Member Info for sadoldgit

Nothing has changed with regards to our 1801 and 1801. We are waiting for official notification that we have at least no toxicity issues. This is the biggest milestone for us so far. Around circa 10 years in painstaking and time consuming development for what is the biggest development in Sareum history. You either believe in the science or you do not.

We have further gained a very important 1.4 million so sure up our coffers. Our burn rate will increase. It is also important to raise funds to have as a reserve. What would the SP be with Sar and a bank balance of half a million. Much less than it is now. Brokers are there to make money and they do not give a monkeys who they rob.

It will cost whether funds are raised via PH or via a reduced offer for on licensing. Tims intention is to on license at early stage clinical trials, to maximise value for share holders as opposed to end of pre clinical. We have sufficient funds for Phase 1 trial. Covid 19 is a Brucey bonus at Thoth said.

It all hinges around our toxicity results. Tim is not aware of any concerns with regards to this. Interested parties will also be eagerly awaiting the results. Lighting of the blue touch paper comes to mind.

Nothing cut and dusted until official confirmation of results. That will open the doors. Phase 1 human trial studies will be the next major hurdle to overcome. Not only will the SKIL platform indicate chemical interactions and their effect on targets it will also have more very detailed information than we are not privy to with regards to toxicity issues that have resulted in the failure of other competitors inhibitors.

The use of PH to raise significant multi million pound funding at this stage is an option only.

However, costly it may seem to some, you must always have a back up plan. The back up plan as far as I see it raising funds via PH. On the positive side of this is the potential interested parties will also be aware of this.

Regarding a milestone payment mid year of circa half a million funds from Sierra, this just cannot be relied upon. What can be relied upon is 1.4 million raise which is nigh 3 times the reduced Sierra oncology milestone payment. Any company that we deal with must be certain that the financial status of Sareum is sound.

regards

You are welcome cobaltblue.

One thing it does indicate is that large buyers are prepared to pay 5p per share. That speaks for itself.

Over reaction here by many as 2022 to 2026. I do not think they have seen the real impetus of 1.4 million raise at 5p per share. 7 million plus raised in past 8 months.

Regards

Cobalt blue. Who is the client? How does PH make its money? PH effectively acting as a book runner.

When this is understood then you will see why they want the SP as low as they can get. It is not about consolidation. It is about raising of new funds. PH effectively middle man.

An SP is established over a period of time.
Funding is required by a company. More Shares are issued in relation to the sum required. The book runner will have clients prepared to pay a certain price ( within a range), ie they will know what large investors will pay.

Effectively here they have predetermined the SP of new shares.
Next comes the profit margin. The lower that the book runner can lower the SP to results in a larger profit for them. They are the ones that take the risk and have covered the raising of funds backed by banks.

They are the middle man. Most likely have buyers at the moment and any further drop in price results in profit to the book runner. They effectively own the new issuance of shares which are then sold ( normally on a pre agreed price)

Now tell me that PH do not have an agenda.

No problem with 29 million shares issued and the raisng of 1.4 million.

As I say who is the client. The client is the investor, not the company ( effectively commodity) they are selling

Now how would a buyer purchase 29 million shares at current SP? It could not happen. There are absolutely no way that there are many free float shares in issue. The price would rocket over 10p per share. HNWI more savvy than most on here.

This is very very brief and non in depth hurried post. Busy day for me in more ways than one

Regards

Effectively here Sareum have cut out the middle man, ie PH. That giving them two fingers! Sareum clearly not overly content with PH antics.

Regards

Effectively another 1.4 million raised. Look on the bright side peeps. PH have been doing their best to drag the SP and market cap down for the past 4 months. This is an excellent response by Sareum to keep the price being hammered down by th mm's.

As Sareum had no need of raising funds in the short term as sufficient funds to take through Phase 1 trial SDC 1801 then this is the only effective option they had to steady the price.

We await official toxicity results. On a positive result we will climb. PH have an agenda and that is certainly not to the benefit of Sareum shareholders.

Another 1.4 million funds. Does anyone here think that PH can achieve obtain a better price.

Regards

I hope all goes well for those that are invested here. You deserve it. It does look very promising. Covid not going soon. NHS has to prepare for the virus in the event of a strain far more deadly than we have seen so far. Inhalation main cause of spread.

Regards

Thu, 27 January 2022, 4:05 am·3-min read

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SAN MATEO, Calif., January 27, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sierra Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRRA), a late-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to delivering targeted therapies for rare cancers, today announced the pricing of an upsized underwritten public offering of 4,074,075 shares of its common stock and, in lieu of shares of common stock, to a certain investor, pre-funded warrants to purchase up to 925,925 shares of common stock pursuant to its existing shelf registration statement. The shares of common stock are being offered at a public offering price of $27.00 per share and the pre-funded warrants are being offered at a public offering price of $26.999 per pre-funded warrant, which represents the per share public offering price for the common stock less the $0.001 per share exercise price for each pre-funded warrant. The expected gross proceeds to Sierra Oncology from the offering is approximately $135.0 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and other offering expenses. In addition, Sierra Oncology has granted to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 750,000 of additional shares of its common stock at the public offering price less underwriting discounts and commissions. Sierra Oncology intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to prepare for potential commercialization of momelotinib, clinical development of its other product candidates, research, clinical and process development and manufacturing of its product candidates, working capital, and capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes. All of the securities are being offered by Sierra Oncology. The offering is expected to close on or about January 31, 2022, subject to customary closing conditions.

Bare in mind that Sierra were nigh 150 dollars a share just ove 4 years ago. I believe there was a consolidation a couple of years back.
Fast tracked momo too. Next stop is registration which should be a formality.

Effectively I do not believe there are many shares in free float. 1,000,000 share buy and effectively a 10% increase. Sells shown as greater than buys. Jeez. Mind boggles if were to hit a buying frenzy on positive RNS.

Cup of tea and back to housework.

Good morning everyone.
Nice to see some blue for a change.
Good news from over the water. Has yet to be realised over here fully. Indications are that it will be all go ahead for CHK1 development, subject to further raising by Sierra.
Should give us milestone payment by mid year of half a million with milestones later to follow. SRA 737 coming to fruition.

Not sure how PH will keep the price supressed as done their best so far.

News awaits us on toxicity reports. Should be all thumbs up here. Tim is confident and indeed is clearly excited by the prospect.

Positive news on CHK1 development along with good toxicology report will propel us upwards.

Will address the 3 billion as mentioned earlier but this was the figure for Addressable Market for Momo in US alone. Chk1 would have a lot wider figure especially world wide.

Once into the market we would have received circa 70 million milestone payments ie 27.5% of 290 million dollars.

Royalties would be 27.5% of a Royalty payment in total of net profit. Figure here was expected around the 10% from memory.

if we use the figure of 200 million dollars a year and profit margin around 50% that would give us 2.7% of 100 million. This circa 2.7 million a year.

This is a pessimistic turnover. But most important of all it gives Sareum a steady stream of income. No more doubt as to the liquidity of the company.

I will do some more looking into when have time. Had a long 14 hr, 702 mile drive from Thurso to back home in Suffolk on Monday. Slept well last night.

Regards

I am pleased you made a few bob on Sierra. Will make up for the delays they have caused with SRA737. It has and I am sure will continue to work out for you Silverfoil 13. It is your decision with what you do with your investments and would give no advice to this.

Sierra also have SRA737. I would estimate as effective in around, as much as I can envisage 40% with and without combo. It must be worth around 2% at least (being pessimistic). That would equate to circa 3 billion in revenue. SRA737 is much further down the road and hence less risk.

We are at an earlier stage with our 1801 and 1802. Neither are in the market yet although they have very long life patent protection. If all proves ok i reckon you looking at 1 to 2 billion a year. Take the average 1,5 and that is around 15 billion.

Risk factor of 5. ( No side affects taken into account as with Jak 2 and Jak 3)

That 3 billion. Made up of upfront, milestone payment

At early human trials after phase1. 10% upfront 300 million. Milestone payments of 2.7 billion. Royalties based at 10% of profit margin.

A long way away but you are looking at getting towards a pound a share if same amount of shares are in issue. Expectation also that milestone payments of 70 million plus royalties to Sareum .

These figures not out of the question. give or take 50% either way of forecast and you have a market cap of between 1.5 to 4.5 billion (dollars) A few years away of course as milestone payment paid on success.

The earlier the risk generally the less the up front milestone payments. I may be way out. But just an input here as to potential.
Important also to remember that the growth is expected to be greatest in oncology. Total finances in pharmaceuticals available is 1.47 trillion dollars. ( end of 2020 or 2021). Serious purchasing power, even more serious negotiating power.

Enough from me.

Goodnight

RELATED: 2021 forecast: M&A poised to rebound in 2021, fueled by pharma's $1.47T in deal-making firepower: analysts

As of December, PwC estimated that the industry had $1.47 trillion in capital that could be directed toward M&A. While the number was down 6% over 2019, it showed the industry still has enough firepower to unleash, Sky Milch, PwC’s U.S. pharmaceutical and life sciences deals leader, said in an interview.

If 2019 and 2020 are any indication, oncology will continue to be the main theme of biopharma M&A deals, with immunology and cardiovascular also on the list as probable targets.

Cell and gene therapy might also continue its hot streak. Following Novartis’ $8.7 billion acquisition of AveXis, Roche’s $4.3 billion deal for Spark Therapeutics, and Astellas’ $3 billion Audentes Therapeutics buyout in the past few years, 2020 once again witnessed a spending spree featuring gene therapy.

Apart from Bayer’s potentially $4 billion play for Asklepios BioPharmaceutical in our report, Eli Lilly’s $1 billion deal for Prevail Therapeutics, UCB’s acquisition of Handl Therapeutics, Novartis’ Vedere Bio deal and CSL’s purchase of a uniQure hemophilia B therapy are all focused on gene therapies.

RELATED: The top 10 largest biopharma M&A deals in 2019

While biopharma companies have the need and capacity to pull off M&A, megamergers such as that between Bristol Myers Squibb and Celgene may be rare if not obsolete for a few years now that the White House is welcoming a Democratic president.

Several multibillion-dollar mergers in the prior years have struggled with U.S. antitrust reviews. While BMS-Celgene, AbbVie-Allergan and Mylan-Pfizer’s Upjohn eventually cleared the Federal Trade Commission after product selloffs, the Democratic commissioners at the agency have made their dissatisfaction clear. Instead of specific product-by-product reviews for potential anticompetition concerns, they are rooting for a broader examination of company behaviors such as drug pricing, which could mean additional hurdles for mergers between large firms.

Before 2021 fully unfolds, let’s look once again at 2020’s biopharma M&A crop. Our list only includes straightforward company or product takeovers related to drugs and excludes licensing deals or partial stake purchases.

The ranking is based on top-line deal value at the time of announcement, and only the upfront payment is counted. Therefore, some heavily backloaded deals, such as Novo Nordisk’s acquisition of France’s Corvidia Therapeutics, didn’t make the cut. In Novo’s case, its $2.1 billion deal potential is led by just $725 million upfront.

We also didn’t include Takeda’s $2.3 billion divestiture of its Japan consumer health business to Blackstone because it went to private equity—the same reason we excluded Nestlé’s $10 billion spinoff of Galderma in 2019.

Plenty of thoughts on this. It will depend at which stage Sareum decide to on license. We are at end of preclinical. I would suggest that would be looking to on license 1801 immuno at end of stage one trials ie to satisfy and confirm no adverse toxicity in human trials. This really is the make or break point.
An excerpt from Fierce pharma below. But i will add that momo is at end of stage 3 trials, We are at end of pre clinical.

Immunotherapy is forecast at 152 billion dollars from 2021 to 2026. This would be the total addressable market. This includes oncology too. Oncology has realised the benefits of immunotherapy as a form of treatment.

RELATED: 2021 forecast: M&A poised to rebound in 2021, fueled by pharma's $1.47T in deal-making firepower: analysts

As of December, PwC estimated that the industry had $1.47 trillion in capital that could be directed toward M&A. While the number was down 6% over 2019, it showed the industry still has enough firepower to unleash, Sky Milch, PwC’s U.S. pharmaceutical and life sciences deals leader, said in an interview.

If 2019 and 2020 are any indication, oncology will continue to be the main theme of biopharma M&A deals, with immunology and cardiovascular also on the list as probable targets.

Cell and gene therapy might also continue its hot streak. Following Novartis’ $8.7 billion acquisition of AveXis, Roche’s $4.3 billion deal for Spark Therapeutics, and Astellas’ $3 billion Audentes Therapeutics buyout in the past few years, 2020 once again witnessed a spending spree featuring gene therapy.

Apart from Bayer’s potentially $4 billion play for Asklepios BioPharmaceutical in our report, Eli Lilly’s $1 billion deal for Prevail Therapeutics, UCB’s acquisition of Handl Therapeutics, Novartis’ Vedere Bio deal and CSL’s purchase of a uniQure hemophilia B therapy are all focused on gene therapies.

RELATED: The top 10 largest biopharma M&A deals in 2019

While biopharma companies have the need and capacity to pull off M&A, megamergers such as that between Bristol Myers Squibb and Celgene may be rare if not obsolete for a few years now that the White House is welcoming a Democratic president.

Several multibillion-dollar mergers in the prior years have struggled with U.S. antitrust reviews. While BMS-Celgene, AbbVie-Allergan and Mylan-Pfizer’s Upjohn eventually cleared the Federal Trade Commission after product selloffs, the Democratic commissioners at the agency have made their dissatisfaction clear. Instead of specific product-by-product reviews for potential anticompetition concerns, they are rooting for a broader examination of company behaviors such as drug pricing, which could mean additional hurdles for mergers between large firms.

Before 2021 fully unfolds, let’s look once again at 2020’s biopharma M&A crop. Our list only includes straightforward company or product takeovers related to drugs and excludes licensing deals or partial stake purchases.

Must correct myself.

The addressable market is given as 3 billion and (not 3 billion per annum) in the US alone. I am assuming this is the total addressable market. Of more investor importance is serviceable obtainable market.

What is the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? The Total Addressable Market (TAM), also referred to as total available market, is the overall revenue opportunity that is available to a product or service if 100% market share was achieved. It helps determine the level of effort and funding that a person or company should put into a new business line.

Bottom-up analysis is a more reliable method because it relies on primary market research to calculate the TAM estimates. It uses more reliable data on the current pricing and usage of a product. For example, for a startup company with a free accounting mobile app and annual subscriptions worth $100, it can take a reasonable estimate of the number of businesses in its target market to obtain the TAM.

The advantage of using a bottom-up approach is that the company can explain why it selected certain customer segments and left out others. The company relies on data from its research or survey and, therefore, the addressable market would be more relevant and accurate rather than when relying on inarguable data.

Sareum, I would hazard an educated guess have already gone through these stages with a view to on licensing. I am sure the HNWI are a little better informed of this aspect than we are. At each milestone a degree of risk is removed. They will have an idea of market size, demand and how much of that market they can readily obtain.

Apologies for the error below

It was commented by sierra oncology that SRA737 may be more commercially viable than Momo.
Momo has a predicted market of 3 billion a year in the US alone. it has been fast tracked. The granting of registration should just be a matter of formality.
Sierra has a market cap of approx 270 million dollars as we speak. All eyes will be on sierra. With funding available it should be a matter of a few weeks before we hear of intentions to develop SRA737 with LDG and Immuno checkpoint inhibitor. yes I know tis for momo, but without this milestone reached it would put severe doubt on SRA 737 development.

Well done to the Sierra team and i trust they will continue with this effort with SRA737. There must be a few interested parties who will have to pay just that liitle bit extra now for a slice of the action.

Clearly i believe is that Sierra know the true value and importance of the only CHK 1 inhibitor available for license.

Notice the funding granted around the same time as the positive results.

I not think it be long before we receive an RNS with a positive update from Tim with regards to this.

Regards

it has removed somewhat, the element of doubt that Sierra may not be able to progress SRA737 in a timely manner.

sierra up 61% as of 1950 hrs

Globetrotter184, I suggest you look at the presentation. Tim has no concerns. Past 9 years plus have been spent developing it. Plans for 1802 to be put into trials at a later stage would not go ahead unless Sareum were very confident with regards to toxicity. All about LADMET which I am sure you understand even going to the stage of a capsule as the form of oral intake. This attention to detail places us head and shoulders above the rest. Celtic been around a while like many of us. He is very much aware of this.
Jak1 and especially Tyk2 inhibitors do not suffer the disadvantages of serious side effects that result in Black box warnings.
TyK 2 has much interest as is the new generation of targeted kinase inhibitor.

Regards and suggest you look through at least the past 6 years of SAR RNS.

Sierra up 63.89% as of 14.42hrs

It should have a slight positive blue side to Sareum as positive knock on effect. News not filtered through yet. PH not up on current affairs me thinks. Ph doing their best to keep the price down.

Regards to all.