Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
The term "cheap buyout" keeps popping up without actually defining what "cheap" means.
As many have already stated there is absolutely no chance of a buyout at the current share price (11p) which has been described as "derisory" by our second largest shareholder.
The share has been valued at nearly three times that (30p) by Trinity Delta. This takes into account the likelihood of success (risk) and when returns will be materialised (time). Both of these have been on the Conservative side. Any bid would HAVE to be at a premium to current value (not price). A 50% premium wouldn't be unreasonable (45p). Even that may be considered cheap by Redmile, Vulpes and some private investors.
So to those worried that Scancell are vulnerable to a takeover I'd say they are but a a price most shareholders would be happy with, certainly not 11p!
Bob,
"They have Immunobody at 5 to 10% success. I think it should be a bitt higher than that!!! "
Fwiw , so do I. But therein lies the problem - it's anyone's guess. Hopefully the opportunity to buy at 11p will pay dividends when it reaches 100%. The risk takers will be rewarded.
Bob,
"People can say your nuts but a fair valution is £10b to £40b"
That may well be a fair valuation once trials are complete, approval granted and the treatment being taken up by the major health care bodies. That is a long way off.
Sadly, the valuation today has to take into account 1) risk and 2) time to be revenue earning. TD take these factors into account and have come up with a value today of 30p.
This should automatically increase with the passage of time.
Violin,
"makes one wonder why on earth one of those companies don't snap up Scancell while we are sitting at a miserable sub 100m market capital."
It's because there aren't enough shareholders stupid enough to sell for a "derisory" 10p. The price is an irrelevant figure representing what a fraction of a percent are desperate enough to sell at any price. The majority of these sellers probably shouldn't have invested in the first place - due to lack of research or an inability to hold long term.
I have found it quite amusing following the "under valued" thread. It isn't "undervalued". It is "valued" by Trinity Delta at 30p today, and multiple pounds by 2030 (if trials are successful). We need to be viewing this as "underpriced" rather than "undervalued".
I'd be fairly certain that any bid under £1 would not be considered by enough holders to effect a takeover.
As Oscar Wilde said, "there's a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing"
" It's good to see Lindy Durrant being given the opportunity to present those results at one of the biggest scientific confences in the World and at a time when there is renewed hope and interest surrounding the whole field. She deserves this moment and I hope she enjoys every second."
Well said Bermuda, totally concur.
Matt,
Firstly, thanks for the welcome dose of reality. I was beginning to think my recollection of LD saying don't expect any significant funding from Genmab for five years was a false memory. So thanks for confirming it wasn't.
But, she did not rule out smaller payments being made for milestones that may happen in a shorter time frame. I took that to mean similar to the upfront payment. Hopefully this will mitigate the need for more dilution.
Secondly, I don't think being sold short is a significant worry. 1) because Scancell wouldn't accept it and 2) because no big pharma is going to make a low ball offer. JMC at the AGM said big pharma were awash with cash but very risk averse. So they would rather wait for data, reduce the risk and accept they will have to pay more ultimately.
So no danger of a 30p offer next week but perhaps a chance of a £1-£2 offer in a couple of years if all goes to plan in the trials.
Lastly, you talk of shareholders being 'hammered' with dilution. Unfortunately, getting a drug to market takes a lot of money so dilution is an inevitability. This is why the pie in the sky valuations of £8, £10, £12 were never on the cards.
Balerno, Ray,
You are both partially correct. The initial investment for both Vulpes and Redmile was at 5.5p. Redmile were issued loan notes at a redemption price of 6.2p.
The larger investment came later with Redmile buying a significant chunk at 13p. Redmile sold some CLNs in order to win the vote on the 13p investment which was opposed by Vulpes.
Taking all this into account, I worked out the the average price paid by Redmile was 10.6p
I don't think anything major has occurred since to alter that too much.