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Ray,
"I seem to remember back in the day (I think it was 1897 š) , that 1 billion dollars was bandied around at the time of the first SCIB1 trial for an outright sale"
Don't forget, back then there was only SCIB1 for Melanoma in play.
If we use the Trinity Delta methodology and figures we come to a similar figure - USD 855M for SCIB1 in melanoma. The USD/GBP is slightly less than back then.
$855M equates to 57p per share (1.2B share in issue).
Currently, the TD valuation of 36.7p attributes 5.17p to SCIB1 (melanoma). The difference of course being risk (7.5% chance of success) and time taken to get there (2030).
As the data comes in and time moves on, both risk and time will reduce. So you could draw a line from 2023 5p to 2030 57p and see how much it is worth each year (and chose your exit point accordingly). In reality, I think the early data will be most significant so larger rises in the early years flattening off later on.
So the actual valuation of the company hasn't changed that much in 11 years ($1B) but the price per share has (Ā£3 to 57p). This is because back then we had 224M shares in issue now we have 1.2B.
TF,
I'm fine, thanks for asking. Trust you are too?
I've been quiet as there's not much to say at the moment. The 11p offer seems to have set a ceiling as well as a floor. No logic to that, given the risk and time to get to revenue these are worth 36p (according to TD). I'm comfortable with that, what a few shares changing hands go for is not that relevant in the grand scheme of things.
We've been waiting and hoping a fair old time haven't we LOL.
The quick approval was granted by the MRHA in the UK. We had just left the E.U. and were not answerable to any one else. There were no other vaccines available at the time. With a number of vaccines now available there are no legitimate reasons to cut corners.
Well said ciaskin, you just beat me to it.
It is difficult to draw conclusions from a single slide shown out of context. Personally, I think it is totally inappropriate to have an image of a grave when discussing treatments for a disease that has such a high mortality rate.
The fact is, there are a plethora of different approaches to cancer care and treatment. With such a devastating disease with such a wide range of victims it is only right and proper that every avenue of defence is investigated.
There are a also a wide range of applications under the "personalised" therapy umbrella: Genomic profiling, targeted therapies, immunotherapy (yes - something Scancell have been involved in), Car-T cell therapy to name a few. To write all "personalised" therapies off is unprofessional and unscientific. There have in fact been many successes in personalised treatments and many trials that have shown potential for this sort of treatment.
So I'm not sure what was being inferred or even implied here. I sincerely hope it isn't hand wringing at the (supposed) failure of one branch of oncology that may result in a few pence on our share price. Surely no one would be that callous?
TF, this is about Scancell. Have you not read my post of yesterday 22.05? The summary from google bard on the Scancell pipeline and opportunity is spot on IMO. It is balanced and accurate. Maybe that's what you don't like?
And if you want the science behind it all, look no further than the TD report - it has everything.
Ray,
True. Very little has changed in the 46 years I have worked in IT. It's still all about input-processing-output. The mechanisms of input and output are more varied and the processing is much faster that's all.
The "GIGO" principle still holds true - Garbage In, Garbage Out!
I also asked Google bard if it could confirm the chatgpt 183p estimate. This was its reply:
"
ChatGPT quoted 183p per share as the value of Scancell's IP based on a report by Equity Development. However, I cannot find any evidence to support this valuation. The latest Trinity Delta estimate, which is considered to be more reliable, is 36.7p per share.
It is possible that ChatGPT was using a different valuation methodology or that it was using outdated information. It is also possible that there was a typo in the report that ChatGPT was using.
Whatever the reason, it is important to be skeptical of any valuation that is significantly different from the consensus estimate. It is also important to remember that valuations are just estimates and the actual value of Scancell's IP could be much higher or lower than the current estimate."
I think the moral here is take anything chatgpt comes up with with a large pinch of salt. That applies to a number of poster here (and over there) !
Here's a much more accurate and informed response from Google bard (same question)
"Scancell's IP is estimated to be worth up to 36.7p per share based on a recent report by Trinity Delta, a leading valuation consultancy firm. This valuation is based on a risk-adjusted net present value analysis, which takes into account the potential commercial value of Scancell's IP, as well as the risks associated with developing and commercializing its products.
It is important to note that the value of Scancell's IP is subject to change and the above figure is an estimate. The actual value of Scancell's IP will depend on a number of factors, including the success of its clinical trials, the regulatory approval process, and the overall market for its products.
Scancell has a strong IP portfolio, with over 100 patents granted or pending worldwide. Its IP covers a range of technologies, including its Modi-1 cancer vaccine platform, its AvidiMab antibody platform, and its GlyMab antibody platform.
Scancell is currently developing a number of products based on its IP, including Modi-1, which is in a Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of melanoma. Modi-1 is a novel cancer vaccine that targets cancer stem cells. Scancell is also developing a number of other products for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases.
If Scancell is successful in developing and commercializing its products, its IP could be worth billions of dollars. However, it is important to remember that biotech is a risky sector and there is no guarantee of success."
Moonparty,
I tried chatgpt and got the same response that you. I asked for a link but it was unable to substatiate the 183p figure. When I questioned the accuracy and interogated further, I got this reponse:
"Thank you for bringing this to my attention. According to a recent report by Trinity Delta, Scancellās IP could be worth up to 36.7p per share based on a risk-adjusted net present value analysis 1. However, please note that the value of Scancellās IP is subject to change and the above figures are estimates. "
I'm intrigued where the 183p Equity Development figure comes from.
I'm also intrigued how a post of this unsubstantiated, possibly erroneous figure managed to attract 15 recs. Wishful thinking no doubt LOL!
DeAar,
Apologies, it goes up to January 2022 so still out of date.....
"I'm sorry, but I don't have access to real-time financial or stock market data, and my knowledge only goes up until January 2022. The IP value (Intrinsic Value) of a company like Scancell Holdings can change frequently based on various factors, including its financial performance, market conditions, and investor sentiment. To find the most up-to-date IP value of Scancell Holdings or any other company, I would recommend checking a financial news website, using a stock market analysis tool, or consulting with a financial professional."
Moonparty,
What version of chatgpt are you using?
I asked it the same question and got a different answer....
"I'm sorry, but I do not have access to the specific intellectual property (IP) valuation of Scancell Holdings or any other company as my knowledge is not up-to-date with current financial data. IP valuation is typically a complex and proprietary process that may involve evaluating patents, trademarks, trade secrets, and other intangible assets held by a company."
I'm using version 3.5 which I believe is the latest publically released version available.
Morning Moonparty, all,
Don't forget that chatgpt's database only goes up to September 2021 so any information will be out dated.
Equity Development are part of Trinity Delta but I cannot find any numbers that match the 183p per share quoted.
The latest TD estimate (in the 23rd October 2023 update)...
"Our Scancell rNPV based valuation is Ā£300.1m, or 36.7p/share. "
It might be useful to know where chatgpt got its numbers from.