Member Info for RuckRover

so you throw stones at the palace when you are at Stamford bridge - naughty boy!

Ivy,
Yes, the post-meeting discussions with board members and fellow investors are a real plus.

I'm not too worried if it is behind closed doors, so long as we can video call in and get the chance to put forward questions (and get answers!)

I think the only problem some people have with AB is:

1) He is prepared to discuss both sides of an argument
2) He has mistakenly been identified as AimBig.

IMO

AB,
"Ruck, i think we need to add to your question, "Why CH resigned".
Connected? "

They are undoubtedly connected. The question is, in what way?
Did LD want the CEO role and CH stepped aside to make way?
Did CH want out and LD heroically took up the mantle?
Or
Did Redmile prefer to have LD as CEO (for whatever reason)

As has been acknowledged, pure speculation. Intriguing though!

Morning C7, All,

So this all relates to the AIM 30% rule:

"When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced"

So IF Redmile were to convert their CLNs (or just buy), any bid would have to be at 20.38 rather than 13p.
Is this significant? I don't think it is, here's why..

August 2025 is a long way off - who can predict what the SP will be by then or indeed the situation with RMs holding or Scancell's cash position.
A bid at 20.38 is no more likely to succeed than one at 13p.
I don't believe RM have any intention of taking over Scancell and will avoid going over 30%. (Bringing on board another major investor could achieve this)

What the purchase of LD's shares shows is how supportive RM are of Scancell. It does beg the question as to what triggered LD's appointment as CEO and award of a large cash payout. Any thoughts?

Never mind jam tomorrow, a bit of bread today would be welcome.

Kash,

It was based more on gut feel than any serious calculation. The increase this year was 30%, another 30% takes us to £12m. The main point I was trying to make was that it won't continue exponentially put will plateau at some level - that may well be £15M. Whether it is £12M, £15M or £18M, the money won't last for ever and I don't think funding at those sorts of levels will come from investment companies. The really serious money needed to take the pipeline to market HAS to come from a big pharmaceutical.

Ratty,
I can confirm that the term deviance is correct.
Standard deviation is a statistical term - I engage with it on a daily basis.
I suspect "non-standard" deviation is another matter!

I agree the cash burn will increase. It has gone up 30% during the period reported and that is before the recent recruitment and office expansion in Oxford. I don't see it as being exponential though. I expect cash burn will plateau around £12M per year. There is a finite amount you can spend as an research company. To carry out P3 trials they will need a partner.

crumbs,
"Ruck, I'd like to think we will have the kind of data and reaction to it within 2 years that could indeed mean £8 or 00000.8p a share ....obviously not within 2 months time though lol."
That's exactly the sort of comment I'm on about! Just mentioning £8 destroys any credibility. We should be looking for 30p on positive Covid results and 40-50p on any positive results (note: results (data) not news) . £1/£2 is a long long way off.
If you want to climb Everest you don't stand at the bottom at try to leap to the top. First you have to make it to base camp. Once there you do one at a time until camp 6 and only then on to the summit.

I think what we are seeing in the SP drop is the fallout from "over-egging the pudding".
If you have realistic expectation regarding future SP and timescales, the news in the RNS today is all positive.
However, if you have bought into the £8 in two years hype, the news in the RNS is does nothing to support that view.
In addition, if you have bet the house on a cloud cuckoo land valuation, you will be panicking and selling which only compounds the problem.
IMO

Crumbs,
Yes, the cash burn isn't as bad as I feared. It doesn't include the recent recruitment and Oxford premises though.

Violindog,

Are we to expect a "First patient second dosed" RNS?

Given that financial results are due on Friday, I would expect that if there is exciting news it will be released at the same time as the results.

C7,
"As Ruck would acknowledge readily, it is Tuesday tomorrow"
Yes, I do acknowledge it IS Tuesday tomorrow and readily at that! :)

Bobbust,

I'm not sure if you are referring to the Te Genero trial in 2006. They injected all 6 healthy volunteers at 10 minute intervals. After 90 minutes they showed signs of adverse reactions and all ended up in intensive care and on organ support for 8 to 16 days. Thankfully, none of them died.

How was your data, data, data post twisted?
Was it to tada, tada, tada?

AB,

If they reach £8 I will be saying Perfick!

"Covidity is not why I'm invested in Scancell, for me the biggest news will be when we hear that MHRA Ethics Committee have given their approval to start the MODI1 Trial."
Chester, you may be right but personally I'd rather be sat at 40p (due to Covidity news) when news breaks than 20p.

Quick update:
The sun has just broken through, I've fed the cat and grandad is back home from the hospital with a new catheter.