George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Unlikely I'd have thought. The reports say they had caught the cancer "early". The Modi trial is for "late stage" patients.
Still, not completely impossible- I'll look forward to his progress reports on the MacMillan community forum.
WTP,
That was my thought as well. The examples given are where (arguably) inferior products succeed through better advertising and marketing, politics or just luck.
All drugs have to go through controlled trials. Surely, the most effective will be selected and used as standard of care so long as the cost isn't disproportionately high?
As for the market left, there will be a constant stream of new potential patients to be treated with what has proven to be best.
TF,
OK, did as you suggested and exited the other side. I wish I could "dance around" lol.
I think we have both known each long enough to understand each others level of knowledge and to some extend feelings. I guess I was a little unfair. It's just that the idea that patients are ignorant set me off a bit.
I did watch the video, including prof Patel. The Scancell slides referred to SCIB1 so limited the population of patients eligible. This of course changes with iSCIB - I wonder if this will be highlighted in the updated presentation.
The other thing that struck me was the sheer number of melanoma trials going on. Surely some have got to work?
Morning TF, all,
You posted:
"I see that MPC is a 'Patient' meeting - I wonder how that works? (i.e. given that most Patients have limited understanding of science). "
A tad condescending I thought. Why shouldn't patients with life threatening conditions have the opportunity to find out about treatment options and tell their story?
You could argue that patient testimony is the ONLY thing of importance. After all, drugs don't get approved on laboratory results and scientific papers. They get approved through RESULTS in patients.
I would have thought patients considering going on a clinical trial would want to know what the drugs are and how they are supposed to work.
You still don't get it do you? It's not "all about the science". It's about how the science actually works in real people and having the funding to see it through.
Bojo,
I'm glad the answer helped you. I too am a non-scientist so I may have reached the limit of my ability to help!
Other than to say.
The critical factors are number of T-cells and the potency of the t-cells. Both of these can be measured. The first measure as to potency was carried out pre-clinic in mice. Presumably the same tests can be carried out on the humans in the clinical trial.
I guess the upshot is, if they find a large number of potent cells, they can predict the chance of clinical benefit early. This could result in an earlier offer (to buy)
Over to the real scientists.......
Bojo,
Destruction of the tumour can only occur if it is infiltrated by killer T-cells. Normally these would be CD8 cells. I guess this is what you meant by "the obvious"?
If there are CD4 (helper) cells as well, even better.
Modi1 induces the production of cytotoxic CD4 cells making them killer cells as well.
So, if you can get CD8,CD4, Modi induced Cytotoxic CD4 and the checkpoint inhibitors INTO the tumour then you have an environment that gives the best chance of it being goodnight tumour.
So I guess it IS what Pharma want to see - especially before parting with big wads of cash!
Interesting thread title - well done on your purchase GF.
I hope dragon finally managed to bag a few now the spread has narrowed.
Interesting, 65648 is the zip code for Fair Grove, Missouri. Appropriately it is right next door to Pleasant Hope and only a few miles from Springfield- DOH!
Ray, punctuation is important. I read it as coffee-knowing scientists which stumped me a bit. After Jackdaws question I realised it could only be coffee, knowing.... as it is the only thing that made sense as a response to Mia's post.
Jackdaw, there is nothing wrong with Ray's sense of humour, after all, he supports Burnley! My sense of humour is better - I support Birmingham City (someone has to)
Bermuda, I agree with you, I too am surprised that Immunobody has been given a lower chance of success than Moditope. I'll do some number crunching tomorrow and post my thoughts.
Dragon,
I presume you are wanting to buy?
If you want to buy, I assume you believe in the potential here and are hoping for an exit price of 36p, 50p or even a pound?
In which case buy at 11p and wait for the gap (from 10) to close.
The (perceived) large spread will doubtless continue so tomorrow 11/12, in a the future 20/21.
I say perceived as you probably won't have to pay 11p. If you do, change your broker.
Balerno2, TF,
I agree with your views. I don't know whether there will be anything new or not at the Tuesday presentation. I don't think we should expect any and I don't think we should be surprised if there isn't.
What we do know is that there is going to be a LOT of money required to get either SCIB1 or MODI1 through trials and to market. That money will either come from:
A buy out by a big pharma. They will want to pay "fair value" currently 36p. They may have to pay a premium to that - who knows?
OR
Fund raises. This will involve further dilution. The extent of the dilution possibly being mitigated by cash generated from Avidimab and Glycans. Again, who knows?
So either way, there is no harm in raising your profile and putting yourself in the shop window so to speak. The existing news and data is compelling enough isn't it?
AIMO
Well first and foremost you have to feel for any patients for whom this treatment is not working. For many this will be their last chance saloon.
As far as Scancell goes, there maybe a danger of immuno-oncology treatments all being tarred with the same brush. I suppose it could go the other way funds being pulled from car t need somewhere to go.
So if you combine this latest revelation with previous analysis we can predict with a fair degree of certainty that the bombshell news we have all been waiting for the past decade (or more) will land on a Tuesday in October!
Full analysis in case anyone is interested :)
January 26 7.4%
February 26 7.4%
March 26 7.4%
April 29 8.2%
May 20 5.7%
June 28 7.9%
July 27 7.6%
August 32 9.1%
September 37 10.5%
October 46 13.0%
November 25 7.1%
December 31 8.8%
Well it would appear, statistically, that it is "dry" January in terms of news with 7.4% of the annual total being issued this month. No worse than February, March, July and November but better than the driest month which is May at only 5.7%
The news glut appears to be October coming in at 13% *
* figures taken from all Scancell RNS from 2010 to 2021. I haven't got round to doing 2022-2023 yet but I imagine they won't alter the figures significantly.