Member Info for RuckRover

Just type "Scancell MacMillan" into google search and it will bring up the 24th November link.

Djph1,

I think ray has pinpointed the difference

"In summary, it is possibly concerning the fact that there are no longer active cohorts for Ovarian and TNBC."

The October 2024 report showed one entry for the whole Moditope Peak sales £3.5b with 12.5% success probability.

In the November 2025 report, the two targets in trial have been separated out. These have peak sales of £1B with a 15% probability. The remaining two have peak sales of £1.5b with 5% probability.

So combined, £2.5 peak sales.

So not been downgraded too much.

Desouzaa,

£1 is eminently achievable given the pipeline and data so far.

£2.82 is quite possible - there are figures to support that.

I don’t think anyone “ridiculed” the £8 suggestion. It is of course possible but a much longer way off than £2-£3.

There was a time when it was more feasible but dilution has knocked that hope. Even TD’s previous figures showed £8+ if you strip out the probability and time elements.

Don’t get me wrong I’d be delighted if it made £8 but I’d already be out long before that happened.

Crusty,

" Or is that only after the 1bn dilution has taken place?"

Of course it after dilution has taken place. If you're projecting a forecast for a future date you have to consider all the events that could happen up to that date. You could say the same about sales.

Crusty,

Feel free to apply whatever dilution factor you want. I've personally gone with 100%. That makes Scancell worth 18.7p today with a possible future value of £1.76 to £2.82. I'd m be happy with that!

I've been doing a deep dive into the TD valuation.

The last detailed valuation with breakdown by platform was 17 October 2024.

The SP estimate then was 33.5p, yesterday's was 36.7 and increase of approximately 10%

A couple of subtle changes (low impact) $-£ exchange rate was 1.20, now 1.25. Shares in issue was 929M, now 1040M.

The most significant change was the probability of success for iSCIB1+ - up from 5-10% to 30%.

This took the previous SP estimate from 5.9p to 18.8p.

This would have had a massive impact on the overall SP but is offset by a much smaller estimate for Moditope which despite a increase in probability from 12.5% to 15% was down on estimated sales of £1B down from £3.5B previously. (not sure why they have done this)

Avidimab is not mentioned at all in the new report.

So today we have a rNPV estimate of 36.7p

If you remove the risk element (and assume 100% on all platforms) this equates to £3.47 per share

If you remove the risk and time element this equates to £5.55 per share (by 2030).

Of course, It will cost money to get there so factor in 1 billion extra shares (1B at 10p would raise £100M) and those numbers become

Risk adjusted NPV £0.187p

Remove risk £1.76

Remove risk and time £2.82

You're right to be skeptical—Inanaco’s £8 target for Scancell looks wildly optimistic compared to broker forecasts of 30–36p and a current share price around 10p. It’s not just off the trolley—it’s halfway to Mars.

EE,

"which simply highlights the point that asking AI such questions is pointless and misleading."

No more misleading than those who tout such ridiculous valuations. AI is far too polite to say what it really thinks of them.

Yes, agree a nice summary. It doesn't completely poo-poo £8 but makes the point it is highly unlikely, even spelling out the scenarios in which it could happen. Let's hope 36p is achievable in the not too distant future.

WTP,

It's just my opinion, feel free to express a different one.

Yes, if they are available AND positive we may get news before the AGM. If they are not positive then they will probably hold back until the AGM is out of the way.

Chester,

If there is a connection between timing of news relative to the AGM date it is tenuous at best. If there is a pattern, it is that positive news ( trial data) is released a few days before whilst negative news (cash raise) is released after.

On one occasion, the AGM was postponed while the Redmile further proposed investment disagreement was resolved.

It wouldn't surprise me if we had a MODI1 update in the run up to AGM. That is of course dependent on the results being available.

TF,

Yes Ruck - helpful as ever.

Do I detect a little sarcasm?

Crusty,

"E where can we find that patient commentary?"

Go the macmillan online community site and search for modi

"You're most definitely a glass half full guy :-)"

More a brain half empty I'd say :)

Moon,

"With respect RR, I don't think you can speak for other shareholders".

It wasn't my intention to "speak for" other shareholders. I was merely expressing my opinion that I don't think many LTHs think this will be £8 soon. Don't forget, in 2012 many of us had targets ranging from £3.20, £6, £8, £12 right up to £25. A lot has changed since then not least is the number of shares in issue has quadrupled.

"And what it is 'worth' is not necessarily related to the current sp or the broker target"

I've never said it was and I agree totally.

"It's why research is so important if you're going to put your hard-earned cash into AIM stocks".

Yes, which is why I find the TD report so useful. It covers all aspects of the investment - the science, the commercial opportunities and considers risk and time. It's not just a case of declaring the science "no risk" and then plucking a figure of £8 out of the air.

"I for one can see £8 is quite possible within a relatively short time frame."

I can't but I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong! TBH I'd be more than happy with £1

Dracula,

I don't think you will find any long term holders who think this will be £8 anytime soon. It's possible but years away.

Realistically, we could expect a rerate to 30p plus since that is what this is worth right now. That could happen quite soon with a bit more positive data. A takeover may command a premium say, 60p. Getting further down the development path could result in a bit more so a pound in the next couple of years could be possible.

So this was posted by Marcus, copied from this is money site.

So if that was from AI I guess it would be lambasted?

“ The risk is still high. A randomised trial is expensive and demanding, and further funding will be needed.”

Oh but I am. I don’t even need a pole! ;)

“ AI is really dangerous, ruck.”

Yes EE I agree, it can be and possibly will be. Once it has gained control of nuclear weapons we are at its mercy.