Member Info for RuckRover

BuddhaBob,

"Appreciate this is a piece of string question so just humour me please 😁"

The piece of string question is easy - 2 inches.

"I'm doing some financial planning and I'm trying to work out where the SP will be in 3 years time.

IF everything goes to plan, what do you realistically see the SP reaching within that timeframe?"

I use the Trinity Delta forecasts, which are very conservative, to do some projections.

They have an estimate right now of 30p. This is a risk adjusted, NPV calculation. So in order to work out the value "IF everything goes to plan" you simply fast forward to 2030 and assume all risk has gone. This will give you a figure around £5 per share.

IF this went in a straight line (which it never has) in order to get there you would need to achieve the following:

End 2025 £0.70

End 2026 £1.40

End 2027 £2.10

End 2028 £2.80

End 2029 £3.50

End 2030 £4.20

End 2031 £4.90

It also assumes that the timescales are met. If it slipped by 3 years you would get:

End 2025 £0.50

End 2026 £1.00

End 2027 £1.50

End 2028 £2.00

End 2029 £2.50

End 2030 £3.00

End 2031 £3.50

Then of course you need funding until 2031 or longer if it slips. How much is impossible to say as it depends on what the cash burn is/will be, the price raised at and taking into account any non-dilutive funding that mitigates the need to issue more shares. Personally I factor in 100% dilution - another billion shares issued. So halve the above numbers.

Also, someone may step in with an early offer, for example £1 per share now. Would this be accepted? Who knows.

So too many variables to estimate with any level of confidence but if I was looking three years out I would say worst case (assuming success) 75p best case £2.10.

AIVHMO of course!

Ray..." VD, I think UXM is a definite contender for being chief moaner 😂"

The difference is ...I've been moaning for years 🤣

I think you should draw up a list of contenders and put it to the vote.

C11,

20k more me as well. This has much further to go IMO.

GF,

Could you kindly explain what in my last post warranted you calling me a "plank"?........

GF,

"unlike you, I have a separate trading pot".

I have a separate trading pot.

Does that help?"

Ah yes, it does - thanks. You jumped in on a discussion about "buy and hold" strategy I was having with Botski and I missed the bit about you being a trader in the small print. Apologies.

GF,

"unlike you, I have a separate trading pot".

I have a separate trading pot.

Does that help?"

Ah yes, it does - thanks. You jumped in on a discussion about "buy and hold" strategy I was having with Botski and I missed the bit about you being a trader in the small print. Apologies.

Sorry GF, what exactly have I made up? Happy to issue a retraction if I have.

GF,

"Just a shame you were not as astute"

I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion.

Like you, I have bought and held a substantial holding.

Like you, I have moved my investments to an ISA so my 11.2% return is tax free (would be 8.5% otherwise)

Unlike you, I have a separate trading pot which has made substantial returns. Who's the more "astute"?

Botski,

Yes I get that. That's why I said " If you mean a buy and hold strategy over the next three months I may tend to agree with you."

Botski,

"you'll understand that the buy and hold strategy is far more likely to reap rewards for you than trading in and out."

A little misleading I would say. If you mean a buy and hold strategy over the next three months I may tend to agree with you. However, over the long term a buy and hold strategy has been a complete disaster as an investment.

I know this from bitter experience. I can tell you, a have made far more money trading than holding over the 13 years I have been invested. Even if this were to quadruple tomorrow, the annual rate of return would be just 11.2%. Rather modest for a high risk share such as this.

Besides, without traders there would be no price movement- up or down so please don't try to discourage it! The real value will be achieved when Scancell is bought out. I do feel that could be sooner after the recent media coverage. Until then I do expect the price to rise further as more data comes in.

Sci,

That's hilarious. A bit like contestants on mastermind who haven't got a clue what the answer is but don't want to say pass and say "sausages".

Four/five laughing emojis - the equivalent of "sausages".

Come on Sci, surely you can string a sentence together to make an argument? Or are you missing the ability to create a thread where you are able to ban everyone on?

Well I don't like it. The navigation is awful.

They need to tidy the logo up its to fuzzy. Crisp geometric lines would look better. Imo of course, all a question of personal preference.

Crusty,

Whilst it is true they have an obligation to inform price sensitive information when it comes to trial data they can exercise some flexibility. They could, if they chose, release patient by patient, or, more sensibly when a certain number of patients have been analysed. Or, as in this case, to coincide with an announcement made at a conference.

Nice to see a bit of blue for a change.

C11,

"Therefore based on that recent history, the odds are favourable for receiving something this month"

Well it was a load of claptrap when you first posted it and it still is. One of the biggest fallacies perpetrated in statistics - the so-called "law of averages". There's no such thing. There is of course the probability of getting an RNS in any given month but that probability is constant.

The more likely influence is that news is held back for bigger impact or to coincide with other events such as a conference as seems the case here.

C11,

I have to agree with TF. It's verging on stalking now. I find the best filter is the brain. There are numerous posters across the various boards who post completely unrelated links. It only takes a couple of seconds to scan and move on.

As it happens, I was looking for that clip yesterday and couldn't find it so I'm grateful to cleaner for reposting.

Lofas,

"There is no news and no real data to justify value more than 8p. "

I think wtp's response was spot on - LOL.

Have a look at the data, news and estimates presented in the Trinity Delta reports. Even with their strict adherence to published FACTS, an ultra conservative view of probability of success and an expectation of no revenue until 2030 they still come up with 30p.

Martin Diggle, who I assume knows a bit more than you and I described 17p as "derisory". So we are currently trading at half derisory.

Your comment implies you think there IS data to support 8p. In that case, given what I have said above, you should be filling your boots at this price - you have nothing to lose do you?

Cleaner,

Australia would be a great shout in my opinion. A you say, they have a government who are very supportive in the scientific research space and...

They have the highest incidence of melanoma in the world so recruitment could be easier.

Scancell are known in the upper circles of melanoma treatments

The response rates to SoC in Australia are higher than the UK.

Thanks JB1.

"More applicable to more patients" - I like it.

Johnny,

Thanks for that.

So she says double check point inhibitor treatment in Australia is seeing 50% "cured". Interesting that it is higher than the 44% seen in the UK.

Also I note she advocates the best approach is prevention and using the routine advocated in the slip, slap slop slogan.

Wtp,

"I don't recall Scancell attending/presenting at so many consecutive conferences?"

It looks like you are right. They presented at 4 conferences in 2022, 6 in 2023 and 10 in the past 12 months.

Not too surprising as there has been more and more to say as time goes on. More research, more trials and more data.

Some are attended annually, these are new the past 12 months:

BIO International Convention (San Diego, USA, June 3-6).

Antibody Engineering & Therapeutics Europe (London, UK, June 4-6).

ADC & Radiopharmaceuticals Pharma & Biotech Partnering Summit (Boston, USA, September 9-10).

16th Annual PEGS Europe (Barcelona, Spain, November 5-7)

Chester,

That aligns with the Trinity Delta estimates

Modi/Scib 2029

Glymab/Avimab 2030

In theory the SP should rise as time and risk reduces.