Member Info for rylidan

Novice,
I take great exception to your statement:
"Unbeleivable another who had done exactly the same 'trading' joined in defending the ramper, his math however was more than dubious and shown as incorrect."
Comparing a lth with a trader there is no way you could make an extra 16% with a sell and a buy. The lth makes 8% you make 16%. That is a difference of 8%. You have NOT gained 16% over a lth. You just think like a trader.

It is quite obvious you and your mates here want to try and talk this down, probably in line with your current spreadbet short position. In fact I doubt if any of you actually held this share at any stage.

Lucky said he got out at break even! He was investing at £2.50 up, so that in itself shows his statements as dubious. Unless he had an undeclared short at some time that went wrong.

Anyway, fundamentals look strong here, at just $100 / ton the yield here would be around 15% at these prices, and the company is probably holding at least half its current MCAP in cash right now.

Anyway, apart from that you have both posted useful information, although you are not the reason I'm invested here

The benefit of being lth, not stuck to my screen all day.....

The sun is shining so going out to play some golf. Have a nice day everyone :-)

OK, so in your version the trader has made 16% and the lth has made 8%, a difference of only 8%.

Except next time you sell at £3.30 you may miss out on future profits.

It's a well know fact that investors cash out far too early in most investments.

I would also like to sat that on Friday I said I had sold "part" of my holding. However, I am definitely a lth with my remaining £20k ish of shares here. For me to buy "trading shares" I have to feel 90% confident the price will rise short term. I only trade in companies I'm also a lth in because I know they are a long term hold at worst, and I rarely, if ever, trade at a loss.

No wonder you are a novice still!

The lth will have say 1m shares at £3.30
The day trader who got back in 8% cheaper will have 1.08m shares at £3.30, but also runs the risk the price will surge past the £3.30 mark

So tell me, how is that a 16% increase for the trader who calls it perfectly on the dip?

And that 8% has just become 6%

You don't get 16% by selling and reducing when the price goes back up to £3.30. You just get the 8% additional shares compared to simply holding (less charges).

Fundamentals haven't changed since last week! If anything, we've had another week of fcf at stonking high prices. Short term blip that can change in the blink of an eye.

I wouldn't be too quick to congratulate Lucky. He has to get back in at a lower price or possibly miss out on the gravy train!!

Liberum set the 305 target when the share price was £2.20 at the beginning of August. They didn't know what we've had in the last 7 weeks! The climate has changed for Thungela - enormously, since that rating.

I agree that a dividend of at least 80p is likely, probably more, and EPS could be as high as £2. So holding from here is a sound strategy. You can guarantee there will be fluctuations, and the weekend news of rising gas prices, only serves to underline the likely increase in the coal price.

I also, perhaps stupidly, got spooked and banked half my profit at £3.22. EVERY time I do that the share start to continue its rise again. I should stop watching this BB. Still it's sitting in cash now just in case the sp does fall back a bit. However if it continues the rise up to £10 by this time next year (as expected), I won't complain either!

So Richard Sneller invests around £1.5m here, and people don't seem to recognise the significance?? People don't invest that kind of money in a smallish company without a very good reason.

At £10 a share this company could easily be yielding 10%, on a PE of 5 or under. At those figures I wouldn't sell at £10 let alone the £5 people are quoting. Need the full year figures to properly assess, and they are ages away. Until then you need to punt the likely cash returns here. From what I can see on the risk / reward scale this is hugely tilted to reward right now.

Reckon this could be my best long term investment to date. HGM was good for me before they sold out. GGP was excellent, but a trade for me as not producing yet. This looks like an undervalued cash machine, that will return huge amounts into my pension for years to come.
Early days though!

Also key, is that given the news there will be a lack of sellers too. Will these two stakeholders be buying more? That's anyones guess. Reckon we should move up to a new trading range, from the 11.5p to 15p range , but not sure how far we can go before the results. Depends on supply and demand as usual.

That is very very reassuring news. I believe he was the one buying up to 15p a short while ago, as there was some sustained buying pressure before dropping back. Reckon he would have done considerable governance and research before buying in. Nice to have on board.

Yes, reckon a mix of buys and sells. May even been the same person consolidating.

We hit resistance at 15p a couple of months ago. However, hoping that with good results, that I expect, we should sail through that. Could easily get though that in anticipation of results.

Looking good, but as others have said well under true value, that I would put at around 25p if results are as broker forecast, which the company said they are - in July.