Member Info for rylidan

I've only recently invested within average around £3.10. Long term looks sound, but disappointed to see Iron ore drop 20% since I bought. Looks like this could go either way, depending on the further movement of ion ore. Anyway, will top up if it falls much further.

Would have thought the weakening stirling would have helped BATS today. Divi next thursday!!

Hopefully will be this low when divi gets paid next week. Somehow I think it won't be though!

Seems mad price, considering We are selling half of part of the business for 1.3B.

Looks like an exceptionally strong year for RWS. EPS will be well ahead of last year, with a lot more synergy to come from the integration with SDL.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/bat-joins-tobacco-s-health-push-with-energy-drink-investment

Maybe he's given up on his possible takeover aspirations. Not a bad thing IMO, as I think the current team are slowly building up revenue and profit. We also have 2 other large individual stakeholders, building their stakes.

That was a brutal day. I reckon the tracker has to sell as the price drops, which is madness, when there are a lack of buyers. Just over amplifies any fall. Tracking a small Mcap is mad.

I think the RNS stating that they will need to curb production in November because storage space is limited, is a factor in the fall. You can be sure that this will be very oversold when it bounces. Looks tremendous value now, which is why I'm holding. If coal drops below $200 we would be unfairly knocked down again. With so little confirmed data this share price is now driven by market confidence instead if technicals. The reduced sales pipeline doesn't help.

I don't see £530m sustainable cash flow per annum as particularly pessimistic!!! More like based on realistic pricing for coal going forwards. I'd be more than happy with that outcome.

Aro03, the rail traffic has reduced from 926kt to 25kt. Do they also use lorries to get to Richard's Bay? To me that is a significant export loss. However, as I've said, I agree that the overall impact on sales isn't that great. However, the Richard's bay exports may represent the cream. Its still worth more than £4, but I'd like some more details from the company. I don't want to exit far too soon because I get worried about the unknown.

Aro03, let's hope you are right. They seem to have lost a large amount of the Richard's bay exports, but they could now be transporting by road. Just wish they could say that to stop confusion.

It's great that we are recovering from this news, but I just wish the company would be more specific. Have we just lost a vast proportion of our exports at spot? Are we left with just internal contracts? This RNS is more or less useless apart from creating confusion. Anyway, I've taken a gamble and done a small top up. Just couldn't resist.

Thanks around, very useful

Still trying to get to grips with exactly how huge adjusted free cash flow will be. Am I correct that we were negative for H1, or am I reading the report incorrectly?
Also can't find any indication of amount we are selling at spot against long term contracts. Any idea where that info is?
Many thanks to anyone who can help me assess how high this will go.

It's also the first time I can remember where the news cast ended with "At xxx BST the shares are up ...". In the past it has never mattered how good the update was. Perhaps a sign of shrinking supply?

The way that I see it, is IF coal prices stay as they are, the share price should be £20+. We all know that won't happen, and you can bet China will over produce and coal prices will fall. The share price will react to that when it happens.

However, we are still in a sweet spot, with fcf at insane levels for a company with this MCAP. The gamble is how much cash can they make before the Chinese react?

This share price could go either way. As I've already said, the company owe us an update. The climate has changed radically since their last update.

Seems the market likes the update too!!

Nice update. No surprises. All on track with iodine price touching $40 / kg. New plant being assessed.

Been in here just over a year now. See this as my long term replacement for HGM that got bought out - small to medium sized miner with good dividends, and long term prospects. That was a 7 bagger for me over 5 years. I see this in a similar light, but will need a £5 share price by 2025. Not unreasonable!