 trials;
less volatility in SP movement.
May be listed on US stock exchange. ( Not 100% sure if the Peel Hunt here are related to the Peel Hunt in USA)
Companies for the purposes of on licensing will be attracted to companies with good cash reserves. 4 million is not enough.

Disadvantage if it can be seen as this will be cost in Market Cap around 5 million ( add the dilution by the use of options can add considerably) a few hundred thousand in fees and a yet to be determined amount of options.

Although can appear costly the gain as I see it far outweighs the cost.

Tim says priority was on 1801. Much better stance and a better hand to hold when negotiating with a pharma with a 2 dollar per share and 30 million dollars in the bank. ie much stronger bargaining power.

Yes PH will make money.
But the benefits surely outweigh the cost. We will not be dictated to by a pharma if this course of action in chosen, The pharma will have no control and if he wants in he will have to pay the price which in such a case the gain financially to us will be much more than a 5 million increase. Effectively as development progresses the risk goes down and the worth of the compound goes up.

Just how much we are truly worth will then become realisation. 100 million shares at 5 to 10 pounds a share is not out of the question in the not too distant future. In reality this is not far from Thoths long predicted 28p per share at a Market Cap of 1 billion.
Nothing is free in life.

Regards all and a happy New Year to you and keep the faith.

Ps a bit of a rushed post and very rough in head calcs.

Apologies Warthog4, I missed your name from top of last post.

I hope all is well with your Memsahib. I am glad to hear been given all clear. But do keep a very active eye on it.

We all get down at times. Uncertainty is not good for us.
Not good at all when we feel for those nearest and dearest to us. Covid certainly not helped.

Wishing all on this board especially those who have experienced extreme anxiety over health issues whether themselves or members of their family a very healthy, happy and prosperous 2022.

An interesting read ( I know its US but similar to our systems of investment banking)

https://investmentbank.com/fees/#:~:text=%20Investment%20Banking%20Fee%20Types%20%201%20Retainer,Lehman%20Formulas%20shown%20above.%20One%20thing...%20More%20

The only advice I would give is be prepared by the shenanigans that may be put on by the likes of PH. They are not interested in the investor already here. They have interests in share movement. There are only a small percentage of shares in free float. Their aim is to bring the MC down. You can always sell something that is undervalued. Tell me how else do they make their money.

As for consolidation Aston Martin went from around 70p a share up to 15 pounds a share and hit a high above 23 pounds a share. They have fallen back. Effects of Covid and demand has bought the price back down. Having the latest gadget or the car shown in a James Bond film is not a neccessity, a major advancement for treatments for immuno of which Covid 19 is a side play and effective cancer treatments is.

The science here is second to none. That is my belief. The only in phase human studies that give an indication of how good we are is SRA737.
Perhaps those that purport to have been here years could comment on the toxicity of this compound against our inhouse 1801 and 1802. I very much look forward to their comments ( either way positive or negative) and especially the reasonings behind the comments.

What was the purpose of 737?
What was it aimed at?
Why is it effective when used in combo?

those that been here should be able to answer this as a piece of pi55

Regards all.

Seawolf I agree there is no need to consolidate. Up to a point. Aston Martin consolidated around 20 to 1 over a year ago. The reason being you cannot have a world leading marque in the penny per share arena, it was postulated that the Aston Martin marque alone worth in excess of a billion ( ie just for the name) The Chinese I believe were very interested.
How many world class companies or banks come to that have a SP of a few pence.

All about image. Going out with a pocket full of change and a load of small notes or equivalent half a dozen 50 pound notes.

Kudos is all. The association of being a penny share company is looked down upon. The Science is good damned good.

Unfortunately big investors not want 100 million shares in a 3 and a half billion share company. they would rather have 1 million in a 35 million share company. Even though market cap is identical.

No need of course to consolidate unless you press for external investment. The investor does not want to pay current price,
The downside is whenever consolidation is announced it is looked at as a bad thing especially with the MM's. They I feel will rip the hell out of it. Ehat happens the same day or a day later the price is back up.
An excuse to suppress the market value of companies to allow those that want to invest to come aboard at a price less than current market cap. PH I feel will be ruthless.
I myself a holder of millions totally intend to fill my boots should the price drop significantly.

I myself not have a problem I have genuinly been on this board with this share longer than most. That includes Thoth.

So yes I do have a very good undestanding and experience of this share along with the shenanigans the MMs play.

If no one sells should the price drop, how does the wannabe PH client get his shares from?

They play the weak for their own benefit. Just look at their history.

As I have said before, short term volatality ( that is if people sell) mid term and long term looking rosy.

HNWI are not fools. They are already in. Their ar5e is covered. Those that want to get in may not get in at the price they want irrespective of the antics of PH.

Regards and have a great day.

Hi Spurs. I am of the opinion that news via an RNS of consolidation that the SP will drop some. Then a retrace, Slightest good news following this will lead to gains.
Consolidation is not a bad thing, but short term can have its down sides.
It will all be about timing of the consolidation if it does go ahead and who it is spearheaded by.
I dare say PH have plenty of clients that they will look after.
Medium to long term fine.
Short term will be a bit volatile I feel.
I for one will add considerably on a dip.
Regards

My opinion for what it is worth is that Peel Hunt have been engineering an SP since they came aboard. They pushed it down to around 3p before allowing it to come back up.

Regards

This vaccine stands out in the COVID-19 vaccine landscape,” Modjarrad said. “The repetitive and ordered display of the coronavirus spike protein on a multi-faced nanoparticle may stimulate immunity in such a way as to translate into significantly broader protection.”

Their aim is to create.
Then the words used are 'may stimulate'

Perhaps the headline to be more accurate should read. US army creates single vaccine which may be effective against all covid sars variants.
As for it being effective against future strains is a very tall claim. Best of luck with that.
With regards to it being effective? Is it 50% 75% or 100? Maybe, maybe not.
In addition we do need alternative forms of treatment, in case maybe the vaccine does not work as well as is claimed to.

If sars 3 comes along would it prove effective against that?
Does it 'indeed down regulate the cytokine storm'? That was the term used in Sareums released RNS.

Regards

Regards