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Desmond45 - "Smart Investors" do no such thing! Smart investors buy into a FTSE All World Index Tracker ETF and watch this reasonably reliably generate returns of 6-7% compounded over the long term which should make for a wonderful retirement by getting rich slow (7% annual growth doubles your money in 10 years).
I think you mean that "brave speculators like us" hoover up this stock!
Do not kid yourselves - this is a very very risky stock and may return nothing. If you are not comfortable with that, then stop being a brave speculator and be a smart investor instead and buy your FTSE All World Index Tracker.

HivedOff - This is a holding for the long term. Just set up a monthly direct debit for your ISA to buy these shares once a month. The price today, tomorrow, next week or next month more or less doesn't matter as you are buying into a speculative sector in its infancy. Some months you'll buy high, some months you'll buy low and hopefully in 5 years time you'll be laughing. I will guarantee you there will be more funding rounds either to support new investments in new companies or to support the next phase of development in existing companies, or worst case because costs are spiralling out of control to reach the desired end goal. Don't worry about short term price changes and your absolute entry point. I don't think anyone is investing in this share to capitalise on a potential 10 - 20% price change. Bar the traders, i think everyone here are speculators (including myself) hoping beyond hope that this will be a multi-bagger.

JKGunner - I'm glad the guys at Citywire are on the ball and do their research. As I understand it, the overwhelming majority of Agronomic's investments are not in plant based alternatives! If the consumer change is a plant-based revolution, we're stuffed!!! Hahahahaha!

1750mk1 - I am merely looking for an explanation as to why you wouldn't use the same valuation metrics as for an established alternative protein. I am not saying you should - but why not? What makes Beyond Meat or Oatly valued so differently to Quorn? This is just food. It's a very competitive market. The fact that it is high tech food does not make people any more hungry and motivated to eat more. It's just about what size of market share they can take and how much they can sell their product for compared to their input costs (any they may well have much higher input costs due to the energy intensive nature of their production).

Wadnob - I too am interested in what the potential market value of BluNalu will be so thanks for putting down some figures as a starting point. It would be interesting to see what others can do to fine tune this to get a better feel for the potential market value. I've added a couple of points as my tuppence worth below:
1 - You've guessed $5 / pound revenue, but I think this is optimistic. In 2019, the average market price of salmon achieved by Mowi ASA (who I think is the biggest listed salmon producer) was 5.79 Euro / kg so that's about $3.20 / pound. I think "natural" salmon would sell at a significant premium to cultured fish of any variety, so the real revenue might be closer to $2.50 / pound.
2 - You're kind of assuming BluNalu could dominate the fish market - I think guys like Mowi may react to such a shift in the market, so you should probably apply at least a 50% discount to your estimates of what market share they will achieve.
3 - I'm not clear what you mean when you say you are applying the "Semiconductor EV ratio"? What is this and why would it be relevant in the food tech industry. Although Beyond Meat and potentially Oatly have eye watering valuation metrics, this is not universally the case for alternative proteins. For example, I read recently that the value of the well established Quorn brand is probably only a few hundred million. Is it not equally valid to use the same valuation metrics as you would for Quorn.

Anyway, just trying to see if your numbers could be fine tuned - at present, I think based on points 1 and 2 above, that could reduce the value to 25% of what you have guesstimated and point 3 could reduce it significantly further. Any advance on that?

So I joined this share chat yesterday....just at the right time!

My average buy in price to this share is in the mid-20's so I am slightly down but not overly concerned by the latest RNS, but I would reiterate the points I made yesterday:
1 - Investing in small cap startups (particularly in new or emerging technology) is enormously risky. You've got to be prepared to lose your entire investment (not saying that will happen here, but it might.......)
2 - No-one really knows if this industry will take off, or even if it does that the winners will be those backed by ANIC. Again, see above - you've got to be prepared to lose the lot.
3 - There will be threats and opportunities along the way - not sure which category this latest RNS falls into. Is the £50million raise going to bring the products meaningfully closer to market fruition (opportunity) or is it simply that costs spiraling out of control which means they need to come cap in hand for more cash, but aren't meaningfully closer to getting products on the market (threat)? I don't know the answer to that.

I've seen people saying that this investment is a certainty and that Jim Mellon is the bees knees - now, apparently he is a charlatan. I'm sure he is neither.

Just accept that this is a very risky stock. Don't bury your head in the sand. Given that the general talk is that this is a market for the future I would be amazed if there are not future fund raising rounds.

I'm sticking with it by drip feeding a monthly ISA direct debit into this one. We'll see how it pans out.

I think you are right that an 8000% rise is not the appropriate measure of success but part of my reason for joining this chat was to try to get a broader view of what a realistic measure of success might be. I've bought into this stock because I think the investment case has a good story to tell. But is that it? How do you value such a speculative stock? There is essentially no market for this product yet - it's all something that may or may not emerge as a future trend with lots of threats and opportunities on the way. What do other investors realistically expect to get out of this and what forms that view? Don't point me to random valuations on a random blog - these almost certainly have no real insight. So I've read several times that BluNalu is expected to IPO soonish, but does anyone have any reliable indication of what that value might be? Is there any directly comparable listed companies to compare against - I don't think the likes of Beyond Meat is comparable. As far as I understand, none of the companies Agronomics are invested in is at the scale of Beyond Meat or are even necessarily competing for the same market sector. I think a lot of people get very defensive when anything remotely questioning appears on these chats, but wouldn't you also rather be informed of potential threats and rivals? That was another part of my reason for joining this group. So to me, the opportunities are clear but I was looking for some insight as to whether there were any sizeable rivals that might usurp this investment. Are there comparable alternatives that you can invest in?

The claim was posted via a link by GreenValueHunter last Thursday. See original post below - don't shoot the messenger!

OMG. Wallet Investor has just predicted a possible 8000% rise in Agronomics shares by 2026. Link attached ... https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/anic-stock-prediction

My experience in investing in smallcap stocks to date is that most have done dismally! There have been high profile wonder stocks in the mix here e.g. Sirius Minerals. Time will tell if the cultivated cell guys really are offering "superior products". That seems to be the case at face value, but they may not catch on and unless the process uses energy from a renewable source, from what I have read there is a big question mark over the claim that they reduce greenhouse gas emissions which is one of the big selling points of this product. I've also seen people quote Seaspiracy as forming a strand to the investment story - again, I am really skeptical that a sensationalist docu-film should play much part in forming the basis of a strong investment case. Many of the claims made in the film have been questioned, and lets face it, it wouldn't have made interesting viewing if it had made toned down, cautious (realistic?) claims. Anyway, cards on the table, I am a small but interested investor with only £3K invested at an average buy in price in the mid 20's.

Thanks for the welcome. I think I need to re-iterate that I want Agronomics to do well. My point was that people are getting carried away with baseless predictions of 8000% rises by 2026 - that's not a helpful post. No-one knows how this market will develop. I think my original comment that most startup companies fail does indeed apply to this sector as well - why would it not? We all like to think "this time it's different" - but to say this is wishful thinking. I am merely urging caution. And for all the doomsayers who will say I am trying to talk this stock down, I am really not that influential! If you are worried that an inconsequential comment from a tiny investor on an obscure bulletin board will have a material impact on this stock, then you probably shouldn't be invested in this!

Hi - I'm new to this share and feel very positively about it. However, reading through some of the chat threads here astonishes me! I want to talk this share up as much as the next person but I get the impression people are getting ahead of themselves. Agronomics are invested in a variety of startup companies. We should ground ourselves with the knowledge that most startups fail. I would say with almost certainty that at least some of the 16 or 17 startups currently invested in will return zero over the long term and there is a modest chance they will all return zero over the long term. It should be the realistic expectation that only 1 or 2 of the startups will amount to much - the question is how much they will amount to. I'd seen a post talking up 8000% growth by 2026 - that is utter guesswork and investors should not kid themselves otherwise. I am sure this comment will not go down well, but I think everyone needs to step back and not get carried away with shear speculative hype. I am invested in this share and hope it does well, but it forms a very small part of my portfolio as I do not pretend to be able to forecast the future - who knows if cultured meat will take off? There are lots of good reasons to assume it will, but please don't be fooled into thinking that this is certain or that even if it does, the winners will be the companies backed by Agronomics. Just trying to install a bit of realism here, but I emphasize again, I am invested and hope this does well.